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Super Bowl XLVI: New York Giants vs New England Patriots

The Dean went 2-1 last Sunday, wishing I could’ve gotten rid of that half-point on the Ravens line, but Giants moneyline and taking the points made for a profitable day. Let’s Go!

New York Giants +3, +120 vs New England Patriots -3, -140 O/U=53.5: Well here it is, the culmination of an entire year of football under wrapped up into one superhyped game in a dome in Indiana. To remind you all, the Dean Brownski website had predicted the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots to meet in the Super Bowl. One out of two ain’t bad, and to tilt the board in our favor the Falcons lost to the team that did make the Super Bowl from the NFC, the New York Giants. Kudos to Dean’s scouts and the theory of the Wisdom of the Crowd. But now none of that matters it’s all about this game its all about these two teams its all about which one of them will walk off the field today in Indianapolis, Super Bowl champs.

Let’s get down to it. Both of these teens have done great things this year. Conversely both of these teams certainly have their flaws. Looking back on the year the New England Patriots have won 10 straight games since losing to the New York Giants in Week 9. The Giants winners of five straight games have a regular-season record that is certainly much more flawed than the Patriots regular-season record is. ABbd loss to the Seattle Seahawks, two losses to the lowly Washington Redskins, a bad loss to the Philadelphia Eagles when Vince Young was their quarterback. However, when you tally up the good wins for each team the playing field seems a bit more level. The patriots regular-season winning streak of 8 games all came against opponents that were under .500 at the time. Their two wins in the playoffs were against a .500 Denver Broncos team which, with all due respect, nobody really respects; and the Baltimore Ravens a game that many people feel the patriots were lucky to win. If Lee Evans catches the football were talking about a Baltimore Ravens New York Giants Super Bowl.

Speaking of luck the New York Giants don’t escape the lucky moniker either. Looking at their most two recent playoff games you could say there were lucky that the Green Bay Packers struggled so much to catch the football and you can certainly say the New York Giants were lucky that the San Francisco 49ers were unable to hold onto two certain interceptions and had a punt returner that looked as if it was the first time he ever fielded a punt. But neither team should apologize for having luck on their side. All champions can look back on their successes and point to some luck that enabled them to ultimately prevail us champions. So in my estimation both teams were lucky enough to get where they are but both teams were good enough to capitalize on the lock that was handed to them.

I made this analogy earlier in this postseason, comparing this year’s New York Giants team to last year’s Green Bay Packers team. The similarities these two teams share is that they struggled all year with injuries. Their regular seasons were good enough to get them in the playoffs but certainly not spectacular enough to make anyone think they would make a deep run into the Super Bowl. Yet last year’s Green Bay Packers team got hot at the end of the year got healthy at the end of the year and ended up running in the all the way to the championship. The Giants have had their full complement of players for the past five games and have won all 5. The patriots had their full complement of players for the last 10 games and won all 10. The difference today is the Patriots don’t have their full complement of players. The injury to Rob Gronkowski is certainly a major hurdle for the Patriots to overcome. Many people believe that the combination of Belichick and Tom Brady is enough to overcome any injury, any defensive scheme the New York Yankees can put in front of them. But is that more myth than reality? I believe so. A quick little stat, in the last four games that the Patriots played having two weeks to prepare they are 2-2. Not exactly the record of a genius and the greatest quarterback ever. The Patriots prior to this year’s two playoff wins have not won a playoff game since 2007.

Did this New York were running through the regular season as you’d expect the defending Super Bowl champion to do only to have their season get derailed by an off the field injury a self-inflicted gunshot wound by star receiver Placido Burress. Were it not for Plaxico shooting himself in the leg what we could be talking about today is the Giants taking the mantle of the dynasty of this decade away from the New England Patriots. Stick with me on this. The Giants were about to enter the playoffs as defending Super Bowl champions in 2008, a 12-4 regular-season record, number one seed in the NFC and in all likelihood heavy favorites to go all the way. It doesn’t guarantee anything but it certainly puts them in great position to have won back-to-back Super Bowl’s. Even if we don’t give the Giants anymore credit for the following two years, what we could talking about today is the Giants going for their third Super Bowl the last five years. Not only their third Super Bowl in the last five years but their second of those three against a team that has been the dynasty in the NFL for the past 10+ years. Many of these Giant players are the same from that team that upset the unbeaten Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. If not for one bonehead named Plaxico, this game could have even more legacy ramifications for both teams.

