The 2009 NBA Finals are exhibiting the essence of basketball which is about matchups, which are about individuals. However, it is the combination of those individuals and how the work in unison that ultimately determines who is the best team.

With that in mind, the following individuals are the ones that have left a mark on my psyche through the first two games.

Dwight Howard
Everyone, myself included, questioned why Howard wasn’t given more of the spotlight. His performance so far in the Finals has been less than impressive. True he is getting his rebounds, and true he had a much better second game. However, last night when he received the ball in the post with his back to the basket in the 3rd and 4th quarters he either had the ball stripped, threw a bad pass, or forced a shot. I am very unimpressed and disappointed with Howard so far.

Jameer Nelson
People get excited when a very good player returns from injury. Why wouldn’t they? A player that was instrumental to the Magic’s success this year was gonna be back in uniform, a cause for celebration, no? No! The flow that the Magic developed over the course of these playoffs was a fine balance of movement, anticipation, and comfort in their surroundings. To introduce a new element into the middle of that is to play scientist and hope that the chemicals don’t blow up. I am not pinning the first two losses on Nelson, not at all. I think that getting Nelson acclimated to full speed is a great idea, and if Orlando would have won last night (which they should have) they would be sitting pretty headed home.

Rafer Alston
Alston is a by-product of Nelson. Alston seems to be the one most affected by Nelson’s return to the lineup.

Derek Fisher
It seems that when Fisher touches the ball late in a game good things are going to happen for his team.

Pau Gasol
The White Willie McGee. Dude is f’n ugly.

JJ Redick
Hit a big shot, missed a big shot, and had a turnover on a good pass that just took him too long to make. Redick got plenty of playing time and did ok, but had missed a chance to raise his own stock.

Hedo Turkoglu
A close runner-up to the ugliest dude on the court. Turkoglu’s value to this Magic team can not be understated. I would have liked to have seen that pass to Courtney Lee be slightly better, but it certainly wasn’t a bad pass.

Stan Van Gundy
I am a big fan of both Van Gundy’s and Stan is showing that he is a better coach than Phil Jackson. I don’t know if there is a stat on points scored off of inbound plays, but I am willing to bet that Van Gundy’s teams are at the top.

The list does not have Kobe Bryant because Kobe has not left a mark on my psyche. He is doing what he does. I will say that Kobe I don’t expect Kobe to have his shots blocked when shooting for the win . . . The Magic covered the 6.5 points last night and came within a layup of winning when they were +260 . . . The Magic are -4 in Game 3 and -200, while the Lakers are +165 . . . The Dean likes the Magic to cover in Game 3.

In 3 of Orlando’s 4 wins, someone off the bench played more minutes than at least one starter. In the lone game where that did not occur, Mickael Pietrus played 1 min and 50 seconds less than Dwight Howard (Game 3). Only once did Cleveland have a non-starter play more minutes that a starter, also Game 3. Aleksandar Pavlovic played more minutes than Anderson Varejao.

It was always Pietrus who was the non-starter that netted more minutes, so perhaps he should be considered the key to the Magic winning the series. This stat also points out what a lot of LeBron Lovers point to as the reason the Cavs lost. They lament “Poor LeBron can’t do it all himself!!! His teammates let him down, his teammates are only good because the get to play with LeBron!”. Bullshit. I guess his teammates had no part in the Cavs having the best record in the NBA in the regular season. I suppose that his teammates had no part in the Cavs winning their first 8 playoff games this year.

The bottom line is this, once you look past all the hype, and the commercials, and the chalk dust in the air that is clouding everyone’s vision, a few things become very clear:

1. LeBron should have carried his team past the Magic. If LeBron wants the monikers of King and The Chosen One, then this is what he should have done. Is it fair? Probably not, but wtf?! he is The King, isn’t he?
2. The matchup problems caused by the Magic should have been more talked about from the beginning. The Magic bench is better than the Cavs and no one on the Cavs can cover Hedo Turkoglu. He alone was cause for the Magic to win this series.
3. Mike Brown isn’t good enough to be a CYO coach. Coach Brown contributed absolutely nothing to his team in the series with Orlando. No adjustments were made on either the offensive or defensive side of the court that had any positive impact. I will not accept the ‘inferior talent’ argument either. His team had the best record in the NBA this year. The Magic were playing without Jameer Nelson. Mike Brown is not an NBA caliber coach and it showed in this series. His interview at halftime yesterday epitomized his lack of ability as a coach. When asked what can he do to stop Dwight Howard, he responds that Howard is taking hops every time he gets the ball in the post. Thanks for that Coach, but what is the audience going to do about that? Just wanted to get it out there so you have an excuse for when your team ultimately loses?

