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Cliff Lee left the Rangers and no one gave them a shot at the start of this year. The Cardinals were 8.5 games out of the Wildcard in the last month of the season, and no one gave them a shot. The lack of confidence in the Cardinals continued into the first round and all hope seemed lost when they blew an early 3-0 lead to the Phillies, remember them? The best pitching staff ever assembled?! The Rangers meanwhile impressively took care of business and has been cruising through the playoffs.
Neither the Rangers or the Cardinals have gotten great starting pitching, with the exception of Chris Carpenter. The bullpens have carried both teams, with the Cardinals having much more impressive numbers. Can the Red Birds shut down the mighty Ranger lineup? Having the home field advantage certainly helps the Cardinals. While playing in St. Louis the Rangers are going to have to do something about Nelson Cruz batting 7th. With the pitcher two batters behind Cruz there is very little reason for Cruz to be pitched to unless he comes to bat with people already on base. If the Cardinals find a way to deal with Cruz that will go a long way to keeping the Ranger offense in check.
The Cardinals offense has shown that it can put up numbers, and the Ranger pitching staff has not lived up to the reputation it established in the regular season. The Cardinals can rake for sure! Pujols, Berkman and Holliday are known, and now the likes of John Jay and Ryan Thierot are fast becoming known. There has been a lot of clutch hitting for the Cardinals in the past two months.
This Cardinals team seems to have some magic around them. Tony LaRussa has a track record of weaving magic every now and then. The Dean believes the Cardinals will win the series in 6 or 7 games and has placed wagers to that end. 1-star on the Cardinals winning the series in 6 at +450, and 1-star on the Cardinals winning the series in 7, +400.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
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I have not been this excited for a World Series in a long time! There isn’t a baseball fan in the world that shouldn’t be excited for this Series. As a matter of fact, only Mets fans are allowed to not care since they hate both teams. Finally, for the first time in a long time (probably 1999) the two best teams in baseball are facing each other in the World Series, and what a Series it should be.
Baseball is a game that hinges on so many unforeseen things, more than any other sport. For example, who is better Cliff Lee or C.C. Sabathia? An argument can be made either way. Which offense is more powerful? Which team is more clutch? The only discernible difference between these two teams as I see it is their bullpens, more specifically their closers. Mariano Riveria is Mariano Riveria. He is legendary, has proven his worth and there isn’t much else to say about him. Except for this: Mo has shown that he does not field and throw bunts out very well. Perhaps statistically he is as good as any other pitcher performing that task, byt Mo threw away the 2001 World Series against the Diamondbacks, and he almost cost the Yankees the other night against the Angels. Brad Lidge meanwhile should be spoken about in terms of his dominance but because of his shaky regular season performance the topic concerning Lidge is, which one will show up? In the post-season he has been the Lidge of 2008, which is great but in this calendar year he has been more shaky than sturdy.
These two teams played this year in the Bronx with the Phillies taking 2 of 3. In my honest opinion, I wouldn’t blame anyone for placing money on either team, I think they match up that well. The only thing I am highly certain of is that neither team will sweep, and every game will be a dramatic, nail-biting game that comes down to the last pitch. That being the case, an argument could be made for the Yankees based on their experience in playoff and World Series games. The Phillies however are the team with the more recent World Series experience, and they are the defending champs.
So for whatever it is worth, I placed my money on the Yankees in 6. And I have not been this excited for the World Series in a long time!
The New York Yankees and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team share many common traits; a storied past, the most championships than any other team, a national following, their own television deals (the Yankees actually have a whole channel), and maybe a few others.
Today they share another trait, and that is having a bit of ridicule hurled at them by those that cry about unfair systems. The Yankees are catching heat for the money they are spending, and Notre Dame is catching heat for accepting a bowl bid after completing a 6-6 season.
The Yankees spend a lot of money, everyone knows it. Spending all that money obviously doesn’t unlevel the playing field, the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2000. If this field was so tilted by the Yankees spending than why haven’t they won? In case you weren’t paying attention, they didn’t even make the playoffs this year. The Yankees also just received a $26.9 million tax bill from the commissioner’s office. Did you hear the Yankees crying about it? Some other teams complain about this ‘reckless’ spending, but the Yankees are spending with much more care than any other team when you consider the size of the New York market.
The Boston Red Sox made an offer to the newest Yankee, Mark Texiera that was only 5.5% smaller than the Yankees accepted offer, yet the Boston market is a fraction of the size and financial power of the New York market. Who was really being careless? If you want to tell yourself the Red Sox are so savvy that they made the Yankees pay more than they otherwise would have, you must also believe that the Red Sox wanted Bill Buckner to let that ball go through his legs, just to make the 2004 World Series win be that mush more special.
Notre Dame meanwhile is taking heat for being treated like they are Kings of College Football, but they couldn’t beat Queens College in a football game. Now the Irish are playing in a Christmas Eve bowl game and people say they shouldn’t go, because they didn’t earn it. The rule is to have a .500 record or better and win a minimum of 6 games in order to be bowl eligible. Notre Dame meets both of those minimums, even if barely. After that we all know it’s a money grab, so why is everyone bitching and moaning? If the bowl system were fair would there be the yearly outcry of hatred for the system? Notre Dame didn’t create this system.
