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St. Dougie hit the road on Wednesday night to take in a Patriot League battle between the Bucknell Bison and Lehigh Engineers Mountain Hawks.
Nothing like a little January road trip to shake the winter doldrums loose. The plan was to take in a little mid-major D-I hoops action. Last night Saint Dougie set sail for Bethlehem, PA for a battle of Patriot League contenders and their two fringe NBA prospects, Bucknell and junior big man Mike Muscala and Lehigh and junior guard CJ McCollum, the past two league champions and the past two Patriot League players of the year facing off.
First off, the saint had no idea what a chill downtown area that Bethlehem has. Hit the Bethlehem Brew Works before the game and it was a good place for chillin’ and a grub. Downtown Bethlehem has some nice shops, restaurants and bars, etc. and it’s really clean. If going to Lehigh again (Patriot League tourney game maybe?), I would hit the joint again for sure. Tried a blueberry wheat beer and a pumpkin beer. Despite not being a big beer guy (Saints like the hard booze.), I felt compelled to try some since I was there.
Second off, the Lehigh crowd gets a big ol’ gas face. Only 1,900 on hand and they were dead as hell for what was a big game for both teams. No chants, no cheers, not much of anything really – though they did have a nice little pep band. Atmosphere was not at all what I had expected – in that regard, the road trip was a slight letdown. Should have known when we saw a Lehigh cheerleader and her crew at the brewery before the game (liked seeing that and some other Lehigh fans and figured crowd was getting ready for game) and asked her if a lot of students were going and were they hyped and she replied, “Honestly, no. Maybe tonight it will be different because it’s a big game, but the students here don’t get into the games very much if they even go at all.” I was like, “Awwww nawww!”
Was excited to see a Mid-Penn Conference boy and Steel High Rolla in Bucknell’s Ryan Hil. Hill played 25 minutes, contributing solid D – even matching up with McCollum on occasion and did well. He also had 6 boards, 5 assists and only 1 turnover. Hill did however pass up some open outside looks from just inside 3 point arc that I would have liked to see him take.
Not entirely sure that the McCollum from Lehigh is playing in the NBA in my humble opinion. He’s barely 6-2/6-3 and slight of frame – though only a junior. You can see the talent is there for sure but Bryan Cohen from Bucknell did a great job on him and made everything tough and they rotated so many double teams at him, he didn’t have room to breathe. Shot 5-15 and had 3 turnovers – though he did have 9 assists – and was very content in trying to help all of his teammates. For him to play in the NBA, I’d be surprised. No matter what some scouts say.
Muscala for the Bison… you can see why the scouts like him. He’s a legit 6-10 and he has range out to the college 3 line – hit 2 of ‘em – finished with 20 and 12 boards, though he didn’t shoot well (7 for 18). They utilize him a little strangely at times and I think he should get it on the block on every play rather out at the high post as he did on many occasions. That being said, as a junior, with putting on more weight/strength (even though he isn’t bad now), I can see him definitely getting an NBA look because he is so skilled for a dude that size. Plus, he is patient and doesn’t force anything at all. Could I see him being an NBA regular? No. But can he sneak on a roster. Perhaps.
The Bison had a little more poise down the stretch and pulled out a 68-61 win, getting a big leg up in the Patriot now. A major leg up on locking up that home court for the Patriot League tourney. Definitely like how the Patriot rewards the regular season champ/higher seeded teams with home games throughout the tourney. Other mid-major conferences should all do that instead of neutral site ish for the whole tourney. Since only the tourney title winner of mid-major conferences generally make the dance, they shouldn’t discount the regular season achievements of a team by throwing the tourney at a neutral site. Let the teams get some reward for their regular season accomplishments.
If the Bison do dance, I believe they have a shot at a win in it. Muscala is a legit big man against anyone in the nation. Ryan Ayers (Randy’s kid, the old Sixer coach) can play and they are so patient and really play together well and can shoot the 3.
That’s a wrap.
I will keep this short and sweet. Main reason its short and sweet is that I don’t have a lot to say on this game. All the analysis in the world doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. Flip a coin, cheer for the team you want to win, its all the same. I do expect a close game. If either team blows the other out, that will be the shocker. Here is what I am going with. Two teams that play hard, two teams that are hot, give me the team with the best player on the court. That my friends is Kemba Walker.
I will give the 3 points and take UConn for 250.
