I am not referring to this as the National Championship game as my effort toward non-violent protest. Now that the politics are out of the way, here is how I see tonight’s game gong down.
Oklahoma comes in scoring 60+ points per game their last 5 games. Pretty impressive, and even more impressive if you buy into the Big XII being an elite conference. Well, here is some news for you, the Big XII is not the SEC, and it isn’t even close.
I too was fooled this year into thinking that the Big XII and the SEC were on somewhat even ground. This Bowl Season has shown me that I was wrong. All the hoopla about Texas Tech, Texas, and Missouri was shown to be all hot air as the Red Raiders were embarrassed by Ole Miss (SEC) and Texas and Missouri were very unimpressive against very unimpressive Big X opponents. The clincher to me was watching #21 Blake Gideon for Texas try to play Safety. That kid wouldn’t sniff the field at an SEC school, NONE OF THEM, yet he is the starting safety for the Texas Longhorns. That is the difference in tonight’s game. There is no weakness for the Sooners to exploit, and all the weaknesses the Gators need to have a big night.
Too much speed at every position will prove to be too much for the Sooners and the Gators will win this game by at least 2 touchdowns.
By GODZILLA
Sugar Bowl, Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, LA - 8PM
Utah vs. Alabama -9
How appropriate, Sweet Home Alabama playing in the Sugar bowl! As soon as I saw this game on the board, I thought the opening line would be close to -10, and right I was, because it opened at -11. Now, it’s at -9. I have a big problem with this, because most of the action is on Alabama, yet the line actually went down, as if most bettors are on Utah, which is not the case. To me, at least, this draws a red flag when handicapping this game. That said, I will continue with my analysis of the matchup.
Utah, although undefeated, was never considered an “elite” team. This is due to the fact that they don’t play in a BCS conference, though they have a history of playing like a BCS team. Their biggest wins are respectable (TCU, BYU, Oregon State), but I wouldn’t consider them to be Juggernauts just yet. Their toughest opponent, TCU, gave them hell, even if Andy Dalton had a bad game for TCU- uncharacteristically throwing 2 INT’s and completing less than 50% of his passes. TCU had more first downs, 150+ more total yards, and 4.9 yards per carry!!! Isn’t that some shit??? This was also AT Utah. The rest of their schedule was “cupcake city” as Dick Vitale would put it.
The level of competition that Alabama faced this year is a couple of light years ahead. They played the best teams in the SEC, their only loss being to a red hot UF team. The Tide showed their character throughout the season by blowing out teams like Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia, Auburn- and those are very tough teams, teams that I doubt Utah could compete with. THese teams are incredibly talented, though they are young and inconsistent. Alabama still put them away, and did so early in the ball game, relying on their defense to strike the will of the teams and force them into submission. Going undefeated shows resiliency and mental toughness, but to me, Alabama is a bit more tested, as they beat Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee AWAY, and AT NIGHT in incredibly hostile environments. Meanwhile, Utah played all their tough games (BYU, TCU, OSU) at the comfort of their home stadium.
The numbers Utah put up are just awesome. On offense, they are definitely well-balanced, scoring 37ppg, averaging 236 passing ypg and 136 rushing ypg. But feasting on weak prey, such as Utah State and Weber State should yield even greater results. Their offense is definitely not athletic and explosive like some of the other Top 25 teams, but they have guts, they make few bad plays, and they simply get it done in the clutch. The Utes’ defense is pretty solid, allowing 17ppg, 191pass ypg, 107 rush ypg. Pretty decent, but not jaw-dropping numbers. Their defense isn’t as quick, physical, or downright nasty as say USC, Penn State, Ohio State, or TCU’s. But they get the job done.
Alabama, after all these years, is still very much a running team. Their running game sets up Parker Wilson to start picking apart defenses and fall into a balanced attack. Their not very potent, nor are they as productive as Oklahoma, UF, or TT, but they know how to manage the clock and gain the tough yards when it counts. Alabama’s defense is what’s most impressive. They’re 2nd to USC’s defense, and I think USC’s defense is one of the best EVER. They have a ton of aggression and pride on that defense, applying pressure, tackling the right way, covering well, and just making plays.
Why Alabama will win: Physicality, competitiveness, athleticism, coaching experience
Why Utah will win: They have upset history, and the reverse line movement phenomenon
Conclusion: I see Alabama’s offensive and defensive lines controlling this game- pushing back their opponents at the line of scrimmage, and using their athleticism at the skill and sub-skill positions to make bigger plays. Utah is a smaller, slower team that’s not as tested… Alabama’s missing their best O lineman, but they had a chance to prepare the substituting talent to fill the void, and these SEC teams are always 2-3 deep in every position anyway. I see Alabama scoring 2-3 touchdowns on offense, perhaps a pick 6 or fumble return for a TD… and Utah struggling to consistently gain yards against this rabid defense. Remember: The reverse line movement scares the crap out of me. It happened to Oklahoma State, just happened to texas Tech, and this could be the Vegas Trifecta.
Alabama is like TCU on steroids, and Utah shouldn’t have beaten TCU in the first place. The Superdome will have 80% of the fans on the TIDE and their superior speed will shine of the turf.
But, all things being equal… Alabama linemen will blow the Utes off the ball, run by defenders with speed and athleticism, and show poise down the stretch. Look for the Defense to choke the Utes Offense, while the Bama Offense slowly chips away and wears down the smaller Utah defense…
Score: Utah 13, Alabama 27
Roll TIDE, roll!!!