The Cavs didn’t deserve to win any games in this series. The get a miracle shot to win Game 2, and because of that they get a Game 5 at home, otherwise they would have been done in 4. And do the Cavs really get a pat on the back for winning Game 5 at home, down 3-1?! Really?! The team with the best record in the NBA gets accolades for not quitting in a Game 5 at home, down 3-1?! Really?!

When push came to shove, neither the Cavs nor LeBron showed up. Last night was THE Game of Forever for Cleveland and LeBron goes 8 of 20 from the field, missed 4 foul shots, grabbed 1 offensive rebound, had 3 turnovers, and scored a grand total of 0, yes ZERO, points in the 2nd Quarter. Way to go King, really impressive how you carried the peasants all the way to a Game 6 loss.

I am going to begin with the Eastern Conference in hopes that you read the entire article. Saving the West for last truly is saving the best for last. What follows is a quick summary of each playoff team and playoff contender in the order that they currently sit after last night’s games. Here goes.

Eastern Conference

Boston Celtics: By far the most improved team from last year, but did you expect anything less from a team that added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett? Keep in mind that the most playoff experienced Celtic is PJ Brown, which is why they Celtics best chance of getting to the Conference Championship is to drop to #2 so as to avoid the Cavaliers in the second round. I rank the Celtics 3rd in the Conference behind Detroit and Cleveland.

Detroit Pistons: The most experienced team in the East and this year the most under-the-radar team in the East. They are in the best position to have an ‘easy’ run to the Finals. The Wizards, 76ers, Nets or Hawks are their likely First Round matchup, with the Magic, Raptors or one of the previously mentioned teams waiting for them in the 2nd Round. I expect the Pistons to be in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Orlando Magic: Stan Van Gundy, my 2nd favorite Van Gundy and one of my favorite coaches, has done a great job with the Magic and Dwight Howard is a stud. The Magic can be dangerous but I see them as very beatable. The Magic are the most likely first-round upset victim.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The team nobody wants to face. It doesn’t matter what this team’s seed ends up being. The additions they made in recent weeks have strengthened an already very good team, and let’s not forget that unlike the Celtics, this team has won in the playoffs before. I expect the Cavaliers to face the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Toronto Raptors: Now we starts getting into teams that really have no chance. Biggest question for the Raptors is Chris Bosh’s health. If he remains out, the Raptors could fall out of the playoffs.

Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas may be back soon will help, and they are most likely to draw the Magic in Round 1. That being said, that is all the Wizards have to root for and let’s all pray that they stay away from the two-colored uniforms.

Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are on a great run, and they work their tails off all game long. Problem is, they just don’t match-up with any of their possible first round opponents. Playing the Pistons in Round 1 will at least allow Rip Hamilton to play near his hometown of Coatesville, PA.

New Jersey Nets: The current #8 seed which I think will drop out of the playoffs. The Nets did a good thing by getting rid of Jason Kidd. Even with him they were looking at a first-round exit.

Atlanta Hawks: I find it somewhat exciting that the Hawks are in the playoff hunt. Not sure why to be honest. Perhaps it is flashback to the old days of Dominique Wilkins and Tree Rollins. Getting Mike Bibby was nice to see, nice because it shows that the Hawks may actually care a little.

The Rest of the Pack: Technically, the Pacers, Bulls and Bucks are still in the hunt but if you think I am going to write about those teams, you are sorely mistaken. Should they start to have more than a mathematical chance I will give them their props.

Western Conference

Only 5 games separate #1 from #8 and I am not sure if the Spurs or Lakers would be #1 if the season ended right now, but the following is the snapshot of the Western Conference playoffs as it stands right now. There are exciting matchups every where you look!

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs just keep on keepin’ on. What can be said about them, other than they keep playing team basketball and matchup with every other team out there. The Spurs are my pick to win it all.

Los Angeles Lakers: Getting Gasol was the best move out of all the Western Conference trades. It proves that Kobe was wrong before when he thought he could win it all himself, and it also makes this Laker team great. People are excited about Andrew Bynum’s return, but I think they may be better off without him. Let this current group continue to gel.

New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets are the most likely team to be upset. They are having one heck of a year, but their lack of experience will do them in once the playoffs begin.

Utah Jazz: A very good team that plays very hard every possession. It is so nice to see this team do well and not have to see that jack-ass Karl Malone.