I had a few rules to this year’s bracket completion. First was to not spend more than 5 seconds on a game. See it, decide, on to the next one. If I couldn’t decide in those 5 seconds I skipped it and went on to the next one. I worked counterclockwise, going around and applying the same rules until the bracket was complete.
This will be the only bracket I complete.
Click Here to See The Dean’s Picks!
In Plaxico Burress’ interview with Jeremy Schapp the other day, the disgraced NFL wide-receiver replied to Schapp’s question of, “Why didn’t you have the gun in the holster?”, with the beautifully simplistic and succinctly accurate reply of, “Bad judgment”. Burress should get 3-4 months knocked of his sentence for coming to realize that.
Yesterday I was reminded of Bad Judgment, with Rick Pitino, head coach at the University of Louisville, married father of 5. Coach Pitino went and banged Karen Cunagin Sypher, in a restaurant, with his assistant coach as the lookout, 6 years ago. Who is she? Apparently she is someone that is really into Louisville basketball. This brings to question Pitino decision making on 3 accounts.
1. As the Head Coach of a major basketball program, Pitino is someone that needs to show parents that their kids should play basketball for him, that sponsors should give him money, and that alumni should continue to give buckets of money to him and his team. Why is he banging broads in public? To quote Plaxico Burress, “Bad Judgment”. If you were the father of a kid that was being recruited by Pitino, are you letting Coach into your house? You might think twice, because when you go to refresh everyone’s lemonade glass, Coach is going to be basketballs deep into your wife.
2. Not inviting his assistant coach to get a piece from the buffet is flat out wrong. To top it off, he makes the assistant coach stand lookout?!?! Pitino implicates the assistant coach by making him stand there, and then doesn’t even let him get in on the action. That is no way to keep unity on your coaching staff. Bad Judgment.
3. The chick ends up being loony. Go figure! We all know so many ‘sane’ girls that have nail-banging sessions on a restaurant table. I am not complaining, I am just saying. Watch Fatal Attraction, its a documentary on that type of ‘lady’. Anyway, Cyphers tries to get money from Pitino, blah blah blah, she gets arrested for extortion and lying to the police. It sure seems like her arrest is very much deserved. However, and according to Syphers, during the time she was attempting to extort money, Pitino’s words to her were along the lines of “your boy’s will end up in cement”, “you will end up in cement”, “your whole family will be in cement”. Now, I don’t know what to think. Is Syphers just pulling out blatant Italian mob stereo-types, or is Pitino a stereo-typical Italian mobster? Personally, I believe that Pitino would say something like that. I also don’t believe he would actually do, or have done for him, any of those methods of silencing people. But, I do know that he likes to scream and yell, and he is a little man. Pitino reacted angrily to the release of the Syphers police interview where she makes these claims. In a hastily called press conference Pitino angrily stated that its all a lie, a fabrication. He also brought up Sen. Edward Kennedy’s death and scolded the sportswriters for not covering the death of Kennedy. Acting like an idiot at the press conference you call to defend yourself against accusations from a crazy person that has zero credibility is Bad Judgment.
All tournament long the strength of a team’s schedule and the strength/makeup of their respective conferences have been excellent differentiators in games between seemingly equal teams, or games that you may have been torn over. Yesterday that theme held true.
Today’s most exciting matchup is Texas vs. Memphis and the most intriguing is Davidson vs. Kansas. Lets start with the exciting and end with the intriguing.
In comparing Texas and Memphis, Texas has proven they can beat the powerhouse teams, while Memphis has not even had the opportunity to prove that. Memphis meanwhile has some quality wins, but none against anyone that is in the class of UT’s good wins. Here is a snapshot of each team’s quality wins, which I am determining as regular season opponents that made the tournament or a tournament win that should be considered a quality win. *Note: I am not including Austin Peay on either team’s slate even thought Memphis beat them in the regular season and Texas beat them in the First Round of the tournament.
Texas
Memphis
Now, Texas does have some losses that must be considered. The theme is that Texas seems to struggle on the road, note that two of their losses were redeemed when they played those teams at home. And not to make excuses for the Longhorns, please keep in mind that I loathe the state of Texas, but they shot poorly against Wisconsin and lost by 1. The losses of concern are:
The argument can certainly be made that neither losing to Wisconsin or Michigan St. is a bad loss but we must consider all losses. This is much easier to do with Memphis, since their lone loss is to Tennessee, a common opponent. The other common opponent is Michigan St. which Memphis beat and to whom Texas lost.
