Which Arizona is it going to be?
Arizona went 9-7 during the regular season and there wasn’t a single good win in those 9. Yes, they have won 3 playoff games, and I don’t mean to take anything away from the Cardinals, but beating Atlanta is something the Cards should have done. The win over Carolina was impressive but let’s not forget that Delhomme is a poor man’s Favre and he showed it that night throwing 6 INTs. The Cardinals winning may have been somewhat surprising, but the way the Panthers played was downright shocking. Lastly, tt could not have broken any better for Arizona when the Eagles beat the Giants and the NFC championship was held in Arizona. If the Cardinals had to come to the Meadowlands to play the NFC Championship game, they would not be in the Super Bowl. Again, I do not wish to take anything away from Arizona but they beat a team in the Eagles that was 9-6-1.

The Cards got smoked by New England, Minnesota, the Jets, the Giants, and the Eagles. 6 of their 9 regular season wins came against the 49ers, the Rams, and the Seahawks. The Cardinals are a hot team, not a great team.

Steeler RB Willie Parker ran for 146 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers in the divisional round. He also ran for 47 yards against the Ravens in the AFC Championship. Is the Cardinals defense more like the Ravens or the Chargers?

One proven advantage for an underdog is to not be taken seriously. I don’t think that exists with this game. Even last year, the Giants came in knowing that they could play with the Patriots based on the last game of the regular season. But that game was at the Meadowlands, and the Patriots took what everyone believed was the Giants best shot and the Pats still won. The Steelers will not and are not taking the Cardinals lightly. Mainly because its not what the Steelers do. Other reasons are that there is the personal aspect of former Steeler coaches being on the Cardinals sideline, and it was just last year that the Cardinals defeated the Steelers in the regular season. The element of surprise is not there for the Cardinals, and that is bad news for the Red Birds.

Here are a few more thoughts on today’s game:

The two weeks off is not good for a hot team, but it is for an offensive line.
Arizona has been hot in their previous 3 games. There is nothing about the Cardinals that 2 weeks of preparation will help. The Red Birds will not suddenly become more physical. The group that benefits most from extra time to prepare is the offensive line. The Steelers offensive line will reap the benefit of the extra week.

AZ’s coach is former Steeler assistant
I was quick to hop on a possible advantage the Cardinals may have since their head coach (Ken Wisenhunt) and offensive line coach (Russ Grimm) were Steeler assistants prior to going to Arizona. If there is any advantage here it is also with the Steelers since any tendency that Wisenhunt or Grimm know about the Steelers, Dick LeBeau (Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator) knows a bout Wisenhunt and Grimm. Also, there are no secrets to the Steelers. They do what they do, and they don’t really disguise it. Unless Wisenhunt knows some secret words to upset Ben, I don’t see the Cardinals having an advantage with their coaches.

Man to man coverage won’t hurt the Steelers
Everyone keeps saying that the Steelers are going to have to go man-to-man in the secondary in order to bring pressure, and this will leave them helpless to cover the Cardinals wide receivers. This thought process is flawed for a couple of reasons. For one, the Steelers have ways of bringing pressure that do not require a depletion of personnel in the secondary. Also, the Steelers should not be fearful of going man-to-man. Larry Fitzgerald is great, without a doubt; however, his ability to catch the ball down the field over defenders is what has been spectacular, and more times than not its over multiple defenders who have good coverage on him. Lastly, the Cardinals big plays have been the result of trick plays. I don’t see the Steeler defense falling for flea flickers and the like. My last point here is, if the Steelers do pick up man in the secondary, it lessens the success of trick plays since the DBs will be focused on their man, not the trickeration in the backfield.

Great offenses may get shut down in Super Bowls, but great defenses don’t
There are times were great offenses have been kept under wraps in the Super Bowl. It happened last year with the Giants keeping the Patriots well beneath their offensive norms. It happened when the Giants beat the Bills super-charged offense in 1991. Conversely, there is no precedent for a great defense being blown out.

This is as close to a home game for Pittsburgh as can be.
If this game were in Pittsburgh would the line still be 7? The only difference will be the weather. The Cardinals were 1-4 on the road against teams with a winning record. And the one win (Panthers in the playoffs) is more attributable to Delhomme looking like the poor man’s Brett Favre that he is, more than to anything the Cardinals actually did.

