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NFC Championship: New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

The Dean went 2-1 last Sunday, wishing I could’ve gotten rid of that half-point on the Ravens line, but Giants moneyline and taking the points made for a profitable day. Let’s Go!

New York Giants (ML) +105 @ San Francisco 49ers (5-stars):Need me to make a very strong argument that the Giants are going to win? No problem. Need me to make a very strong argument that the 49ers are going to win? Not a problem either. All week I have heard numerous arguments, stats, data, and opinion on behalf of both teams, and I agree with them all. That being said, I have identified what I believe to the most important factors and it leaves me very confidently on one side of the equation.

The Giants far surpass the 49ers when it comes to playoff experience. But if you believe the 49ers are a team of destiny, and I can see why some think they are, than it doesn’t matter about experience, they have destiny. Bottom line on this is that the Giants are not going to be negatively affected by being on the road, that’s what the experience factor does, it negates the home field advantage.

That doesn’t address everyone’s favorite NFL mantra, ‘Defense Wins Championships’. Yes it does, or at least it can. When you look at the stats for the entire year the 49ers defense is clearly better statistically. However, momentum matters so I am less interested in yearly stats and much more interested in a more recent sample. So let’s look at the last 3 games for each team. Over that span the Giants played the Cowboys, the Falcons and the Packers, all of them being win or go home games. The 49ers played the Seahawks, the Rams, and the Saints. The Giants defense has allowed 12.0 points per game while the 49ers have allowed 25.3. The Giants have allowed 311.7 yards per game and the 49ers have allowed 349.3. The Giants run defense is also allowing fewer yards per game on the ground than the 49ers defense. So, yes defense does win championships and the Giants defense is the better of the two going into this game.

Alex Smith has had a great year, but its great because of how bad his previous years were. All things being equal, Alex Smith had a good year. His throws to Vernon Davis last week were clutch and he looked good doing it. Eli Manning meanwhile has been here before, done this before. Eli Manning did have a great year, and he gets to play a defense that he has already faced once this year. For a cerebral QB like Manning, that will make a difference. Granted Alex Smith is facing the same defense he faced earlier, but its the same in uniform only. This is a different Giants defense than in Week 9.

One of the bigger factors for me is last week. The 49ers played an immensely emotional game in beating the Saints. We see it all the time, the emotional hangover, the inability to match the intensity the week after being immersed in so much emotion. The Giants on the other hand had an unemotional game.

I am taking the Giants to win outright +105 for 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 47-41-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +15.58%

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AFC Championship: Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

The Dean went 2-1 last Sunday, wishing I could’ve gotten rid of that half-point on the Ravens line, but Giants moneyline and taking the points made for a profitable day. Let’s Go!

Baltimore Ravens +7 @ New England Patriots (5-stars) and Ravens to win +250: The New England Patriots have not lost since their Week 9 loss to the Giants, which was also at home. Since then, the Patriots have caught fire offensively and compiled good defensive games to boost that unit’s shaky resume. The Ravens meanwhile have unimpressively taken care of business. The praise of Tom Brady is as high as its ever been, and the ridicule of Joe Flacco is as high as ever. Seems simple, right? Maybe, but I see this game a bit differently.

Look at the Patriots 9 consecutive win and you will find one playoff team, the Denver Broncos, who also was the Patriots victim last week. So 2 of 9 were against the Broncos, and the others were: Jets, Chiefs, Eagles, Colts, Redskins, Dolphins, and Bills. The Ravens aren’t going to knock your socks off over that same stretch, but they did beat the Steelres twice this year, when the Steelers were still healthy; beat the Bengals when the Bengals needed the win; and, beat the 49ers. What I see is a Patriots team that is overvalued and a Ravens team that is undervalued. That is not to say I think the Patriots are overrated, but overvalued. That belief makes taking a full TD very enticing, so I will. I will also run for a nice payoff and take the Ravens to win the game at +250. When everyone goes one way, and can never see how one team will beat another, I like to go the opposite, because that’s how the NFL works.

Give me the Ravens and the 7 points for 5-stars, and the Ravens to win outright +250, also at 5-stars.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 47-41-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +15.58%

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St. Dougie hit the road on Wednesday night to take in a Patriot League battle between the Bucknell Bison and Lehigh Engineers Mountain Hawks.

Nothing like a little January road trip to shake the winter doldrums loose. The plan was to take in a little mid-major D-I hoops action. Last night Saint Dougie set sail for Bethlehem, PA for a battle of Patriot League contenders and their two fringe NBA prospects, Bucknell and junior big man Mike Muscala and Lehigh and junior guard CJ McCollum, the past two league champions and the past two Patriot League players of the year facing off.

