
The Dean hit 53% of his games this year, winning 76, losing 67 and pushing on 7. The win totals per NCAA and the NFL were 50.7% and 55% respectively with the breakdown as follows:
NCAA: 32 wins, 31 losses, 3 pushes
NFL: 44 wins, 36 losses, 4 pushes
It is said that one must hit about 53% of their wagers in order to make a profit, and be closer to 55% in order make a ‘comfortable living’. My first problem with that is, whose definition of comfort are we going by? My second problem is that it assumes even weight being give to all wagers. In no way do all wagers deserve the same weight. That is why I make use of my Star Ranking Method to decide how much to wager per game. By effectively implementing the Method I was able to realize earnings of 26.25% on my NCAA games and 70% on my NFL games and overall earnings of for 52.5%. My original pool of money for this season was $5,000, $2,000 for NCAA and $3,000 for the NFL; my earnings totaled $2,625.00. It will be awfully tough to find an investment that recognizes that return and I was able to do it in only 5 months. Keep in mind that I was able to achieve that return not having the greatest of years in terms of Ws and Ls. Where I made up for my mediocre overall percentage was in my Star Rankings.
When looking at only games ranked 3-stars or higher, my overall earnings go to 65.40% (48% for NCAA and 77% for NFL). Some may ask, why play anything lower than a 3-star? and I agree. One reason I played so many 1 and 2 star games this year is that I wanted to publish my opinion on some high profile games. There were also times that I just wanted to have some action on a game and didn’t feel very confident in either team. The lower Star Ratings allow you the freedom to have some action without jeopardizing your earnings. You may not use the freedom because of web-content but you may use it to play a Monday Night game or to place a wager on your favorite team. It grants you freedom to bet, without killing your bankroll.
Below are the percentages I applied to the various Stars; keep in mind that conventional wisdom from professional handicappers when giving advice to bettors is to not wager more than 2% - 5% of your bankroll on any one game. My Star Ratings contradict that, but for good reason. The reason is I have faith in the processes and procedures I use to arrive at what is the appropriate rating to give for each game.
These percentages can be modified to your tastes, but in order for them to be truly effective there needs to be a difference that matters between the different Star levels. To better understand the Star Rating Method and to learn how to establish solid criteria that you can have faith in go to the Star Rating Method section of the site.
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