Off to a nice start of the second half with the Tigers and Mets getting wins last night. Tonight there is a full slate of action with all 4 active funds in play. After the A’s traded yet another pitcher I dropped them from the portfolio. That makes two pitchers in the past few weeks and GM Billy Beane commented that he is thinking about being a good team for years to come, not just this year. That doesn’t instill confidence.

The Tigers and Mets are being played due to my belief that each team will be at least 12 games over .500 over the remainder of the year. The Cubs are the best team in the NL and have not lost more than 4 games in a row in the first half. The Brewers adding CC Sabathia gives them two aces and a low likelihood of a long losing streak. Additionally, the Brewers were 2 games from the playoffs last year and will challenge for at least a Wild Card spot.

All these stocks will remain open for the foreseeable future

There has been no action since July 9th as I am evaluating which teams to play in the second half. I believe that we got all we are gonna get out of Tampa. If you believe that Tampa is in it until the end, then you also have to believe that they will push to win 95 games. I believe 95 games are necessary to win the AL East. If Tampa does win 95 games, that puts them at 40-29 from here on out. Do you believe that the team that was the worst in MLB last year is going to keep pace with the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox as well as the underachieving New York Yankees? I am not sure. Understand that Baltimore is also improved and the Blue Jays also underperformed in the first half. That makes the Rays remaining schedule fairly difficult.

I do like the Brewers, Mets, Tigers, and A’s in the second half and am also considering the Blue Jays and Twins. The key is to identify who you think will finish over .500 and to also identify those teams Value Index. The higher the Value Index the lower the risk. We will talk more about this later.

I closed the Oakland A’s fund with their trade of Dan Haren to the Cubs. This is due to lack of confidence in the A’s ability to withstand a losing streak. This fund could open in the future. Here is how the fund closed: OAK +15.05%

Yesterday began the Milwaukee Brewer fund. I believe the Brewers will win the majority of their games from here on out as well as having a low likelihood of a losing streak over 5 with the addition of CC Sabathia to a staff that already has Ben Sheets. The Brewers only missed winning the NL Central by 2 games last year. They are legit.

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Basketball

Tonight’s Action: The NBA Finals will tip-off tonight at 9:00pm in Boston in an old-school matchup of Lakers vs. Celtics. The Celtics are 2.5 point favorites and the Total is set at 191.5. There will be a ton of emotion early before both teams settle into their groove, that seems to make the Under a good wager, and the downward movement of the Total since it opened at 194 tells you how the rest of gamblers are viewing this game. But The Dean is not a Total player, so you do what you need to with that. With the game, the Celtics have no starters that were in the Finals before but they have veterans on their bench that have been. That calming influence and experience will be felt in Game 1. The Celtics were the best team in the regular season when it came to Ws and Ls and their home-court dominance is what carried them in the playoffs.

There are many matchups that are intriguing, some that are scary and others that are yet determined. With it all out there, I will be laying 3-stars on the Celtics minus the points tonight while paying special attention to the methodologies implemented by both coaches.

For the series, The Dean says Celtics in 7. If you don’t like that prediction, perhaps you would rather side with Tmac by the Bay who likes the Lakers in 6.

Baseball

American League: The Detroit Tigers are now 11-games under .500 after losing to the A’s 10-2 . . . The Angles took a 5-4 decision from the Mariners . . . Boston has taken the first two of a 3-game set from the Rays, 5-1 . . . The Yankees defeated the Blue Jays by the same 5-1 score . . . The Indians and the Rangers keep scoring a ton of runs, last night it was the Indians that scored more 15-9 . . . The Twins slowly move up in the standings, winning last night 7-5 over the Orioles . . . In 15 innings the White Sox defeated the Royals 6-4.

National League: The Marlins put up 4 in the 9th to beat the BRaves 6-4 . . . Milwaukee stays hot and Arizona does not as the Brewers win 10-1 . . . The Rockies won another, 2-1 over the Dodgers . . . The New York Mets take advantage of the SF Giants 5-3 . . . The Reds win a 2-0 decision over the Phillies . . . The Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Houston Astros 5-2 . . . The Cubs had their 9-game winning streak snapped as the Padres won 2-1 . . . The Nationals got a win of sorts as they and the Cardinals were rained out.

Who’s Hot? / Who’s Not?: The Brewers have won 6 in a row . . . The Angles have won 5 in a row and the A’s have won 4 straight . . . The Mariners have dropped 4-straight and have the worst record in MLB.

Scores

Standings

Football

Nothing worth your valuable time in football.

Hockey

The Detroit Red Wings defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-2 to capture the Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Other

Big Brown got the #1 post for Saturday’s running of the Belmont Stakes. Not the best position to start in, but neither was his position at the Kentucky Derby where he started at the furthest out position and still won.

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I am sitting at the bar of Josie’s on the Upper West Side enjoying a Blood Orange Margarita, making light conversation with an adorable bartender who just so happens to be named Josie and alternately reading news on my Palm, reading an article in The Atlantic about China, and texting friends. This is of course going against all I am trying to learn in regards to focusing and meditation, but old habits die hard and the margarita only spurs more thought.

For a Friday night, there were some real good news bits. NFL Free Agency singings, Hank Steinbrenner making comments that brought a huge smile to my face, and a report that a judge ordered the grand jury testimony of Barry Bonds to be unsealed. For me, being able to alternate between Josie, the margarita, China, text messages and great sports news was almost more than I could handle.

