Texas Longhorns +4 vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Let me tell you right now that the excess amount of time between games has a greater impact on the outcome of a game than any other single factor. Period. With the amount of time that both coaches and teams had to prepare for tonight’s game I don’t really care how many times Colt McCoy was sacked by Nebraska and I don’t care how great Greg McElroy was against Florida, and I don’t care who had the better schedule. What matters the most is what coach, and his staff, is best able to teach his team the adjustments they need to make for tonight’s game.

With that in mind, Nick Saban is 4-6 in bowl games and let’s not forget how incompetent his staff and his team looked last year against Utah. You can make the claim that Utah wanted to be there and Alabama not caring because they lost the SEC Championship game, but if you believe that then you can not declare Saban a great coach. Mack Brown meanwhile is 11-5 in bowl games and has won 5 straight. Based on those stats it appears to me that Mack Brown does a better job of getting his teams ready for bowl games than Nick Saban does.

Now, don’t get me wrong, players have to get out there and get after it and Alabama sure has a stable of studs that can beat anyone in the country. They have advantages at wide receiver that could cause the Longhorn secondary fits. They also have the Heisman Trophy winner in Mark Ingram. Sidebar: Heisman Trophy winners are 1-7 in Championship games. Alabama is no slouch, not in any capacity. But let’s see how the Crimson Tide players respond when the game is close. Will they act like their head coach, lose all dignity and have temper tantrums?

Colt McCoy, the Texas QB, has a football IQ above 190. Refer back to the opening paragraph about preparation and this becomes a huge benefit to Texas. Greg McElroy of Alabama had a great game against Florida, his best game of the year. If there is any one player that the long layoff is going to negatively impact, its McElroy.

I also saw what Alabama did to Florida in the SEC Championship game, but that wasn’t the Florida offense of old. And the familiarity of those two foes creates a much different situation than we will see tonight. And I did watch Nebraska almost ruin the Longhorns year and cause the Longhorns all sorts of trouble. Like I said before, it is not relevant to tonight’s game.

Lastly, the way Alabama has already been crowned by most everyone is cause for concern. It reminds me of the 1986 Fiesta Bowl when the Miami Hurricanes faced off with Penn St. in what was supposed to be an easy Miami win. In case you don’t recall what happened in that game, Penn St. won 14-10. The other parallel I will draw is that Joe Paterno is like Mack Brown in that they get their teams ready for bowl games better than any other coach out there.

When it was first determined that Alabama and Texas would be playing each other my gut reaction was that ‘Bama would cruise. Over all the time that has elapsed since those conference championship games, I no longer see it like that. I will take the Longhorns +4 as well as take the Moneyline of +160.

Cincinnati Bearcats -2 @ Pittsburgh Panthers
While this game is not an official conference championship game, this end of the season matchup will determine the Big East Champion and could have National Championship implications depending on what happens with the Texas Longhorns tonight. Two years ago Pittsburgh went into West Virginia a huge underdog and upset the Mountaineers and kept them from playing for the national championship. Pitt can secure a BCS bid with a win today while the Bearcats look to keep their perfect season alive. Should be a tough game and I will give the points and take the Bearcats.

East Carolina Pirates +2.5 vs Houston Cougars
East Carolina is the defending Conference USA champs and they get the championship game on their home field. Houston has some impressive wins this year, but also some headscratching losses. That said, I will take the defending champs on their own field getting points.

Alabama Crimson Tide +5 vs Florida Gators
The game of the day, the semi-finals for the National Championship. Florida’s offense has not been the powerful offense from last year, but when they need plays they make them. The key is, will the Gators be able to make those same plays against a very good Alabama defense? I say no, and will take the Tide and the points. The Alabama moneyline is also a good wager in my estimation.

Nebraska Cornhuskers +14 vs Texas Longhorns
A lot of people around the country will be Cornhusker fans tonight. The Nebraska defense can be stingy, and their offense downright horrible. I still think 2 TDs is a lot for this game and while I don’t see Nebraska pulling out a win, I also do not see the Longhorns running away with this game.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +1 vs Clemson Tigers
I have to check but I believe that I placed more wagers on Georgia Tech this year than any other team. Overall it has served me well. I like the way Tech has treated me and I like the way they go about their business. I am not bailing on Tech now.

Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 27-38

Playing the Pointspreads

Texas Tech Red Raiders +6.5 vs Oklahoma Sooners
A noon game in Lubbock is not an easy task especially for a team that has struggled to find its identity since losing their best player in the first game of the season.