But more importantly to Notre Dame and their obese fool of a head coach, going to a bowl game allows the Irish to get some extra weeks of practice. Practice that is most definitely needed. Another irony of the unfairness of the bowl system is that the worst teams, those that don’t qualify for a bowl, are at a disadvantage because they miss out on practice time that the better teams, those that do qualify for a bowl, get to have. But the problems with the bowl system are obvious and comprise a list ten miles long.
Whether you love or hate either of these teams, and that is where most people fall, take the time to look at the full scope of each environment. Neither organization should apologize for anything.
The Twins, Rays, and Brewers have been treating me well. I am pausing the Twins today since they are coming off of a win, and then they have a series with the Yankees that is touch and go from my perspective. The Twins may be started up after the Yankee series.
Chance favors the prepared mind. -Pasteur
Despite my earlier proclamation of sticking with the Cubs through the Marlins series, I am closing the Cubs today prior to their game. I still believe the Cubs will make the playoffs, and they very well may get hot again. However, they have some key things working against them. One is that they don’t have a closer, as Kerry Wood was placed on the DL a few days ago. Additionally, the Cubs are and will continue to be big favorites in most of their games thus making each win not very profitable and each loss very costly. My thinking when opening this fund was that the Cubs would be so many games over .500 that the large MLs wouldn’t matter.
With the remaining money in the Cubs stock, I am opening a Colorado Rockies stock beginning today. The Rockies are defending NL Champs yet are 12 games under .500. Last year it was a second half run that propelled the Rockies into the playoffs and they are poised to make a similar run this year. They play in the weakest division in baseball and they are rarely large favorites. Additionally, many of their key players are having years well below their career averages. Things even out in baseball so it is expected that the dudes that are struggling will get it turned around in the second half.
All 4 stocks don’t play until this evening, so come back to the site then to see how many Money Bags are on each stock.
The Cubs trail 2-1 to the D’backs as I write this and my plan for them is to ride them tomorrow and then for the 4 home games they have against the Marlins. I will then pause the Cubs for their 4 games in Milwaukee; restarting them for their 9 game homestand against the Pirates, Astros and Cardinals. At that time I will evaluate the scenario before deciding what to do for the Cubs 6 road games in Atlanta and then Florida. The Cubs then have 6 home games against the Reds and Nationals. That decision can wait.
To say the Cubs bats have been disappointing over the past two games is an understatement. The team that led MLB in offensive productions has mustered just 2 runs in their 2 games since the break, and yesterday’s run was the work of the pitcher Carlos Zambrano hitting a HR. Let’s not panic. The Cubs are the best team in the NL, there really isn’t a question about that. Houston is somewhat hot, and has proven to be a second half team the past couple of years. It is important to remember why the Cubs are in the portfolio. Their record over the second half will be enough games over .500 that they will earn money. For now, until the bats warm up, I am going to lay off aggressive plays and be in position to strike once the Cubs get it going.
The Mets and Tigers are in the same boat. They were hot and may face a little cool down time. Overall, these teams will be in their respective pennant races and there are no plans to inactivate these stocks.
The Brewers are performing to expectation, as they are slightly ahead of the Anticipated Bank after two games. A rare occurrence today with the Brewers, clearly a better team than the Giants, being an underdog. Granted it is because the Giants ace, Tim Lincecum, is throwing; but with the Brewers stock performing well this will be an aggressive play today.
To view the key to what the Money Bags represent. CLICK HERE
Off to a nice start of the second half with the Tigers and Mets getting wins last night. Tonight there is a full slate of action with all 4 active funds in play. After the A’s traded yet another pitcher I dropped them from the portfolio. That makes two pitchers in the past few weeks and GM Billy Beane commented that he is thinking about being a good team for years to come, not just this year. That doesn’t instill confidence.
The Tigers and Mets are being played due to my belief that each team will be at least 12 games over .500 over the remainder of the year. The Cubs are the best team in the NL and have not lost more than 4 games in a row in the first half. The Brewers adding CC Sabathia gives them two aces and a low likelihood of a long losing streak. Additionally, the Brewers were 2 games from the playoffs last year and will challenge for at least a Wild Card spot.
All these stocks will remain open for the foreseeable future
There has been no action since July 9th as I am evaluating which teams to play in the second half. I believe that we got all we are gonna get out of Tampa. If you believe that Tampa is in it until the end, then you also have to believe that they will push to win 95 games. I believe 95 games are necessary to win the AL East. If Tampa does win 95 games, that puts them at 40-29 from here on out. Do you believe that the team that was the worst in MLB last year is going to keep pace with the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox as well as the underachieving New York Yankees? I am not sure. Understand that Baltimore is also improved and the Blue Jays also underperformed in the first half. That makes the Rays remaining schedule fairly difficult.
I do like the Brewers, Mets, Tigers, and A’s in the second half and am also considering the Blue Jays and Twins. The key is to identify who you think will finish over .500 and to also identify those teams Value Index. The higher the Value Index the lower the risk. We will talk more about this later.
I closed the Oakland A’s fund with their trade of Dan Haren to the Cubs. This is due to lack of confidence in the A’s ability to withstand a losing streak. This fund could open in the future. Here is how the fund closed: OAK +15.05%
Yesterday began the Milwaukee Brewer fund. I believe the Brewers will win the majority of their games from here on out as well as having a low likelihood of a losing streak over 5 with the addition of CC Sabathia to a staff that already has Ben Sheets. The Brewers only missed winning the NL Central by 2 games last year. They are legit.
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