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NFC Championship: New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

The Dean went 2-1 last Sunday, wishing I could’ve gotten rid of that half-point on the Ravens line, but Giants moneyline and taking the points made for a profitable day. Let’s Go!

New York Giants (ML) +105 @ San Francisco 49ers (5-stars):Need me to make a very strong argument that the Giants are going to win? No problem. Need me to make a very strong argument that the 49ers are going to win? Not a problem either. All week I have heard numerous arguments, stats, data, and opinion on behalf of both teams, and I agree with them all. That being said, I have identified what I believe to the most important factors and it leaves me very confidently on one side of the equation.

The Giants far surpass the 49ers when it comes to playoff experience. But if you believe the 49ers are a team of destiny, and I can see why some think they are, than it doesn’t matter about experience, they have destiny. Bottom line on this is that the Giants are not going to be negatively affected by being on the road, that’s what the experience factor does, it negates the home field advantage.

That doesn’t address everyone’s favorite NFL mantra, ‘Defense Wins Championships’. Yes it does, or at least it can. When you look at the stats for the entire year the 49ers defense is clearly better statistically. However, momentum matters so I am less interested in yearly stats and much more interested in a more recent sample. So let’s look at the last 3 games for each team. Over that span the Giants played the Cowboys, the Falcons and the Packers, all of them being win or go home games. The 49ers played the Seahawks, the Rams, and the Saints. The Giants defense has allowed 12.0 points per game while the 49ers have allowed 25.3. The Giants have allowed 311.7 yards per game and the 49ers have allowed 349.3. The Giants run defense is also allowing fewer yards per game on the ground than the 49ers defense. So, yes defense does win championships and the Giants defense is the better of the two going into this game.

Alex Smith has had a great year, but its great because of how bad his previous years were. All things being equal, Alex Smith had a good year. His throws to Vernon Davis last week were clutch and he looked good doing it. Eli Manning meanwhile has been here before, done this before. Eli Manning did have a great year, and he gets to play a defense that he has already faced once this year. For a cerebral QB like Manning, that will make a difference. Granted Alex Smith is facing the same defense he faced earlier, but its the same in uniform only. This is a different Giants defense than in Week 9.

One of the bigger factors for me is last week. The 49ers played an immensely emotional game in beating the Saints. We see it all the time, the emotional hangover, the inability to match the intensity the week after being immersed in so much emotion. The Giants on the other hand had an unemotional game.

I am taking the Giants to win outright +105 for 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 47-41-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +15.58%