Let us talk a little defense. Both of these teams defenses, statistically speaking, rank low among the greatest of all time. But statistics can be manipulated and analyzed a million was from Sunday. In defense of the Giants defense they haven’t been healthy all year. Yards given up in the first five weeks of the season don’t have much bearing on the Super Bowl. I don’t have the statistical wherewithal to break down and analyze what those stats actually are but you take a look at the most recent games at the New York Giants have played. In the last three, the Giants defense has given up 13 points a game compared to their overall of 23. They have given up an average of 321 yards per game compared to the entire year of 367. Those stats are more important to me than the entire regular season as a whole. The Patriots also have a defense that no one considers to be great. But when you look at the statistics and you get to what matters, the Patriots defense is nowhere near as bad as people paint them to be. In listening to Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio he broke down the Patriots defense in the first three quarters of their games this year and then compared those to the fourth quarter. Through the first three quarters of their football games this year the Patriots defense held almost all opponents to under 20 points. They also entered the fourth quarter with the lead most of the time and therefore have some fourth-quarter statistics that have polluted the statistical pool. The patriots red zone defense is also very good so yards given up does not equate to points scored against. Bottom line is the Patriots defense is not as bad as the stats show.

The New York Giants offense has plenty of weapons. Two very good running backs with two contrasting styles, that’s a plus. Three very good wide receivers with great playmaking ability, that’s a plus. A quarterback who has come into his own this year, a quarterback who already has a Super Bowl championship under his belt and a quarterback that has gone into hostile environments and proven capable of beating anybody. The Patriots offense is definitely going to suffer a bit from the loss of Rob Gronkowski, but that in no way makes their offense impotent. Tom Brady’s record over the years speaks for itself, the guy knows how to win games, the guy knows how to put up points and get the most out of whatever weapons he has around him. The Patriots have a offense a scheme that can score points in bunches. The Giants defense showed in the NFC championship game against the 49ers that while they can do a very good job keeping a very average quarterback in check they also can allow for a very average quarterback to complete long touchdown passes. That is the reason for concern for the New York Giants, if Alex Smith can do it, why can’t Tom Brady?.

As I look at this game statistically speaking and injury report wise the Giants definitely seem to have an advantage. One disadvantage is that everybody seems to like the Giants which can be the kiss of death in the NFL. It will be a fast-track in the dome at Indianapolis. The Giants defensive front four, which is credited with being fantastic should be able to get pressure on Brady. Brady may have a hard time throwing the ball down the field but the Patriots don’t really want to throw the ball down the field and they’ve lost their down the field threat anyway. They can still score points, and I believe they will. The Giants receivers can certainly get open and make plays against this Patriot defense. Eli has been hot, his receivers have been hot, their backfield is healthy as is their defense. The Patriots will score, but the Giants will score more so I’ll take the Giants Moneyline +120 for five stars and the over 53 1/2 for another five stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 49-42-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +22.48%

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NFC Championship: New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

The Dean went 2-1 last Sunday, wishing I could’ve gotten rid of that half-point on the Ravens line, but Giants moneyline and taking the points made for a profitable day. Let’s Go!

New York Giants (ML) +105 @ San Francisco 49ers (5-stars):Need me to make a very strong argument that the Giants are going to win? No problem. Need me to make a very strong argument that the 49ers are going to win? Not a problem either. All week I have heard numerous arguments, stats, data, and opinion on behalf of both teams, and I agree with them all. That being said, I have identified what I believe to the most important factors and it leaves me very confidently on one side of the equation.

The Giants far surpass the 49ers when it comes to playoff experience. But if you believe the 49ers are a team of destiny, and I can see why some think they are, than it doesn’t matter about experience, they have destiny. Bottom line on this is that the Giants are not going to be negatively affected by being on the road, that’s what the experience factor does, it negates the home field advantage.

That doesn’t address everyone’s favorite NFL mantra, ‘Defense Wins Championships’. Yes it does, or at least it can. When you look at the stats for the entire year the 49ers defense is clearly better statistically. However, momentum matters so I am less interested in yearly stats and much more interested in a more recent sample. So let’s look at the last 3 games for each team. Over that span the Giants played the Cowboys, the Falcons and the Packers, all of them being win or go home games. The 49ers played the Seahawks, the Rams, and the Saints. The Giants defense has allowed 12.0 points per game while the 49ers have allowed 25.3. The Giants have allowed 311.7 yards per game and the 49ers have allowed 349.3. The Giants run defense is also allowing fewer yards per game on the ground than the 49ers defense. So, yes defense does win championships and the Giants defense is the better of the two going into this game.

