All tournament long the strength of a team’s schedule and the strength/makeup of their respective conferences have been excellent differentiators in games between seemingly equal teams, or games that you may have been torn over. Yesterday that theme held true.
Today’s most exciting matchup is Texas vs. Memphis and the most intriguing is Davidson vs. Kansas. Lets start with the exciting and end with the intriguing.
In comparing Texas and Memphis, Texas has proven they can beat the powerhouse teams, while Memphis has not even had the opportunity to prove that. Memphis meanwhile has some quality wins, but none against anyone that is in the class of UT’s good wins. Here is a snapshot of each team’s quality wins, which I am determining as regular season opponents that made the tournament or a tournament win that should be considered a quality win. *Note: I am not including Austin Peay on either team’s slate even thought Memphis beat them in the regular season and Texas beat them in the First Round of the tournament.
Texas
Memphis
Now, Texas does have some losses that must be considered. The theme is that Texas seems to struggle on the road, note that two of their losses were redeemed when they played those teams at home. And not to make excuses for the Longhorns, please keep in mind that I loathe the state of Texas, but they shot poorly against Wisconsin and lost by 1. The losses of concern are:
The argument can certainly be made that neither losing to Wisconsin or Michigan St. is a bad loss but we must consider all losses. This is much easier to do with Memphis, since their lone loss is to Tennessee, a common opponent. The other common opponent is Michigan St. which Memphis beat and to whom Texas lost.
All that being said, an argument can be made for either team. I am siding with Texas since I believe that a close game does not benefit Memphis as their foul shooting will be front and center. In addition, I am being swayed by Texas’ strength of schedule and wins over Kansas and UCLA. I can certainly envision Memphis winning this game, but with this game being as close as it is, and with there being good value with Texas (+3.5 and +150), I am further emboldened to go ‘Horns. One other side note, for those that like to make decisions based on information that is irrelevant to the game itself, if Memphis and Kansas win then it will be the first time that all #1 seeds have made the Final Four. If you believe that the trend will continue then ask yourself who is more likely to lose, Kansas or Memphis?
Davidson is a feel good story and they have seemingly come out of nowhere. Don’t get lulled into a sense of complacency with this team however. They have won 25 consecutive games and also have played a very strong schedule. Their most notable wins have come in their last two, Georgetown and Wisconsin, and that is why Kansas should win this game.
I do not wish to take anything away from Davidson, but they have beaten flawed teams even if they were also considered good teams. The flaws that existed with Georgetown and Wisconsin do not exist with Kansas. Kansas will run, and run and Davidson will not be able to keep pace no matter how well Stephen Curry shoots the ball. Another sign of concern for would-be Davidson gamblers is the 9.5 line which indicates that Vegas does not see Cinderella having much of a shot. Now, if you are one that believes Davidson has a legit chance of winning the game, then you will drool over the +425 Money Line. I am not one of those people. I am more compelled to take Kansas and give the 9.5 or tkae Kansas with their Money Line of -550 since I feel it is a sure thing. Remember, if you think you have a sure thing in a heavy favorite and are looking for some value, don’t be afraid to wrap up your favorite with another game or two into a 2 or 3 team parlay.
As we get down to the nitty-gritty the opportunity to win some cash becomes a little tricky, or so it may seem. The key to this time of year is to not forget what you already know. This can be difficult to do. Especially with all the talk by the experts and the amateurs that get involved with the NCAA Tournament. We can be too easily swayed away from the principles that we must adhere to if we are going to sustain success. Hopefully, you have been keeping a journal or some sort of record on what you have seen throughout the year and especially within the past few weeks. Your journal is your window into what you were thinking, the things you believe in, and how those prognostications turned out. It is your report card of yourself and it is an extremely useful tool when it comes to making your decisions.
Let’s take a look at the things I referenced in my journal that brought me success last night.