All that being said, an argument can be made for either team. I am siding with Texas since I believe that a close game does not benefit Memphis as their foul shooting will be front and center. In addition, I am being swayed by Texas’ strength of schedule and wins over Kansas and UCLA. I can certainly envision Memphis winning this game, but with this game being as close as it is, and with there being good value with Texas (+3.5 and +150), I am further emboldened to go ‘Horns. One other side note, for those that like to make decisions based on information that is irrelevant to the game itself, if Memphis and Kansas win then it will be the first time that all #1 seeds have made the Final Four. If you believe that the trend will continue then ask yourself who is more likely to lose, Kansas or Memphis?
Davidson is a feel good story and they have seemingly come out of nowhere. Don’t get lulled into a sense of complacency with this team however. They have won 25 consecutive games and also have played a very strong schedule. Their most notable wins have come in their last two, Georgetown and Wisconsin, and that is why Kansas should win this game.
I do not wish to take anything away from Davidson, but they have beaten flawed teams even if they were also considered good teams. The flaws that existed with Georgetown and Wisconsin do not exist with Kansas. Kansas will run, and run and Davidson will not be able to keep pace no matter how well Stephen Curry shoots the ball. Another sign of concern for would-be Davidson gamblers is the 9.5 line which indicates that Vegas does not see Cinderella having much of a shot. Now, if you are one that believes Davidson has a legit chance of winning the game, then you will drool over the +425 Money Line. I am not one of those people. I am more compelled to take Kansas and give the 9.5 or tkae Kansas with their Money Line of -550 since I feel it is a sure thing. Remember, if you think you have a sure thing in a heavy favorite and are looking for some value, don’t be afraid to wrap up your favorite with another game or two into a 2 or 3 team parlay.
As we get down to the nitty-gritty the opportunity to win some cash becomes a little tricky, or so it may seem. The key to this time of year is to not forget what you already know. This can be difficult to do. Especially with all the talk by the experts and the amateurs that get involved with the NCAA Tournament. We can be too easily swayed away from the principles that we must adhere to if we are going to sustain success. Hopefully, you have been keeping a journal or some sort of record on what you have seen throughout the year and especially within the past few weeks. Your journal is your window into what you were thinking, the things you believe in, and how those prognostications turned out. It is your report card of yourself and it is an extremely useful tool when it comes to making your decisions.
Let’s take a look at the things I referenced in my journal that brought me success last night.
For tonight, get out your journals, go with what you know and stick to it. Something to consider for this evenings two matchups
From a bettor’s perspective, let me first say that unless the line is under 3 points, I am scared to death of betting the point spread. If you like the favorite it is too easy for cheap baskets to be scored at the end of the game and blow your win. Conversely, if you like the dog and the point-spread is 3 or under the value lies in taking them to win the game outright and play the Money Line. The only time I will play a favorite with the point-spread is if I believe the favorite will win going away. Take Kansas for example last night. They were 12 point favorites over Villanova and at the end they did cover the spread. However, KU was leading the entire game by 18-20 points and Villanova was never in the game. Then suddenly, with just over a minute to go, Villanova pulls within 12 points. At no point did it feel like Villanova was going to come close to winning the game, but the bet now came down to what amounts to bullshit. Is Villanova going to keep fouling? Will Kansas make their foul shots? Will Villanova hit some desperate 3s? All of this amounts to undue stress and uncertainty in what should’ve been a walk in the park for those betting Kansas. My point here is, if you like the favorite so much and the line is high (how high is high up for argument) than look to the Money Line and a possible parlay to increase your return. All of this adds up to basketball being more of a crap-shoot and why football is the game of kings.
We are through Round 1, and whatever drama was lacking on Day 1 was more than made up for on Day 2. Two #4 seeds have been expelled, and neither are that much of a surprise. Vanderbilt lost to a very good Siena team in a game that was previewed by all the experts to go exactly as it turned out. Siena took it to Vandy from the get-go and showed the nation that just because Siena doesn’t play in a high-powered conference, it doesn’t mean they can’t play with the high-powered teams. UConn was the other #4 seed to fall, and while it was certainly an upset, it was an upset more in name than in reality. Much like Duke, this UConn team is not as good as the teams that have given the Huskies their well deserved reputation. On top of that, UConn did not finish the year strong and then lost their point guard to injury early in yesterday’s game. That being said, hats off to San Diego for salvaging a bit of pride for the West Coast Conference which took some shots for getting 3 teams in the tournament. (The other two were Gonzaga and St. Mary’s . . . both lost).