Alex Smith has had a great year, but its great because of how bad his previous years were. All things being equal, Alex Smith had a good year. His throws to Vernon Davis last week were clutch and he looked good doing it. Eli Manning meanwhile has been here before, done this before. Eli Manning did have a great year, and he gets to play a defense that he has already faced once this year. For a cerebral QB like Manning, that will make a difference. Granted Alex Smith is facing the same defense he faced earlier, but its the same in uniform only. This is a different Giants defense than in Week 9.

One of the bigger factors for me is last week. The 49ers played an immensely emotional game in beating the Saints. We see it all the time, the emotional hangover, the inability to match the intensity the week after being immersed in so much emotion. The Giants on the other hand had an unemotional game.

I am taking the Giants to win outright +105 for 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 47-41-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +15.58%

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AFC Championship: Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

The Dean went 2-1 last Sunday, wishing I could’ve gotten rid of that half-point on the Ravens line, but Giants moneyline and taking the points made for a profitable day. Let’s Go!

Baltimore Ravens +7 @ New England Patriots (5-stars) and Ravens to win +250: The New England Patriots have not lost since their Week 9 loss to the Giants, which was also at home. Since then, the Patriots have caught fire offensively and compiled good defensive games to boost that unit’s shaky resume. The Ravens meanwhile have unimpressively taken care of business. The praise of Tom Brady is as high as its ever been, and the ridicule of Joe Flacco is as high as ever. Seems simple, right? Maybe, but I see this game a bit differently.

Look at the Patriots 9 consecutive win and you will find one playoff team, the Denver Broncos, who also was the Patriots victim last week. So 2 of 9 were against the Broncos, and the others were: Jets, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Dolphins, and Bills. The Ravens aren’t going to knock your socks off over that same stretch, but they did beat the Steelres twice this year, when the Steelers were still healthy; beat the Bengals when the Bengals needed the win; and, beat the 49ers. What I see is a Patriots team that is overvalued and a Ravens team that is undervalued. That is not to say I think the Patriots are overrated, but overvalued. That belief makes taking a full TD very enticing, so I will. I will also run for a nice payoff and take the Ravens to win the game at +250. When everyone goes one way, and can never see how one team will beat another, I like to go the opposite, because that’s how the NFL works.

Give me the Ravens and the 7 points for 5-stars, and the Ravens to win outright +250, also at 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 47-41-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +15.58%

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NFL Divisional Playoffs – Sunday

The Dean went 1-1 yesterday, winning a 5-star bet (Patriots) and losing a 3-star bet (Saints). Both games went as I had thought they would, only its the Saints who I thought would get the final score. The winnings were increased yesterday, so it was a good day. Let’s do it again today!

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs Houston Texans (5-stars): The Ravens have been really tough to figure out this year. The Texans have had a franchise record setting year despite losing one QB after another. The Texans ultimately ran away with last week’s game against the Bengals but that was as much to do with the Bengals being the Bengals and less about the Texans putting together a dominating performance. The Ravens home crowd really gets after it and as good as TJ Yates has been, let’s see how he rolls against a well rested Ravens defense that is also healthier today than they have been in a long time. Raven QB Joe Flacco has not had a great year, but is very capable of lighting up a scoreboard. I see the Ravens winning this one going away. I’ll give the 7.5 and take the Ravens for 5-stars.

New York Giants +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers (3-stars) and Giants to Win +270 (1-star) :The Giants are being compared to their 2007 season when they played the Patriots tough in the regular season and then beat them in the Super Bowl. I get the comparison, but I also see a more accurate comparison to last year’s Packer team. If you recall the 2010 Packers struggled through most of the year with injuries and some bad losses. They got healthy at the end of the year and also caught fire and ultimately proved to be too much for any other team. The Giants also have struggled all year with injuries and are now healthier than they have been all year. They are also a hot team with momentum on their side. The Giants will obviously not be intimidated by the Lambeau Field or the Packer mystique. The Giants are also a more balanced team. Yes the Packers offense can be ridiculously good, but the Giant offense can score with anyone. I expect a tight game and have the Giants +7.5 for 3-stars. I also see the Giants winning this game and will take them +270 for 1-star.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 45-40-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +11.94%

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NFL Divisional Playoffs – Saturday

The Dean went 3-1 last week, but unfortunately the 1 loss was a 5-star bet. A positive weekend though and we keep making money as we keep being right.