For tonight, get out your journals, go with what you know and stick to it. Something to consider for this evenings two matchups
From a bettor’s perspective, let me first say that unless the line is under 3 points, I am scared to death of betting the point spread. If you like the favorite it is too easy for cheap baskets to be scored at the end of the game and blow your win. Conversely, if you like the dog and the point-spread is 3 or under the value lies in taking them to win the game outright and play the Money Line. The only time I will play a favorite with the point-spread is if I believe the favorite will win going away. Take Kansas for example last night. They were 12 point favorites over Villanova and at the end they did cover the spread. However, KU was leading the entire game by 18-20 points and Villanova was never in the game. Then suddenly, with just over a minute to go, Villanova pulls within 12 points. At no point did it feel like Villanova was going to come close to winning the game, but the bet now came down to what amounts to bullshit. Is Villanova going to keep fouling? Will Kansas make their foul shots? Will Villanova hit some desperate 3s? All of this amounts to undue stress and uncertainty in what should’ve been a walk in the park for those betting Kansas. My point here is, if you like the favorite so much and the line is high (how high is high up for argument) than look to the Money Line and a possible parlay to increase your return. All of this adds up to basketball being more of a crap-shoot and why football is the game of kings.
We are through Round 1, and whatever drama was lacking on Day 1 was more than made up for on Day 2. Two #4 seeds have been expelled, and neither are that much of a surprise. Vanderbilt lost to a very good Siena team in a game that was previewed by all the experts to go exactly as it turned out. Siena took it to Vandy from the get-go and showed the nation that just because Siena doesn’t play in a high-powered conference, it doesn’t mean they can’t play with the high-powered teams. UConn was the other #4 seed to fall, and while it was certainly an upset, it was an upset more in name than in reality. Much like Duke, this UConn team is not as good as the teams that have given the Huskies their well deserved reputation. On top of that, UConn did not finish the year strong and then lost their point guard to injury early in yesterday’s game. That being said, hats off to San Diego for salvaging a bit of pride for the West Coast Conference which took some shots for getting 3 teams in the tournament. (The other two were Gonzaga and St. Mary’s . . . both lost).
Going through the conferences, I believed and spoke loudly to all that would listen, about the strength of the Big East. They backed it up by going 7-1 in the First Round with UConn being the lone loser. Villanova was the lone Big East team to ‘upset’ their opponent, being a 12 seed and defeating 5th seeded Clemson. This reinforces what Tmac by the Bay spoke about on the show the other night, where the ACC is a top heavy conference and the Big East is strong throughout. Add Duke’s near loss to Belmont into the mix and you can make the argument that the ACC is a one-team conference this year, that one team being North Carolina. The same can be said for the Pac-10 where USC’s loss the other night leaves the Pac-10 in a position of showing their true colors of being a one-team conference, UCLA.
The Big East will really be able to claim conference supremacy with a good showing today by Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Marquette and West Virginia. Notre Dame and Marquette square off against two good Pac-10 teams, Washington St. and Stanford respectively. While Pitt plays Michigan St. and West Virginia faces Duke. Pitt is the only Big East team going today that is the higher-seeded team. From a betting perspective, this presents us bettors with tremendous value. I like both Notre Dame and West Virginia to win their games. Notre Dame is +2.5 and +125 and West Virginia is +4 and +160. I am a parlay freak, so expect me to double those two team together.
Marquette meanwhile will have their hands full with Stanford in a game that presents opposing styles of play and matchup problems for both. Marquette is +3 and +135. I am undecided on this game from a betting perspective, but all my rooting interests are behind the team from Milwaukee. Pitt finds themselves -2 and -140, not a bad bet but with Michigan State’s experience and senior leadership, certainly not a lock for the Panthers.
Speaking of the Big 10, Indiana showed their true colors last night in losing by 14 to Arkansas. Wisconsin, Michigan St. and Purdue remain from the Big 10. Wisconsin faces Kansas St. in a game of two very different teams. KSU is led by a superstar Freshman while the Badgers are the epitome of a team. Wisconsin can lull you to sleep and may not blow anyone away, but they are good and should prevail today. Purdue on the other hand beat a Baylor team in the first round that barely got in the tournament and today faces Xavier, a team that can play Purdue’s physical style and also run much better than the Boilermakers. Expect the Musketeers to win this game.