Houston Rockets: The Rockets have played great since Yao Ming got hurt, but the true tests are coming up this week. They have won 15 in a row which is very impressive, but I can’t see this team doing much more than getting to the second-round. That being said, getting to the secon-round should keep McGrady from crying at a press conference.

Phoenix Suns: They get Shaq and they go on a bad run. Here’s the deal. Once the playoffs start, this team with the addition of Shaq presents a ton of match-up problems for most teams. Losing Shawn Marion is going to take some getting used to, but expect the Suns to make a run in the playoffs, depending on when they have to face the Lakers or Spurs.

Dallas Mavericks: I understand the Mavericks desire to add Jason Kidd. But since he has joined them they are 4-4 and he missed a foul shot in the last seconds of the game against the Lakers that could’ve extended it to another OT. The only way the Mavericks are going to get better is for Dirk Nowitski to grow a set of nuts. In crunch time, he is more likely to take a fall-away jumper than go to the basket. Until that changes, nothing with this team will change.

Golden State Warriors: The Warriors only hope is to get the Mavericks in the first-round again.

Denver Nuggets: They are in it, but the Nuggets lack of an inside presence will haunt them. They can score, but they can’t defend. I believe they only get in the playoffs if a team above them gets cold and drops out.

The Rest of the Pack: The Trail Blazers have a shot, but their best basketball is behind them. They remain a nice story, having a great turn-around year, and they do deserve mention in this article, but don’t expect to see them in the playoffs.

Eastern Conference Finals

Detroit over Cleveland in 6 games

Western Conference Finals

San Antonio over Utah in 5 games

With one more game remaining in the first-round, and the first Conference Semi-Final game being played tonight, lets review The Dean’s first round picks and also set the predictions for the Semis. I was right on the money with all the Eastern Conference winners, though I did not have the total games played correct in any of them. In the West, I missed on Dallas and we will see how the Rockets do for me this evening.

Eastern Conference

Chicago over Detroit in 6 games: The only real surprise in the first round as I see it was the Bulls sweep of the Heat, though Chicago’s win shouldn’t have surprised anyone. The Heat are nowhere near the team they were last year, so don’t get fooled and over-value the Bulls. That being said, the Pistons beat an over-matched and relatively poor Orlando Magic team. Perhaps the Pistons were messing with everyone by not blowing the Magic away, but I don’t think so. Chicago is hot, they are young and energetic, the Pistons have no one to deal with Ben Wallace, and most importantly the Pistons have Chris Webber on their team. Webber is the kiss of death and should be the deciding factor for anyone still on the fence with this series.

Cleveland over New Jersey in 5 games: I stated it in my most recent NBA update and I am sticking with it, the Nets will get smoked in the second round. The Cavs were given a free pass but they played a team with more heart than the Nets have and were able to fend the Wizards off at every turn. The Nets have no answer for LeBron and also look for Ilgauskas to have his way in the paint. The Nets have experience, yes, but that will only get them one win in this series.

Western Conference

In the West, the Jazz and Rockets play the only Game 7 of the First-Round and it gives me an opportunity to nail that series should the Rockets win. Golden State is the team everyone is focused on after their impressive beat down of the Mavericks. Dirk is gone and there is no point in picking on the deceased, but let me say this, Dirk is not an MVP and but he is a head case. This Maverick loss rests with him, there are no ifs, ands or buts about it.

Phoenix over San Antonio in 7 games: There is a lot to like about both of these teams and I believe the winner of this series will advance to the NBA Finals. I am laying my money with the Suns for two reasons: Steve Nash and home court advantage.

Houston over Golden State in 7 games or Golden State over Utah in 6 games: Should the Rockets win tonight I don’t expect Jeff Van Gundy to make the same mistake that Avery Johnson did. If the Rockets attempt to get up and down the court with the Warriors they are making a huge mistake. In a half-court game all the advantages are with Houston. I also believe that Golden State is too emotional and not mature enough to win back to back series. Should the Jazz win tonight I take back everything I said about Golden State’s maturity.

There is a very interesting study that was released in the New York Times today that draws the conclusion that race plays a role in how fouls are called in the NBA. The study was done in conjunction with a larger study of race in American society.

The NBA disputes the claims, obviously, and does so with their own stats; stats they won’t fully release. The problem the NBA faces in defending itself is that there is no need for them to defend themselves. The NBA and its officials are not being accused of racism, but rather the study reinforces that race, along with a plethora of other factors, influence the way we as human beings make decisions.

“I would be more surprised if it didn’t exist,” Mr. Ian Ayres of Yale Law School said of an implicit association bias in the N.B.A. “There’s a growing consensus that a large proportion of racialized decisions is not driven by any conscious race discrimination, but that it is often just driven by unconscious, or subconscious, attitudes. When you force people to make snap decisions, they often can’t keep themselves from subconsciously treating blacks different than whites, men different from women.”