My Prediction: Steelers 34 - Cardinals 13

My Wagers: 66% of my funds are going on PIT -6.5; and 33% of my funds are going on PIT -20.5 (+450)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
The Eagles sure are playing well, but the Cardinals may actually be playing better. These two teams met on Thanksgiving night and it was a one-sided Eagle win, but things sure have changed. The Cardinal defense has changed its persona since that game and has a defense that is being vastly underrated by many. In addition, the Cardinals were unable to run the football on Thanksgiving, but they played that game without Edgerrin James. Both QBs have been in this spot before, but only the Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald. Look for Larry to have a big game and for the Cardinals to pull out a win.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the third consecutive road game for the Baltimore Ravens and they are also short-handed. These two teams have played hyper-competitive games, of which the Steelers have won both. The line has moved in the direction of making the Ravens more attractive, starting at the Steelers -5 and has moved to Steelers -6, but the money is going to the Ravens. When there is Reverse Line Movement, it is a great indicator for who to place your money with. I will be taking the Steelers and give the points.

By GODZILLA

It’s 27 degrees and snowing here in NJ, so why not sit for a few minutes and cap some NFL playoff games. While looking at these teams, I try to identify strengths and weaknesses along with the actual matchups. I must say that I prefer teams with character and physicality, so I will comment on that as well as the straight statistics.
 
Baltimore @ Tennessee - 3, 4:30PM
 
This should be quite a physical match-up here, of two very similar teams. Similar in a sense that they rely on their great defenses and efficient offenses. Their offensive and defensive numbers are nearly identical, with Baltimore’s total yardage numbers looking a tad bit better on both sides of the ball. First thing that strikes me is the line is consistent with the betting public- staying at -3 points for the Titans, due to the 50/50 split in bettors’ choices.
 
When I first looked at this game, my first instinct was to pick the Titans. But now, after a bit more thought, I like the Ravens. I think the strongest unit for both teams is the Ravens defense. Despite their awful game against the NY Giants, they were solid all year long. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed (the U baby!!!) are playmakers and leaders who will make it their personal challenges to shut down the Titans offense. Then you have the Ravens offense, led by Joe Flacco. True he’s a rookie with a rookie head coach. But unless the Titans shut down the run, Flacco can feed off the McGahey and McClain runs with a little playaction and make some easy throws to Heap and Mason- two tremendous possession receivers. Of course, it doesn’t help that Kyle Van den Bosch and Albert Haynseworth are not 100% for this game, meaning that the Ravens should run it between the tackles over and over again. Also, the Titans’ offense has Kevin Mawae out, and he’s their center.
 
Other thoughts- both played tough schedules this year, but I’m a little more impressed with the Ravens, as they lost to tougher teams. The Titans got beat badly by the Jets and Texans. The Jets game proved that the Titans can lose at home and the Ravens have the type of team that can win on the road.
 
I predict the Baltimore ground game will take over, with Joe Flacco making some key throws and the Ravens defense forcing a couple of turnovers and creating good field position the entire game. Baltimore will out-muscle Tennessee (especially w/ injuries) and win a hard-fought contest in an old-fashioned football game.
 
3 points is too many here… The Titans may be overrated due to all the hype when they were undefeated. Also, if 3 points is for home field advantage, it doesn’t necessarily apply to the Ravens, as they beat Dallas and Miami in must-win games, away.
 
Ravens 17, Titans 10
 
 
Arizona @ Carolina -10, 8:15PM
 
I know that 10 points is a lot to give, especially in an NFL playoff game of this magnitude, but I really dislike the Cardinals. To me, they were overrated when I heard some asshole on ESPN claim that they were an elite team (before the slide). The Cardinals are a gutless, overrated bunch. Lok who they beat: Seattle twice, St. Louis twice, San Francisco twice. So, they’re 6-0 against crap teams! Their other two wins come against Miami and Buffalo- both at home. I am not impressed.
 
A key matchup here is the Panthers Run offense vs. the Cards’ run defense. I see the Cards are solid, allowing only 107 yards rushing p/g., but struggled against good running teams like the Giants, Vikings, New England, and the Redskins, but were able to shut down Michael Turner last weekend. I’ll take the odds that they won’t be able to shut down the Panthers’ dual threat.
 