The other games not touched on are, Kansas vs. UNLV, and UCLA vs. Texas A&M. Neither top seeded team should have much trouble.
With college basketball now over I like to split my focus between the NBA and Major League Baseball. I don’t know that last time I watched a regular season NBA game from start to finish. I also am not sure it is necessary to watch an entire game, but it is vital for me to being paying more attention to team’s strengths and weaknesses. As I have discussed before, our personal insights into matchups, both at the team and individual level, are an important piece to the equation. Without it, we are left to guess, or worse yet we default to old habits and biases, which will never do us any good.
I will also be publishing a multiple part post on Progressive Betting, which is how I like to wager on baseball. In a nutshell, with Progressive Betting I wager on a team for a period of time, i.e. a series, a month, or open ended. I wager on that team every time they play and my wager is always in an amount that will progress me forward a number of units I pre-determine going into the selected time-period. I will discuss and give examples of how this system has brought me success ever since I began implementing it.
In closing, a few quick thoughts on Florida’s win over Ohio St the other night. For the first time in the tournament Greg Oden wasn’t in foul trouble, and that meant trouble for the Buckeyes. I am as guilty as the next for not giving the Ohio St. guards their due. They are a solid group and were the reason for the Buckeyes success. Florida’s game plan was brilliant in that it recognized the true strength of Ohio St, which was not the man-child in the middle but rather their guards. The Gators let Oden rack up points, but never let his teammates find their groove. Great job by Billy Donovan, please don’t go to Kentucky.
I have discovered that when it comes to my rooting interests, in games where my team isn’t playing, that I am motivated much more by wanting a team to lose than I am wanting a team to win. Fortunately for me I am not a fan of any teams that have been down-right horrible for extended periods, Knicks aside, so it’s not as if my love component has been inactive. For the purpose of getting a point across, I am going to reveal the teams that I root for in professional and college sports. I would not say I am a die-hard fan of any team, I think too rationally to ever let myself get caught up in the successes and failures of people I don’t know and of contests I have no control over. A point is coming with all of this, so just hold on. Here is my list:
Here is my point: all of the above teams have given me reasons to be positive for a long time; games to be excited about, playoffs, championship games, improvement from one year to the next, etc. Having the opportunity to watch an athletic competition and to pull for one side because you honestly and truly want that team to win is vital in order to maintain the proper Love-Hate Ratio (LHR) in your kinetic chain. Since the late ‘80s I have never had to go consecutive sporting seasons without at least one of my teams having some level of success, giving me something to be positive about. It is important to note that I am not talking strictly about winning championships. Take the Yankees for example: they have not won a championship since 2000, but every year they are in the playoffs, they are playing and winning big games and that keeps the love flowing. Not love for the team, just love, positive feelings, a reason to smile and feel upbeat. Almost every team on my list has given me reasons to be upbeat, again Knicks aside. The problem for me with college basketball is that there is no team that I really pull for so by default I root for teams to lose, and that makes my College Basketball LHR way out of whack. I honestly believe it is why my NCAA Tournament brackets have gotten worse each year. I am too busy hating.
I bring this up because across this country tonight, the vast majority of people will not be rooting for the team they love, they will be rooting for the team or the player that they hate. Ohio St. and Florida fans aside, both these universities, and Joakim Noah, cause an uprising of hate and disdain in most everyone else. Ohio St. cheats, they lie and they steal. What separates them from the others that cheat is their arrogant and pathetic alums that are somehow proud of the way their athletic programs are run, but when a guy like Maurice Clarrett falls victim to the Machine of Corruption that the Buckeyes are, that fan base turns on him and mocks him. Ohio St. has blood on its hands, but the fans of the Suckeyes are so thirsty and pathetic for fake glory they whore themselves out for a win, any win at all.
