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AFC Championship: Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

The Dean went 2-1 last Sunday, wishing I could’ve gotten rid of that half-point on the Ravens line, but Giants moneyline and taking the points made for a profitable day. Let’s Go!

Baltimore Ravens +7 @ New England Patriots (5-stars) and Ravens to win +250: The New England Patriots have not lost since their Week 9 loss to the Giants, which was also at home. Since then, the Patriots have caught fire offensively and compiled good defensive games to boost that unit’s shaky resume. The Ravens meanwhile have unimpressively taken care of business. The praise of Tom Brady is as high as its ever been, and the ridicule of Joe Flacco is as high as ever. Seems simple, right? Maybe, but I see this game a bit differently.

Look at the Patriots 9 consecutive win and you will find one playoff team, the Denver Broncos, who also was the Patriots victim last week. So 2 of 9 were against the Broncos, and the others were: Jets, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Dolphins, and Bills. The Ravens aren’t going to knock your socks off over that same stretch, but they did beat the Steelres twice this year, when the Steelers were still healthy; beat the Bengals when the Bengals needed the win; and, beat the 49ers. What I see is a Patriots team that is overvalued and a Ravens team that is undervalued. That is not to say I think the Patriots are overrated, but overvalued. That belief makes taking a full TD very enticing, so I will. I will also run for a nice payoff and take the Ravens to win the game at +250. When everyone goes one way, and can never see how one team will beat another, I like to go the opposite, because that’s how the NFL works.

Give me the Ravens and the 7 points for 5-stars, and the Ravens to win outright +250, also at 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 47-41-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +15.58%