Ohio St. Buckeyes -11.5 @ Michigan Wolverines
The Buckeyes have secured a spot in the Rose Bowl and can complete their season by continuing the misery that is Michigan football. There will be no let-up in the Buckeyes.

LSU Tigers +4.5 @ Mississippi Rebels
Mississippi has been a disappointment since Day 1 this year. They have no right to be favored against a Top 10 LSU team.

Oregon Ducks -6 @ Arizona Wildcats
Yes the Wildcats are in the PAC-10 championship huny, but they aren’t as good as the Ducks.

Kansas St. Wildcats +16.5 @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Again, I don’t believe that Nebraska should be giving this many points to anyone.

Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 22-37

Playing the Pointspreads

Indiana Hoosiers +24.5 @ Penn St. Nittany Lions
The Hoosiers have played some tight ball games this year, usually coming out on the losing end. They did get demolished at Virginia which is a little disconcerting. However, I believe PSU is hurting from last week’s no-show against Ohio St. and I expect Indiana to not get blown out.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -13.5 @ Duke Blue Devils
Duke enters this game controlling their own destiny. If the Blue Devils run the table they could win the ACC. Right, thats gonna happen.

South Carolina Gamecocks +18 vs Florida Gators
Florida has not shown the offensive capabilities that they have in years past. If this game goes according to script, the Cocks will play tough, keep it close and then blow it down the stretch. 18 points just seems to be too many points.

Boston College Eagles -4.5 @ Virginia Cavaliers
Boston College does not have a conference win yet this year. That will change today.

Syracuse Orangemen +7.5 @ Louisville Cardinals
Syracuse is far from a good team, but they are also a far cry from what they have been in years past. Louisville is also not a good team, and they too are a far cry from what they have been in years past. That is why a line of more than a TD doesn’t jive with me.

Northwestern Wildcats +5 @ Illinois Fighting Illini
And the Wildcats are underdogs today against Illinois because . . .?!?!?!

Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 22-36

4-Team Parlay

Penn St. Nittany Lions -5.5 vs Ohio St. Buckeyes
This is Ohio State’s first real road test and they failed badly at their last road test which shouldn’t have been a struggle. I am talking about their 26-18 loss at Purdue. From Columbus to Cleveland Ohio St. backers are losing their love for Tyrelle Pryor and I don’t see that love being rekindled in Happy Valley today. Penn State’s offense is not their strong suit but they have found a little rhythm recently and should be enough to cover the 5.5 points.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -14 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Georgia Tech has done very well for me this year and I look for them to keep treating me right. In a 13-10 loss to Navy, Wake Forest gave up 338 yards rushing. And, Navy didn’t even attempt one pass! Not one! Georgia Tech should be able to run for 400+ yards today.

Oklahoma St. Cowboys -7.5 @ Iowa St. Cyclones
The Cowboys will be able to overcome the loss of Dez Bryant against the Cyclones, whose claim to fame this year is winning at Nebraska by 2 points while gathering 8 turnovers.

Oklahoma Sooners -4.5 @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Everyone wanted to start making the claim that Nebraska was back after starting the year 4-1 with their only loss being a heartbreaker at Virginia Tech. Since then Nebraska has gone 1-2 with losses to Iowa St. and Texas Tech. Meanwhile Oklahoma has overcome the loss of their superstar QB to show they are an all-around good team.

Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 22-35

5-Team Parlay

Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 vs Tennesse Volunteers
The Crimson Tide will do to Lane Kiffin’s Vols what the Gators were unable to, which is to beat them down. Reason is, the Tide are better than the Gators.

Penn St. Nittany Lions -4.5 @ Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has an offense that can be tough to stop, but Michigan also hasn’t figured out how to stop the other offense. Penn St.’s defense is the best that the Wolverines have faced this year.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5 @ Virginia Cavaliers
Georgia Tech may well be the best team in the ACC. That may not be saying much, but its enough for today against the Cavaliers.

Miami Hurricanes -4 vs Clemson Tigers
If Georgia Tech isn’t the best team in the ACC, than its the Hurricanes. Again, maybe isn’t saying much but its enough for today against the Tigers.

Iowa Hawkeyes +1.5 @ Michigan St. Spartans
I had been playing the trend of unranked teams favored over ranked teams. It is 50/50 at best so I am throwing that away. Both teams like to play close games and Iowa has been at finding a way to win the close games.

Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 22-34

Playing the Pointspread

North Carolina Tar Heels -3 vs Florida St. Seminoles
Not much makes sense about this line, but then again not much makes sense about either of these teams. North Carolina entered the year with high expectations and currently stand at 4-2 overall and 0-2 in the ACC. The most embarrassing of their losses is a 16-3 loss to Virginia. Florida St. meanwhile entered the season without much expectation but quickly raised everyone’s expectation with a classic battle against Miami and a drubbing of BYU in Provo. Aside from those two games the Seminoles barely escaped Jacksonville St., lost to South Florida, Boston College, and Georgia Tech. Coach Bobby Bowden has had to defend his existence and it seems like an eternity ago that the Seminoles were playing well.

Thursday night, home team is a small favorite, two confusing teams and a confusing point spread. I will go with the home team and give the points.

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Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 21-32

Playing the Pointspread

Wisconsin Badgers -2.5 vs Iowa Hawkeyes
An unranked team giving points to a ranked team. I am going to play this trend til the cows come home.

Arkansas Razorbacks +24.5 @ Florida Gators
There is no doubt that Florida is a very good team, but their offense just doesn’t seem to have the same power as last year. Their defense is excellent, but I am betting the Razorbacks can stay within 3 TDs of the Gators.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish +10 vs USC Trojans
I expect this game to be close. If not know, when? Notre Dame finally comes into this game with more going for them than against them, and USC actually has more questions on their offense than ND does.

Minnesota Golden Gophers +17 @ Penn St. Nittany Lions
17 points is just way to high for a PSU team that hasn’t proven a damn thing this year.

Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 20-32

Playing the Pointspread

Cincinnati Bearcats -2 @ South Florida Bulls

The Big East gets zero respect, and that is just wrong. I’ll admit that the best teams in the SEC, namely Florida and Alabama, are better then the best teams in the Big East. But the rest of the conference matches up just fine which means that should the Bearcats go undefeated this season, they should be in the BCS Championship game. Maybe I shouldn’t leave the South Florida Bulls out of that conversation either as they sit at 5-0 on the year as well.

All the BCS talk doesn’t amount to a hill of beans to either of these teams tonight. This will be a physical, knock ‘em out type of game. Both teams have a win or two that looks good, and both have a non-conference cupcake that they devoured. There is something about this Cincinnati team that makes them feel special to me. That may not be a good thing for the Bearcats based on my college football record this year, but whether they want my backing or not, they got it!

Dean Browski’s College Football Betting Record To Date: 20-23

MoneyLine: Dogs to Win

UCLA Bruins WIN vs Oregon Ducks +145
I spoke to West Coast scout Tmac By the Bay and he too likes the Bruins today. Oregon has a good feel to them right now and the line is awfully low. Coupled with the fact that the line has actually dropped while the public’s money keeps going on Oregon is a red-flag. Oregon has some injuries and the majority of the public have not seen Oregon play much this year, if at all. What they know is one of Oregon’s players punched another team’s player and there was news about it this week. Perfect game for the Dog to win outright!

Mississippi Rebels WIN vs Alabama Crimson Tide +165
Houston Nutt wins these types of games, or at least keeps them close. Nutt has won 5 games in the last two years against highly ranked, highly regarded teams and in a 6th game he covered a 12.5 point spread.

Playing the PointSpreads

LSU Tigers +8.5 vs Florida Gators
All the talk about Tebow has distracted from the many other aspects of this game. I just expect this game to be close with or without Tebow.

Iowa Hawkeyes -8 vs Michigan Wolverines
I may be rooting too much with this selection.

Florida St. Seminoles -3 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Unranked team giving points to a ranked team.

Boston College Eagles +13.5 @ Virginia Tech Hokies
I can see VA Tech controlling this entire game but never being up more than 7 the entire time.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 vs Maryland Terrapins
I believe Wake Forest is going to compete for the ACC Championship and the size of this line after Maryland just beat Clemson proves that others feel the same.

4-Team 6-Point Teaser

Indiana Hoosiers +13 @ Virginia Cavaliers
Both these teams are erratic but Indiana seems to be slightly so. I will take 13 points in this one, thank you Teaser!

Syracuse Orangemen +16 vs West Virginia Mountaineers
WVU’s defense will allow Syracuse to score and they will score enough to stay within 16.

Purdue Boilermakers +9 @ Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota has not shown that they are good enough to put anyone away, and Purdue plays close games even if they don’t win them.

Temple Owls -8.5 vs Ball St.
Temple has been so good to me all year. This week I will make it easier for them.

3-Team Parlay

Georgia Bulldogs pk @ Tennessee Volunteers
Georgia was getting anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5 points and now it is a PK. I think they will win, so I don’t care.

Mississippi St. Bulldogs -2.5 vs Houston Cougars
Houston is done.

Michigan St. Spartans -4 @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Nice job Zook, you had some of us fooled for a bit that you could actually coach. Nope!

All point spreads are from BetUS.com.