Florida on the other hand is hated because they are the defending champs in football and basketball, and they are slightly obnoxious. Well, Noah is REALLY obnoxious and the rest of the team is normal. There will be a fair number of people just rooting against Noah tonight, I am not one of them. I will not be rooting for anyone, but rather my hate will flow in abundance against the Ohio St Buckeyes yet again.
In January I took the Gator football team because the line was too high and I didn’t think Ohio St. was good enough to cover a line that big. Tonight I lay my money on the Gators once again, because they are, by far, the better team.
Just two weeks ago the snow was falling and March Madness had everyone excited that their bracket had no blemishes. Then the first game tipped off and all hell broke loose. All 1s and 2s in the Final Four this year but still full of many surprises. This year’s tournament seemed to lack something in my estimation. Not sure if it was the lack of huge upset, or perhaps it was that buzzer-beaters were at a minimum. One thing that always seems to hold true highly ranked team’s near-elimination experiences being some sort of sign of them not looking back. Both Ohio St and Georgetown fit that criteria, and both won those games thanks to controversial no-calls. Both of tonight’s matchups also feature rematches games played in last year’s tournament. G-town handled the Buckeyes in the second round while Florida hammered UCLA in the championship game. Here is The Dean’s take on tonight’s games:
We have big-man versus big-man, Oden versus Hibbert, and great guards squaring off. The officiating is going to have some bearing on this outcome in terms of how much banging they allow inside. I am not sure Hibbert can match Oden’s strength, but should the game turn into a slugfest anything the Hoyas lose on the inside they gain with their big, strong, athletic guards. Overall I believe the Hoyas have put together more impressive wins against better teams all season long and the fact that they are favored today tells me that the smart money is on Georgetown. I will gladly give the point and take G-town to advance to the Championship game.
I am surprised that the line is as low as it is in the UCLA-Florida game. I read an article on ESPN.com comparing this game to the 1992 Duke-UNLV rematch from 1991’s championship game where UNLV crushed Duke. The difference tonight is that Florida returns all their starters and even more importantly, Florida isn’t UNLV. Only having to give 3 points to a team from the Pac-10 is almost enough to make me wager huge. Everyone is wondering about distractions for the Gators with Kentucky’s classless move on announcing they are going to try and steal Coach Donovan from UF. That won’t be a distraction, except to those bettors that think it gives the Bruins some advantage. Florida is too good in all facets of the game, and won’t lose tonight. Even a tight game will be won by more than 3. I am taking the Gators and giving the points.
An 0-2 day yesterday has me a little down this AM, but not so much. I am admittedly weak on basketball, not from a lack of knowledge but from fear. Basketball, especially college and especially more the NCAA tournament makes scares me. As those of you that are in tune to how your own mind works, you will undoubtedly know that when you enter in to something with reservation and fear, the outcome is never as good as when the same situation is entered into with a clear mind and confidence. Many gamblers enter all their wagers with fear and uncertainty and their outcome never meets their desires. Those of us that have been able to temper the negative qualities with self-control on the amount wagered are able to maintain peace of mind and a somewhat level head. Those of you that are not able to do so, and you know who you are, force yourself into the roller-coaster of elation and desperation. That roller coaster is very unattractive to others, and more importantly is not good for your person or your purse.
My Memphis pick causes me no concern, as betting on Ohio St. is like investing in oil stocks. If it doesn’t bother you, then go ahead, but for this guy I don’t like having my money behind those that are corrupt and dirty. The UCLA/Kansas game however has me upset. Upset with myself. The reason for my self-loathing this morning is that I made the choice of Kansas out of ignorance, and I allowed my bias against PAC-10 schools to cloud my judgment. Had I kept a clear mind and fallen back on the very simple guideline of Experience when picking games, I would’ve taken the Bruins. UCLA has more players that have been playing for 2+ years, they have had more success in the tournament in recent years and the Big 12 is not any better than the PAC-10. As mentioned previously, and above, I am a bit ignorant on the college basketball landscape if for no other reason than I really can’t devote my time, attention and energy to games the entire season. I honestly don’t believe one does need to follow the basketball season the same way one must follow a football season, but still, I am closer to ignorant than I am to wise in that arena. When ignorance is present, bias will ultimately rule the day and that is what happened yesterday.