Now… Kurt Warner… Great QB. Possibly Hall of Fame material… I like this guy and am glad he had a big year. However… (and I actually did this research, didn’t read this anywhere) his QB Rating at home is 105.5, but only 88.8 on the road. He also got sacked 6 more times on the road than at home.
And the Cards’ pathetic rushing offense cannot make up for any slack if Warner doesn’t have a monster game.
 
The Cards are a sucky team on the road, but even worse when they travel to the East Coast, being 0-5 this year. They also score less points but allow more points on the road. Carolina, on the other hand is a GREAT home team, being undefeated at home. As a matter of fact, they score 29 points and give up 13 at home, while the Cards score 23 and give up 31.
 
But DAMN, 10 points??? Yeah, why not. The Cards have no heart…
 
Cardinals 14, Panthers 27

I played a lot of stuff today aside from the customary 15-team Money Line and Point Spread parlays. There are 11 teams that are playing to get into the playoffs today. Teams like the Falcons and Panthers are playing for postseason positioning, but they are in the playoffs no matter the outcome of their respective games. Other teams like the Eagles, need to win in order to stay alive but need other things to happen. Then you have teams like the Cowboys who only have to concern themselves with themselves.

So, there are 11 teams and 6 of them play each other. (DAL @ PHI, MIA @ NYJ, DEN @ SD) that means you know that there will be 3 teams that will lose today. If 68% of teams that play with something to lose, end up losing, then you can anticipate 68% of the 11 teams that meet the criteria to lose. That means there will be 7.5 teams out of the 11 that will lose today. We have already identified three of the possible teams, and eliminated 6 teams from the equation. So out of the 5 remaining teams, there is a high probability 3-4 of those teams will lose. It is highly probable because it plays to the mean. Now this does not mean anything is guaranteed. Averages are made up of many points along the spectrum of possibilities, some very far from the average in either direction. Today could be closer to 0% than it is 68%, or it could be closer to 100%. The point is to play to the average, and over time you will be near that average. When the average being played to is above 55%, all the better.

Here are the 11 teams that meet the criteria of needing to win today:
Cowboys, Eagles, Dolphins, Jets, Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bears, Ravens.
The first 6 teams are removed from the equation because we know that one of them will lose. (I know, unlike Donovan McNabb, that a tie is possible. Bust since we already had that highly improbable event occur this year, it is that much more unlikely to occur today). Those 6 teams will produce 3 losers. We are estimating a total of 6-7 losers out of the pool of 11 teams. Now the game is turned into either identifying which of those teams will lose, OR bet the Money Lines against each of those teams and when the average is produced you will have selected 3-4 Money Line winners. Being that many of the teams you will wager on are underdogs, you can perform beneath the average and still earn money today. If only one team wins, and let’s say its the Raiders at +450, then you are almost at even when only one of those games hit.

Here are all of today’s wagers:

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 4.5%
Oakland Raiders +450

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 2.4%
New York Giants +240

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win .66%
Houston Texans -150

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 4%
Jacksonville Jaguars +400

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 2.3%
Buffalo Bills +225

4 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 5.9%
Detroit Lions +11, Houston Texans -3, Jacksonville Jaguars +10, Indianapolis Colts +3

4 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 5.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -600, Houston Texans -150, Atlanta Falcons -1000, Indianapolis Colts +125, Pittsburgh Steelers -600, Arizona Cardinals -290, San Francisco 49ers -145

15 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 729%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -600, Green Bay Packers -600, Philadelphia Eagles -125, New York Giants +240, Houston Texans -150, New Orleans Saints +105, Atlanta Falcons -1000, Kansas City Chiefs +120, Baltimore Ravens -500, Indianapolis Colts +125, Pittsburgh Steelers -600, Miami Dolphins +115, New England Patriots -265, Arizona Cardinals -290, San Francisco 49ers -145

15 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 771%
Oakland Raiders +11, Detroit Lions +11, Philadelphia Eagles -1½, New York Giants +6½, Houston Texans -3, New Orleans Saints +1½, Atlanta Falcons -14, Kansas City Chiefs +2½, Jacksonville Jaguars +10½, Indianapolis Colts +3, Pittsburgh Steelers -11½, Miami Dolphins +2½, New England Patriots -5½, Arizona Cardinals -6½, San Francisco 49ers -3