Let me start with what, in my opinion, is the most significant free agency signing of this early free agency season. Asante Samuel signed a 6 year contract with the Philadelphia Eagles, reportedly worth $57 million with $20 million of it guaranteed. This is a big deal for the Eagles and for the Patriots. This past season the Eagles had the fewest takeaways in the league and did not score a defensive touchdown. This fact was blurred in Philadelphia where all people want to do is bash Donovan McNabb. So that is one piece of the puzzle for the Eagles that should help them be near the top of the hyper-competitive NFC East next year.

For the Patriots, not re-signing Samuel could signify a much larger trend for the most dominant team in the past 10 years. After the Giants win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, I was chatting with good friend T-Mac by the Bay and he posed to me the following question. “Which Super Bowl team, Giants or Patriots, are most likely to miss the playoffs next season?” He asked this question because for the past 5 or so years one Super Bowl participant had not made the playoffs the following year. At the time, both T-Mac and I were looking for a reason to say the Pats would not make the playoffs, but we both knew it would come down to the off-season and what deals were made or not made. Now, with Samuel gone and Randy Moss unsigned T-Mac and I have the ammunition we need to go with the Patriots as the team to not make the playoffs. However, with the AFC East being considerably weaker than the NFC East, and with the Giants losing some key defensive players yesterday (Kawika Mitchell to the Bills, Reggie Torbor to the Dolphins, and Gibril Wilson to the Raiders), and Michael Strahan undecided on his possible return, the Giants are certainly no lock to make the playoffs next year.

Speaking of the Patriots and Giants, this past Super Bowl did nothing to chill the rivalry between New York and the pseudo-city to the north, Boston. And with spring training underway Hank Steinbrenner threw a big heaping serving of gasoline onto the already roaring fire. To go back to last week, Boston GM Theo Epstein made comments about the Red Sox upcoming trip to Japan and for some reason felt it necessary to name Mike Mussina as an example of a player that bitched and moaned about the trip when the Yankees went to the Pacific Rim a few years back. While Epstein’s intention was to say to his players, don’t bitch and moan, there was no reason for him to mention Mike Mussina by name, and even more unnecessary was to say that the Yankees used it as an excuse considering that they won the division that year.

Now to Hank’s comments, which he made during an interview that will appear in The New York Times Play magazine. Here is Hank’s comment: “”Red Sox Nation?” What a bunch of shit that is. That was a creation of the Red Sox and ESPN, which is filled with Red Sox fans. Go anywhere in America and you won’t see Red Sox hats and jackets, you’ll see Yankee hats and jackets. This is a Yankee country. We’re going to put the Yankees back on top and restore the universe to order.”

I love it! Keep it up Hank! And Fuck the Red Sox!

I know a lot of people are tired of all the steroid and HGH talk, and people feel that pursuing liars is a waste of time and money. However, I am not one of those people.

First, when baseball games begin people will focus on baseball and the steroid talk will only come up when a player tests positive. That does not mean that those who have tangled themselves in their own web of lies won’t be the focus of talk, but that is a good thing.

Let me address everyone’s concerns about how Congress spends their time and our tax dollars. The war in Iraq, poverty, homelessness, the US economy and all other very important issues are in no way being pushed aside. If the issue of performance enhancing drugs wasn’t a topic, the aforementioned issues would still exist and they wouldn’t be any closer to resolution.

Second, if people told the truth there wouldn’t be a need for a Congressional investigation. When you lie, especially under oath, you are asking for trouble. Just ask Bill Clinton. The truth shall set you free, and it is about time people start speaking the truth. We all want sports figures to be role models but now that they are being asked to be true role models of how a person should act, a few of them are showing their true colors of liars and cheats that will stop at nothing to salvage their own egos.

Roger and Barry loved being in the spotlight, and wanted nothing more than to further their careers and to acquire more attention. Be careful what you wish for gentlemen, wou just might get it.

Lastly, professional sports leagues are given huge breaks when it comes to taxes and anti-trust exemptions. They do owe it to us, the American people, and to Congress, to answer these questions and to run leagues that at the very least appear to be legitimate. In an upcoming article I will write about the future of the NFL and gambling and why the New England Patriots supposed spying is a big deal.

With college basketball now over I like to split my focus between the NBA and Major League Baseball. I don’t know that last time I watched a regular season NBA game from start to finish. I also am not sure it is necessary to watch an entire game, but it is vital for me to being paying more attention to team’s strengths and weaknesses. As I have discussed before, our personal insights into matchups, both at the team and individual level, are an important piece to the equation. Without it, we are left to guess, or worse yet we default to old habits and biases, which will never do us any good.

I will also be publishing a multiple part post on Progressive Betting, which is how I like to wager on baseball. In a nutshell, with Progressive Betting I wager on a team for a period of time, i.e. a series, a month, or open ended. I wager on that team every time they play and my wager is always in an amount that will progress me forward a number of units I pre-determine going into the selected time-period. I will discuss and give examples of how this system has brought me success ever since I began implementing it.

In closing, a few quick thoughts on Florida’s win over Ohio St the other night. For the first time in the tournament Greg Oden wasn’t in foul trouble, and that meant trouble for the Buckeyes. I am as guilty as the next for not giving the Ohio St. guards their due. They are a solid group and were the reason for the Buckeyes success. Florida’s game plan was brilliant in that it recognized the true strength of Ohio St, which was not the man-child in the middle but rather their guards. The Gators let Oden rack up points, but never let his teammates find their groove. Great job by Billy Donovan, please don’t go to Kentucky.