The point I want to emphasize is, establish the guidelines that are important to you and stick with them. Remove bias and emotion when deciding, always fall back on the general principles you find important. Had I followed my own advice I would have emerged from yesterday 1-1 instead of 0-2.
Enough of the historical analysis ,on to the next play:
I am not calling for an upset here, I just think the Ducks will keep this close. Florida hasn’t been covering lines all year, going 14-15-1 ATS on the season. Oregon meanwhile is shooting the ball well and there is nothing to indicate that will stop today. Oregon has covered 8 of their last 9 and Florida seems perfectly content with just doing what it takes to win games. That may be good enough for the Gators to advance, but it won’t be good enough to meet the expectations placed on the defending champs by the oddsmakers.
This is the one quadrant of the bracket that I have right in my pool. That being said, I have to fall back on my original analysis. What also makes that easy to do is the stupidity exhibited by Roy Hibbert against Vanderbilt. If the 7′2″ dude could exhibit the same smarts on the court that got him into Georgetown (he is a 1200+ SAT guy right?) I may like the Hoyas here. North Carolina has too many weapons and has shown the ability to beat a variety of teams. Both the Heels and the Hoyas did well ATS this year, going 21-13 and 20-9-2 respectively. This is the first time all year that G-town is a dog. UNC is better and will prevail, the 3.5 shouldn’t be difficult to cover either.
Went 1-3 last night and was two points away from being 3-1, such is the life of basketball wagering. I am a bit uncomfortable in the basketball wagering world, due to the huge impact of garbage points. Take the Florida/Butler game last night. For those of us that took Florida, we had no right t be in the running for a win as the game wound down. The Gators were not 10 points better than Butler, yet there we stood on the verge of stealing one all based on whether or not the losing team backs off when the game is obviously decided, or keeps fouling in desperation. Its all part of the game, but to me it feels like a part that is so out of any sort of analytical control that it makes me uncomfortable.
I really enjoy seeing certain teams lose. USC is one of them. Nice choke job last night by the Trojans. It rivals the choke job that Tennessee performed the night before. Ever since Bruce Pearl painted himself for a Vols women’s game, I have felt disdain for him, which upsets me. I always liked his enthusiasm, and thought he did a great job at UW-Milwaukee and also at Tennessee. But Bruce, have some self-respect and put your damn shirt on.
After tonight’s games there will be two of the Final Four decided. Here is my take on the games.
Ohio St is another team I love to see lose. If you think my tune is suddenly going to change, you are dead wrong. I will be rooting, yes rooting, for Memphis today. Aside from wanting to see the Suckeyes go down, the Tigers have found there way into my heart. They play an exciting style of ball and play with a ton of heart. Let’s see if OSU’s guards can keep up with the Tigers’ speed.
And a quick not to John Calipari, please don’t leave Memphis. Kentucky is played out and those hillbillies don’t deserve to have a coach of your caliber. Let those racist hicks wallow in their own filth.
I just don’t see UCLA being able to play with Kansas. Granted the Bruins have been proving me wrong all along, but so has Kansas. This game has me undecided but I am going to lay down on the Jayhawks. Their size and athleticism make the difference for me.
How does that cheesy saying go, “When you lose, don’t lose the lesson” or something like that? The lesson I am taking from last night’s two losses are summed up by two performances. Two weeks ago Aaron Gray messed the bed against Georgetown and scored only 6 points. Personally I put too much stock in that kid, a 7′0″ Senior Center that again did nothing last night in a big game. In the Texas A&M loss, Senior leader and prolific scorer AC Law IV missed a layup late in the game that would’ve put A&M up 3 and managed only 13 points. I still believe that Senior leadership is a key ingredient to Tournament success, but when a team’s best player is a Senior that spells trouble. The reason being, if the kid is a true superstar he wouldn’t be in college for four years.