The New York Yankees and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team share many common traits; a storied past, the most championships than any other team, a national following, their own television deals (the Yankees actually have a whole channel), and maybe a few others.
Today they share another trait, and that is having a bit of ridicule hurled at them by those that cry about unfair systems. The Yankees are catching heat for the money they are spending, and Notre Dame is catching heat for accepting a bowl bid after completing a 6-6 season.
The Yankees spend a lot of money, everyone knows it. Spending all that money obviously doesn’t unlevel the playing field, the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2000. If this field was so tilted by the Yankees spending than why haven’t they won? In case you weren’t paying attention, they didn’t even make the playoffs this year. The Yankees also just received a $26.9 million tax bill from the commissioner’s office. Did you hear the Yankees crying about it? Some other teams complain about this ‘reckless’ spending, but the Yankees are spending with much more care than any other team when you consider the size of the New York market.
The Boston Red Sox made an offer to the newest Yankee, Mark Texiera that was only 5.5% smaller than the Yankees accepted offer, yet the Boston market is a fraction of the size and financial power of the New York market. Who was really being careless? If you want to tell yourself the Red Sox are so savvy that they made the Yankees pay more than they otherwise would have, you must also believe that the Red Sox wanted Bill Buckner to let that ball go through his legs, just to make the 2004 World Series win be that mush more special.
Notre Dame meanwhile is taking heat for being treated like they are Kings of College Football, but they couldn’t beat Queens College in a football game. Now the Irish are playing in a Christmas Eve bowl game and people say they shouldn’t go, because they didn’t earn it. The rule is to have a .500 record or better and win a minimum of 6 games in order to be bowl eligible. Notre Dame meets both of those minimums, even if barely. After that we all know it’s a money grab, so why is everyone bitching and moaning? If the bowl system were fair would there be the yearly outcry of hatred for the system? Notre Dame didn’t create this system.
But more importantly to Notre Dame and their obese fool of a head coach, going to a bowl game allows the Irish to get some extra weeks of practice. Practice that is most definitely needed. Another irony of the unfairness of the bowl system is that the worst teams, those that don’t qualify for a bowl, are at a disadvantage because they miss out on practice time that the better teams, those that do qualify for a bowl, get to have. But the problems with the bowl system are obvious and comprise a list ten miles long.
Whether you love or hate either of these teams, and that is where most people fall, take the time to look at the full scope of each environment. Neither organization should apologize for anything.
The Dean is filling in for Coach Fel this week. Due to my own negligence Coach Fel was not able to be contacted for his picks. I am sure that by this time Coach Fel is knee deep in all those things that make the pain of an 0-8 football team go away . . . at least until Sunday film sessions.
Coach Fel is hitting 64% of his NCAA games through 6 weeks!!! Check in on the Fel 4-Pack every week before you place your college bets.
Here are this week’s Home Dogs That Lost at Home the Week Before
Army +11 vs. Akron
Arizona St. +7.5 vs. Georgia
8 Team 7-Point Teaser
Northwestern -4 vs Ohio
Vanderbilt +14 @ Ole Miss
Georgia Tech -.5 vs Mississippi St
Virginia Tech +11 @ North Carolina
Wake Forest +11.5 @ Florida St.
Oregon -3 vs. Boise St.
Fresno St. -1 @ Toledo
Ohio St. -13.5 vs Troy
I am going to maintain a steady practical approach to my college football wagers. That is to say, exhibit patience and keep paying attention. I have not seen enough, and teams have not played enough for me to make any definitive claims of significance. I don’t believe they should have rankings published yet for this very reason. Let the season play a few weeks before we start declaring who is better than who.
There is a trend that I have been following for the past three years and it has hit over 60% of the time. The trend is to play Hone Dogs that lost at home the week before. I identify these teams and I bet them, regardless of the spread, regardless of the team. This is simply a trend bet. For example, Syracuse lost at home last week to Akron and now faces Penn St. at the Carrier Dome. The Orangemen are +28.5. Under any circumstance other than Syracuse fitting the trend I would not touch this game. As a matter of fact, I would probably lean towards Penn St. considering the facts. But alas, these wagers are not about analysis on an individual game basis, it is an analysis of a trend. And if the trend hits 60% of the time, then all games that fit the trend must be played.
Here are this week’s Home Dogs That Lost at Home the Week Before
Syracuse +28.5 vs. Penn St.
Washington +21.5 vs. Oklahoma
New Mexico +12 vs. Arizona
The following 4 games I liked individually, so I grouped them into a 6-point teaser and got 3x my action.
California -10 @ Maryland
Vanderbilt -4 vs. Rice
Oregon -3.5 @ Purdue
USC -6 vs. Ohio St.
I know this is the second weekend of college football, but its the first where I am laying action. Here is who I am taking.
Middle Tennessee State +12.5 vs. Maryland
Washington St. +14 vs. California
New Mexico +3.5 vs. Texas A&M
The following teams are together in a 3-team 7.5 point teaser
Georgia Tech +14.5 @ Boston College. The news that Georgia Tech’s starting Linebackers are not playing causes me a little pause.
Tulane +39 @ Alabama
Oregon State +22.5 @ Penn State
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