Don’t misunderstand the study to say that only white officials are biased against black players, because that isn’t the case. The study which was done by Justin Wolfers, an assistant professor of business and public policy at the Wharton School, and Joseph Price, a Cornell graduate student in economics, found that black officials call fouls on white players more frequently though the tendency is not as strong.

What I find most intriguing about this is that it is another example of how we make decisions. There are so many factors that influence the way we think, and they occur before we ever actually do the ‘thinking’. This point is the basis for the book Blink, which I suggest all of you read and/or listen to. I enjoy applying the context of the lessons in Blink and in this most recent study to wagering on sporting events. However, the lessons and principles are not limited to the sports world. These principles of decision making span our lives and when we are able to grasp them more fully and find ways to implement them, we end up making better decisions.

Click Here for a Text of the Study

The officiating change in the NBA caught some headlines early in the year because it was new. The chatter died down because not even the NBA plays attention to the NBA in the middle of the season, but now it is at full blast. The officiating crackdown on ‘bad behavior’ re-emerged in the spotlight when Joey Crawford chucked Tim Duncan and was then subsequently suspended. The league then came down on the Crawford in an appropriate manner in that the message was consistent. “If you act inappropriately you will be punished”, that is the NBA’s message. The refs are now going to defend their own. Being that this is the first playoffs with the new hard-line approach, the players will invariably cross the line if for no other reason than no one really knows where the line is. Players that are able to adapt an attitude befitting a CYO Sportsmanship Award winner, will be better served.

It happened last night. I liked the Warriors getting 9.5 and I know they would’ve covered had the Warriors not had two dudes, Davis and Jackson no less, get run from the game. Not saying they shouldn’t have been, just saying they were. Expect a few more incidents like this to happen again around the league. The teams and players that can not control themselves must be thought of as a liability, even if only to a minor degree.

Playoffs So Far: I can’t say that I am surprised at anything that has transpired in the playoffs. I like the Warriors more now than I did, but still think the Mavs will win that series . . . The Bulls can sweep the Heat, and just may . . . Detroit will be resting soon . . . New Jersey will all their warts will still advance because of experience and then get SMOKED in the next round. However, should Toronto find a way, they will be very dangerous next round because they will get a missing ingredient which is Playoff Confidence . . . Cleveland is getting a free pass this round . . . The Nuggets will be the next team to implode like the Warriors . . . The Lakers will not make a run at the Suns, repeat WILL NOT . . . The Rockets are interesting, very, very interesting. I think I like them.

Tonight I like a 2-team parlay of (Pistons -2) (Rockets +4.5) for 3-Stars and the (Suns -4) for 2-stars

With the NBA playoffs now set, here are my predictions for First Round winners:

Eastern Conference

Detroit over Orlando in 5 games

Chicago over Miami in 6 games

New Jersey over Toronto in 7 games

Cleveland over Washington in 5 games

Western Conference

Dallas over Golden State in 6 games

Phoenix over L.A. Lakers in 6 games

San Antonio over Denver in 7 games

Houston over Utah in 7 games

With college basketball now over I like to split my focus between the NBA and Major League Baseball. I don’t know that last time I watched a regular season NBA game from start to finish. I also am not sure it is necessary to watch an entire game, but it is vital for me to being paying more attention to team’s strengths and weaknesses. As I have discussed before, our personal insights into matchups, both at the team and individual level, are an important piece to the equation. Without it, we are left to guess, or worse yet we default to old habits and biases, which will never do us any good.

I will also be publishing a multiple part post on Progressive Betting, which is how I like to wager on baseball. In a nutshell, with Progressive Betting I wager on a team for a period of time, i.e. a series, a month, or open ended. I wager on that team every time they play and my wager is always in an amount that will progress me forward a number of units I pre-determine going into the selected time-period. I will discuss and give examples of how this system has brought me success ever since I began implementing it.

In closing, a few quick thoughts on Florida’s win over Ohio St the other night. For the first time in the tournament Greg Oden wasn’t in foul trouble, and that meant trouble for the Buckeyes. I am as guilty as the next for not giving the Ohio St. guards their due. They are a solid group and were the reason for the Buckeyes success. Florida’s game plan was brilliant in that it recognized the true strength of Ohio St, which was not the man-child in the middle but rather their guards. The Gators let Oden rack up points, but never let his teammates find their groove. Great job by Billy Donovan, please don’t go to Kentucky.