There were two victories last night, and both were great games. Southern Illinois did what it needed to and had their chances, they were an easy cover. Tennessee meanwhile is going to have a lot of sleepless nights before they get over last night’s loss to Ohio St. Regardless, it was a cover and kept me at 2-2 for the evening, with 4 more games tonight. Let’s take a look at them:
Butler has some nice wins this year, Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Purdue and Maryland. But those teams are nowhere near the caliber of Florida. George Mason had some nice wins last year too; remember what happened to them when they met Florida? Florida’s experience and poise are too much to go against so I am laying it down on Florida this evening. Remember, poise counts!
Vanderbilt’s claim to fame this year is a win over Florida. That was certainly a great accomplishment, but let’s not let that cloud our judgment. Only twice this year have the Commodores won more than two games in a row. And since January they have been on a neat little streak of winning two and then losing one. Let’s also go back to the first game of the year and Georgetown’s 16 point victory of Vanderbilt. Granted it was a long time ago, but that is some history that shouldn’t be ignored. With that said, the line is higher than I anticipated and that gives me some additional comfort in giving the points and taking the Hoyas.
This game has me a bit perplexed. Oregon started the year hot, cooled in the middle and has seemed to get hot again. UNLV meanwhile began an impressive run on their conference tournament and through the first two games of the Big Dance. UNLV is a senior dominated team but the low spread has me feeling like I am walking into a trap. Well, if I am I am not going to hesitate, I am running right through it and taking the points and the Running Rebels
USC was very impressive against Texas, but they aren’t playing a one man show tonight. The Trojans got demolished in the PAC-10 championship game but people are still raving about their win over Texas. Get over it, it wasn’t all it seemed. The Heels are legit and The Dean likes them to cover this line tonight.
It is important in life to always have something out in front of you that you are excited about. It makes the days go by in a flash and the spirit always remains high. There was no need to search for that dangling carrot this week as all you had to do was get to Thursday. Well, Thursday is here and its time to get focused on the games at hand. Below is a breakdown of tonight’s games and The Dean’s pick.
Kansas runs the floor as well as anybody which is one reason for their near 50% FG percentage. We will see of So. Illinois can find a way to limit the easy buckets and keep this game close. KU does not have a Senior on their roster, while the Salukis main players are primarily Seniors and Juniors. I am not sure that is enough for the Salukis to win this game, but I believe it will be enough to keep them in the game all night and 8.5 points is too many for the inexperienced Jayhawks to cover.
Its unfortunate for Memphis that the past week has gone down this path. The injury to Douglas-Roberts is going to cripple the Tigers and it couldn’t come at a worse time. The Aggies are an experienced team that are playing in their own backyard. On top of that, Texas A&M does just about everything better than Memphis except cause turnovers. All other statistical information points in the Aggies favor. The shoot 10% better from the foul line, they shoot 7% better from behind the arc and their FG% is 4 points higher than Memphis’. The one item in Memphis favor is their ability to cause turnovers, but it will not be enough this evening.
A very intriguing matchup as the Panthers go against their old coach. UCLA’s style does not serve as an advantage tonight and their inability to handle physical teams will do them in. Statistically neither team has a big advantage over the others. Pitt has three things working in their favor: 1) UCLA has no answer for Aaron Gray, 2) Pitt has more experience and 3) UCLA’s loss to West Virginia shows Pitt everything they need in terms of game planning. I fully expect this game to be close for the majority and then for Pitt to pull away and win by double-digits.
There is no way I am laying money on the Buckeyes. Ohio St. is on my short list of most despised athletic programs and I have bad mouthed them since January and will continue to do so. They are bandits in all things and their alums are hypocritical idiots. Were is the outrage at the Buckeyes dismal graduation rate? What would be fair is for the Big 10 to put Ohio St. on notice that if they don’t clean up their act they will be out of the conference. From their stupid nut mascot to Jim Tressler’s pedophile sweater vests to Thad Matta chewing gum off the floor, I loathe that phony university and will never support them. That being said, Tennessee does have a chance tonight and OSU is the most likely #1 seed to fall. Lets hope they do, and that they never get back up.
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