New Orleans Saints -3 @ San Francisco 49ers (3-stars): Boy oh boy did I debate this one. I went around and around, back and forth and side to side all week. The Saints on the road are different offensively than they are at home, true. The 49ers defense is good, true. However their strength is against the run. The 49ers have shown a way to win games, control the ball, make turnovers and not commit turnovers, true. I saw Eli Manning throw for a lot of yards and Drew Brees will too, true. The 49ers believe in themselves, as well they should. At 3.5 I was liking the 49ers, but at 3 I like the Saints. The action is also paying at -125 for the Saints at 3, so the book is making you pay to get the line at 3. Maybe its a trap, but I think its more about insurance for them. Saints either win with a last second or OT FG, or the win going away. I’ll give the 3 and lay 3-stars on it.

New England Patriots -13.5 vs Denver Broncos (5-stars):Here is the bottom line for me. The Broncos have a lot of wins against the teams can make a lot of excuses. Backup QBs, injured teams, etc. But when you look at the games they’ve lost, it is against teams that are better than they are and enter the game with their rosters intact. I do believe in the power of believing, and the Broncos certainly have a chance, one never knows, thats why the game is played. At the end of the day, the probability greatly favors the Broncos losing big than it does them pulling a massive upset. And it would be a massive upset. I am not interested in how ‘bad’ the Patriots defense is, stats do not tell the whole story. I’m going 5-stars on the Patriots -13.5

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 44-39-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +10.19%

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NFL Wildcard Weekend – Sunday

The Dean enters the playoffs hot! Up until Week 14 The Dean’s NFL Bankroll was in the red. Sticking with the plan, which is rooted in not panicking, and one 4-team parlay, allowed a late season resurgence. After going 2-0 yesterday The Dean is now up 11.4% and is 14-4-1 since Week 14. Let’s keep it rolling, its time to harvest!

New York Giants -3 vs Atlanta Falcons (3-stars): If you recall, DeanBrowski.com predicted a Falcons v. Patriots Super Bowl. While that possibility is still intact, The Dean is predicting the earlier prediction will not happen. The Falcons are the most underwhelming of the NFC playoff teams. There seemed to be little drama to their season. The started a bit slow, are second fiddle in their division, didn’t have any bad losses but also only accumulated one quality win (they beat the Lions in Detroit). This Falcons team flew under the radar, and while they are in the playoffs they have not lived up to the preseason hype. The Giants meanwhile have had a roller coaster season. Huge wins against the Patriots, Jets and twice against the Cowboys. Not that the Jets and Cowboys are great teams, but they were must wins for the Giants. They took the NFC #1 and #2 seeds to the wire as well. They also lost twice to the Redskins, once to Seattle at home, and had a really bad loss to a Vince Yong led Eagles team. The Giants have also dealt with injuries all year and are most likely the healthiest they have been so far this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons win, but I am betting that Eli will be on his game, the Giants running attack will be better than it has all year, and the pass rush will be too much for the Falcons to handle. I am going to lay 3-stars on the Giants and give the 3 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 @ Denver Broncos (4-stars): It seems that every Broncos opponent since Tebow has taken over at QB have come to the game with some issue of their own to deal with. The only impressive quality of the Bronco wins is how unimpressive they look in winning. Here come the Steelers with their own set of issues. Big Ben is banged up, their starting RB is out for the season, and they have a key defensive player not playing because of a blood disorder that is exacerbated at altitude. Really?! Yup, really. But cut through all of that and look at what you really have. On one hand you have an experienced team that knows how to win football games, can win in a variety of ways, and has one of the best defensive units in the game. On the other hand you have an inexperienced team that plays on a faith that has been severely shaken the past few weeks, can’t score points unless their defense or special teams scores them, and backed into the playoffs thanks to the dysfunction of their divisional opponents. Dean is going to lay the 8 points on the road and take the Steelers at 4-stars

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 43-38-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +11.39%

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NFL Wildcard Weekend – Saturday

The Dean enters the playoffs hot! Up until Week 14 The Dean’s NFL Bankroll was in the red. Sticking with the plan, which is rooted in not panicking, and one 4-team parlay, allowed a late season resurgence and up 6.3%. 12-4-1 since Week 14. Let’s keep it rolling, its time to harvest!

Houston Texans -4 vs Cincinnati Bengals (3-stars): The Texans clinched their playoff spot by beating the Bengals on the road. They did it with a last second TD to win 20-19. The Texans gave up 5 sacks, turned the ball over 5 times, yet still found a way to win. They now play in Houston and Andre Johnson is slated to start, he did not play last time. On top of that, the Bengals accumulated all their wins against below-average or bad teams. A lot of people are giving the Bengals a chance, I don’t see it. I’m taking the Texans and giving the points at 3-stars.