Going through the conferences, I believed and spoke loudly to all that would listen, about the strength of the Big East. They backed it up by going 7-1 in the First Round with UConn being the lone loser. Villanova was the lone Big East team to ‘upset’ their opponent, being a 12 seed and defeating 5th seeded Clemson. This reinforces what Tmac by the Bay spoke about on the show the other night, where the ACC is a top heavy conference and the Big East is strong throughout. Add Duke’s near loss to Belmont into the mix and you can make the argument that the ACC is a one-team conference this year, that one team being North Carolina. The same can be said for the Pac-10 where USC’s loss the other night leaves the Pac-10 in a position of showing their true colors of being a one-team conference, UCLA.
The Big East will really be able to claim conference supremacy with a good showing today by Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Marquette and West Virginia. Notre Dame and Marquette square off against two good Pac-10 teams, Washington St. and Stanford respectively. While Pitt plays Michigan St. and West Virginia faces Duke. Pitt is the only Big East team going today that is the higher-seeded team. From a betting perspective, this presents us bettors with tremendous value. I like both Notre Dame and West Virginia to win their games. Notre Dame is +2.5 and +125 and West Virginia is +4 and +160. I am a parlay freak, so expect me to double those two team together.
Marquette meanwhile will have their hands full with Stanford in a game that presents opposing styles of play and matchup problems for both. Marquette is +3 and +135. I am undecided on this game from a betting perspective, but all my rooting interests are behind the team from Milwaukee. Pitt finds themselves -2 and -140, not a bad bet but with Michigan State’s experience and senior leadership, certainly not a lock for the Panthers.
Speaking of the Big 10, Indiana showed their true colors last night in losing by 14 to Arkansas. Wisconsin, Michigan St. and Purdue remain from the Big 10. Wisconsin faces Kansas St. in a game of two very different teams. KSU is led by a superstar Freshman while the Badgers are the epitome of a team. Wisconsin can lull you to sleep and may not blow anyone away, but they are good and should prevail today. Purdue on the other hand beat a Baylor team in the first round that barely got in the tournament and today faces Xavier, a team that can play Purdue’s physical style and also run much better than the Boilermakers. Expect the Musketeers to win this game.
The other games not touched on are, Kansas vs. UNLV, and UCLA vs. Texas A&M. Neither top seeded team should have much trouble.
With college basketball now over I like to split my focus between the NBA and Major League Baseball. I don’t know that last time I watched a regular season NBA game from start to finish. I also am not sure it is necessary to watch an entire game, but it is vital for me to being paying more attention to team’s strengths and weaknesses. As I have discussed before, our personal insights into matchups, both at the team and individual level, are an important piece to the equation. Without it, we are left to guess, or worse yet we default to old habits and biases, which will never do us any good.
I will also be publishing a multiple part post on Progressive Betting, which is how I like to wager on baseball. In a nutshell, with Progressive Betting I wager on a team for a period of time, i.e. a series, a month, or open ended. I wager on that team every time they play and my wager is always in an amount that will progress me forward a number of units I pre-determine going into the selected time-period. I will discuss and give examples of how this system has brought me success ever since I began implementing it.
In closing, a few quick thoughts on Florida’s win over Ohio St the other night. For the first time in the tournament Greg Oden wasn’t in foul trouble, and that meant trouble for the Buckeyes. I am as guilty as the next for not giving the Ohio St. guards their due. They are a solid group and were the reason for the Buckeyes success. Florida’s game plan was brilliant in that it recognized the true strength of Ohio St, which was not the man-child in the middle but rather their guards. The Gators let Oden rack up points, but never let his teammates find their groove. Great job by Billy Donovan, please don’t go to Kentucky.