Money Line Wager Risking .5% to Win 1.25%
Detroit Lions +250

Money Line Wager Risking .5% to Win 1.18%
Buffalo Bills +235

3 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 3%
Kansas City Chiefs +3½, Detroit Lions +7, Oakland Raiders +7

3 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 1.23%
New England Patriots -350, Cleveland Browns -140, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -175

14 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 399%
Tennessee Titans +3, 108 Kansas City Chiefs +3½, New England Patriots -8, Cleveland Browns -2½, Philadelphia Eagles -5, San Francisco 49ers -4½, Minnesota Vikings -3, Detroit Lions +7, Carolina Panthers +3½, New York Jets -3½, Oakland Raiders +7, Buffalo Bills +6, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3½, Green Bay Packers +4

14 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 1297.62%
Tennessee Titans +125, Miami Dolphins -190, New England Patriots -350, Cleveland Browns -140, Philadelphia Eagles -225, San Francisco 49ers -210, Minnesota Vikings -175, New Orleans Saints -300, Carolina Panthers +160, New York Jets -190, Houston Texans -320, Buffalo Bills +235, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -175, Green Bay Packers +180

5 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 1.43%
Indianapolis Colts -1600, Tennessee Titans -160, New York Jets -350, New England Patriots -290, Carolina Panthers -340

3 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 2.93%
Detroit Lions +17, Cincinnati Bengals +7, San Francisco 49ers +6

2 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 4.94%
Cincinnati Bengals +240, San Francisco 49ers +220

15 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 2,002.18%
Green Bay Packers -130, Indianapolis Colts -1600, Cincinnati Bengals +240, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +150, San Francisco 49ers +220, Seattle Seahawks -135, New York Jets -350, Tennessee Titans -160, Pittsburgh Steelers +120, Carolina Panthers -340, San Diego Chargers -250, Arizona Cardinals -170, New England Patriots -290, New York Giants +130, Philadelphia Eagles -1000

15 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 697.52%
Green Bay Packers -2, Detroit Lions +17, Cincinnati Bengals +7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3, San Francisco 49ers +6, Seattle Seahawks -2½, New York Jets -7½, Tennessee Titans -3, Pittsburgh Steelers +3, Carolina Panthers -7½, San Diego Chargers -6, Arizona Cardinals -3, New England Patriots -6½, New York Giants +3, Philadelphia Eagles -14

Wagers are arrived at by using the Better Bettor principle of Recognition.

I have three parlays going today, two of them are the typical long shot parlays. Using Better Bettor principles, my plan is to hit one of these long shots every two years. The other parlay was created using the Better Bettor principle that is based on a recognition heuristic.

5 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 4.75%
Tennessee Titans -750, Washington Redskins +200, New York Jets -210, Pittsburgh Steelers -175, New England Patriots -300

15 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 313.21%
Indianapolis Colts -700, Jacksonville Jaguars +240, Green Bay Packers -275, Tennessee Titans -750, Minnesota Vikings -500, Washington Redskins +200, New York Giants -270, New Orleans Saints -160, New York Jets -210, Miami Dolphins -110, Denver Broncos -425, Arizona Cardinals -800, Pittsburgh Steelers -175, New England Patriots -300, Carolina Panthers -170

15 Team Point Spread Parlay .5% to Win 720.23%
Cincinnati Bengals +13½, Jacksonville Jaguars +6½, Green Bay Packers -6½, Tennessee Titans -14, Minnesota Vikings -10, Washington Redskins +6, New York Giants -6½, New Orleans Saints -3, New York Jets -4, Miami Dolphins pk, Denver Broncos -9, Arizona Cardinals -14, Pittsburgh Steelers -3½, New England Patriots -7, Carolina Panthers -3

The wagering begins today and goes until Monday night. Pretty cool. This is THE BEST holiday, hands down, that is celebrated in this country. No pretense of gift buying, or people praising some mythical virgin birth. Just be thankful, enjoy the people you are with, and have a good time. A true holiday. Enjoy it!

3 Team 6-Point Teaser Risking .5% to Win .9%
Detroit Lions +17, New England Patriots +5, Oakland Raiders +3