New Orleans Saints -10.5 vs Detroit Lions (1-star): This game should be a shoot-out, to state the obvious. I do believe the Lions have a puncher’s chance at winning, but I really don’t believe they will. A 41-34 game with 2 minutes to go sounds about right. Then the Saints score a late TD to win by 14. I’ll give the points and take the Saints, but am playing it at 1-star.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 41-38-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +6.29%

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NFL Week 14

Playing each of these games individually, and in a 5-team parlay at 1-star. One good weekend can wipe out previous week’s mistakes. Here’s to a great day!

Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ Miami Dolphins (3-stars): Vick is back. Eagles are never the same team week to week, but this week it just really feels like they’ll put it together. It is also would be appropriate, since now their games don’t matter anymore.

Chicago Bears +3.5 @ Denver Broncos (1-star): I understand the Broncos have the Tebow Train. And I know the Bears don’t seem to have a plan at QB. But I still feel the Bears win this game. For what it’s worth, the NFC North can score on the Broncos defense. 49, 45, 32 are the offensive totals for the Packers, Lions, and Vikings. The Bears also have the special teams player in Devon Hester that could give Denver a taste of their own medicine.

Atlanta Falcons -3 @ Carolina Panthers (3-stars): The Falcons are flying under the radar believe it or not. Their failure to meet preseason expectations, to date, casts them in a light that is deceivingly dim. The Panthers just went through 3 straigh road games, winning 2 of them. I believe the Panthers record-to-date up against the preseason expectations casts them in a much more favorable light than is deserved.

New York Jets -10.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs (1-star): The Jets shouldn’t be favored by this many points, so I am going to fall for it. I did believe the Jets would be better than they have shown so far. I also believe that its a long season and today is a day that they can reestablish themselves as who they claim to be.

New York Giants +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys (3-stars): I don’t see the Giants losing 5 games in a row. The Giants have had success in Dallas. The Cowboys loss last week has to still carry a weight on Dallas. The Giants, despite losing 4 in a row have not played poorly, save their showing in New Orleans. The Giants also need this game more than the Cowboys do.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 29-34-4

Parlays: 0-13-2

Bankroll +/-: -32.29%

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15% of bankroll being invested.

Straight

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 @ Tennessee Titans -3

The Bucs have been under-performing, but making improvements. I’ll take them and the points for 2-stars.

New England Patriots -3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles +3.5

Nice win by the Eagles last week to keep some hope alive and possibly salvage the season. Let’s not forget what this team really is and what it really isn’t. The Giants were pathetic last week, the Patriots will not be pathetic. I’ll take the Patriots minus the points for 5-stars.

Denver Broncos +5.5 @ San Diego Chargers -5.5

I know, I know. Tebow is magical and blah blah blah. No magic today when the Chargers score points that the Broncos can’t match. I’ll take San Diego and give the points for 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 28-31-4

Parlays: 0-12-2

Bankroll +/-: -32.29%

Last Week Results
Thursday
Ravens -3 (W)
Cowboys -7 (L)
Lions +180 (L)
Last Week
Jets -6 (L)
Bills +135 (L)
Packers +14 (L)
Chargers +190 (L)
Falcons -6.5 (L)
Lions -6.5 (W)
Patriots -17 (W)

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Happy Thanksgiving! Lions to win and Cowboys -7 for 1-star. Ravens -3.5 for 5-stars. 10% of bankroll being invested.

Straight

Green Bay Packers -220 @ Detroit Lions +180

The line has dropped almost 3 points. I’m looking in the value of a Lions win at 1-star.

Miami Dolphins +7 @ Dallas Cowboys -7

Dolphins play hard and 7 points may seem like a lot, but that’s because last week’s win over the Bills is being overvalued. Cowboys at 1-star.

San Francisco 49ers +3 @ Baltimore Ravens -3

Seems like the 49ers offense won’t struggle because Ray Lewis is out. I think they’ll struggle anyway. Loving the Ravens tonight in the battle of the Harbuaghs. Ravens at 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 27-29-4

Parlays: 0-12-2

Bankroll +/-: -33.09%

Last Week Results
Straight
Jets -6 (L)
Bills +135 (L)
Packers +14 (L)
Chargers +190 (L)
Falcons -6.5 (L)
Lions -6.5 (W)
Patriots -17 (W)