I have discovered that when it comes to my rooting interests, in games where my team isn’t playing, that I am motivated much more by wanting a team to lose than I am wanting a team to win. Fortunately for me I am not a fan of any teams that have been down-right horrible for extended periods, Knicks aside, so it’s not as if my love component has been inactive. For the purpose of getting a point across, I am going to reveal the teams that I root for in professional and college sports. I would not say I am a die-hard fan of any team, I think too rationally to ever let myself get caught up in the successes and failures of people I don’t know and of contests I have no control over. A point is coming with all of this, so just hold on. Here is my list:
Here is my point: all of the above teams have given me reasons to be positive for a long time; games to be excited about, playoffs, championship games, improvement from one year to the next, etc. Having the opportunity to watch an athletic competition and to pull for one side because you honestly and truly want that team to win is vital in order to maintain the proper Love-Hate Ratio (LHR) in your kinetic chain. Since the late ‘80s I have never had to go consecutive sporting seasons without at least one of my teams having some level of success, giving me something to be positive about. It is important to note that I am not talking strictly about winning championships. Take the Yankees for example: they have not won a championship since 2000, but every year they are in the playoffs, they are playing and winning big games and that keeps the love flowing. Not love for the team, just love, positive feelings, a reason to smile and feel upbeat. Almost every team on my list has given me reasons to be upbeat, again Knicks aside. The problem for me with college basketball is that there is no team that I really pull for so by default I root for teams to lose, and that makes my College Basketball LHR way out of whack. I honestly believe it is why my NCAA Tournament brackets have gotten worse each year. I am too busy hating.
I bring this up because across this country tonight, the vast majority of people will not be rooting for the team they love, they will be rooting for the team or the player that they hate. Ohio St. and Florida fans aside, both these universities, and Joakim Noah, cause an uprising of hate and disdain in most everyone else. Ohio St. cheats, they lie and they steal. What separates them from the others that cheat is their arrogant and pathetic alums that are somehow proud of the way their athletic programs are run, but when a guy like Maurice Clarrett falls victim to the Machine of Corruption that the Buckeyes are, that fan base turns on him and mocks him. Ohio St. has blood on its hands, but the fans of the Suckeyes are so thirsty and pathetic for fake glory they whore themselves out for a win, any win at all.
Florida on the other hand is hated because they are the defending champs in football and basketball, and they are slightly obnoxious. Well, Noah is REALLY obnoxious and the rest of the team is normal. There will be a fair number of people just rooting against Noah tonight, I am not one of them. I will not be rooting for anyone, but rather my hate will flow in abundance against the Ohio St Buckeyes yet again.
In January I took the Gator football team because the line was too high and I didn’t think Ohio St. was good enough to cover a line that big. Tonight I lay my money on the Gators once again, because they are, by far, the better team.
Just two weeks ago the snow was falling and March Madness had everyone excited that their bracket had no blemishes. Then the first game tipped off and all hell broke loose. All 1s and 2s in the Final Four this year but still full of many surprises. This year’s tournament seemed to lack something in my estimation. Not sure if it was the lack of huge upset, or perhaps it was that buzzer-beaters were at a minimum. One thing that always seems to hold true highly ranked team’s near-elimination experiences being some sort of sign of them not looking back. Both Ohio St and Georgetown fit that criteria, and both won those games thanks to controversial no-calls. Both of tonight’s matchups also feature rematches games played in last year’s tournament. G-town handled the Buckeyes in the second round while Florida hammered UCLA in the championship game. Here is The Dean’s take on tonight’s games:
We have big-man versus big-man, Oden versus Hibbert, and great guards squaring off. The officiating is going to have some bearing on this outcome in terms of how much banging they allow inside. I am not sure Hibbert can match Oden’s strength, but should the game turn into a slugfest anything the Hoyas lose on the inside they gain with their big, strong, athletic guards. Overall I believe the Hoyas have put together more impressive wins against better teams all season long and the fact that they are favored today tells me that the smart money is on Georgetown. I will gladly give the point and take G-town to advance to the Championship game.
I am surprised that the line is as low as it is in the UCLA-Florida game. I read an article on ESPN.com comparing this game to the 1992 Duke-UNLV rematch from 1991′s championship game where UNLV crushed Duke. The difference tonight is that Florida returns all their starters and even more importantly, Florida isn’t UNLV. Only having to give 3 points to a team from the Pac-10 is almost enough to make me wager huge. Everyone is wondering about distractions for the Gators with Kentucky’s classless move on announcing they are going to try and steal Coach Donovan from UF. That won’t be a distraction, except to those bettors that think it gives the Bruins some advantage. Florida is too good in all facets of the game, and won’t lose tonight. Even a tight game will be won by more than 3. I am taking the Gators and giving the points.
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