First off, the saint had no idea what a chill downtown area that Bethlehem has. Hit the Bethlehem Brew Works before the game and it was a good place for chillin’ and a grub. Downtown Bethlehem has some nice shops, restaurants and bars, etc. and it’s really clean. If going to Lehigh again (Patriot League tourney game maybe?), I would hit the joint again for sure. Tried a blueberry wheat beer and a pumpkin beer. Despite not being a big beer guy (Saints like the hard booze.), I felt compelled to try some since I was there.

Second off, the Lehigh crowd gets a big ol’ gas face. Only 1,900 on hand and they were dead as hell for what was a big game for both teams. No chants, no cheers, not much of anything really – though they did have a nice little pep band. Atmosphere was not at all what I had expected – in that regard, the road trip was a slight letdown. Should have known when we saw a Lehigh cheerleader and her crew at the brewery before the game (liked seeing that and some other Lehigh fans and figured crowd was getting ready for game) and asked her if a lot of students were going and were they hyped and she replied, “Honestly, no. Maybe tonight it will be different because it’s a big game, but the students here don’t get into the games very much if they even go at all.” I was like, “Awwww nawww!”

Was excited to see a Mid-Penn Conference boy and Steel High Rolla in Bucknell’s Ryan Hil. Hill played 25 minutes, contributing solid D – even matching up with McCollum on occasion and did well. He also had 6 boards, 5 assists and only 1 turnover. Hill did however pass up some open outside looks from just inside 3 point arc that I would have liked to see him take.

Not entirely sure that the McCollum from Lehigh is playing in the NBA in my humble opinion. He’s barely 6-2/6-3 and slight of frame – though only a junior. You can see the talent is there for sure but Bryan Cohen from Bucknell did a great job on him and made everything tough and they rotated so many double teams at him, he didn’t have room to breathe. Shot 5-15 and had 3 turnovers – though he did have 9 assists – and was very content in trying to help all of his teammates. For him to play in the NBA, I’d be surprised. No matter what some scouts say.

Muscala for the Bison… you can see why the scouts like him. He’s a legit 6-10 and he has range out to the college 3 line – hit 2 of ‘em – finished with 20 and 12 boards, though he didn’t shoot well (7 for 18). They utilize him a little strangely at times and I think he should get it on the block on every play rather out at the high post as he did on many occasions. That being said, as a junior, with putting on more weight/strength (even though he isn’t bad now), I can see him definitely getting an NBA look because he is so skilled for a dude that size. Plus, he is patient and doesn’t force anything at all. Could I see him being an NBA regular? No. But can he sneak on a roster. Perhaps.

The Bison had a little more poise down the stretch and pulled out a 68-61 win, getting a big leg up in the Patriot now. A major leg up on locking up that home court for the Patriot League tourney. Definitely like how the Patriot rewards the regular season champ/higher seeded teams with home games throughout the tourney. Other mid-major conferences should all do that instead of neutral site ish for the whole tourney. Since only the tourney title winner of mid-major conferences generally make the dance, they shouldn’t discount the regular season achievements of a team by throwing the tourney at a neutral site. Let the teams get some reward for their regular season accomplishments.

If the Bison do dance, I believe they have a shot at a win in it. Muscala is a legit big man against anyone in the nation. Ryan Ayers (Randy’s kid, the old Sixer coach) can play and they are so patient and really play together well and can shoot the 3.

That’s a wrap.

Box Score

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NFL Divisional Playoffs – Sunday

The Dean went 1-1 yesterday, winning a 5-star bet (Patriots) and losing a 3-star bet (Saints). Both games went as I had thought they would, only its the Saints who I thought would get the final score. The winnings were increased yesterday, so it was a good day. Let’s do it again today!

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs Houston Texans (5-stars): The Ravens have been really tough to figure out this year. The Texans have had a franchise record setting year despite losing one QB after another. The Texans ultimately ran away with last week’s game against the Bengals but that was as much to do with the Bengals being the Bengals and less about the Texans putting together a dominating performance. The Ravens home crowd really gets after it and as good as TJ Yates has been, let’s see how he rolls against a well rested Ravens defense that is also healthier today than they have been in a long time. Raven QB Joe Flacco has not had a great year, but is very capable of lighting up a scoreboard. I see the Ravens winning this one going away. I’ll give the 7.5 and take the Ravens for 5-stars.

New York Giants +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers (3-stars) and Giants to Win +270 (1-star) :The Giants are being compared to their 2007 season when they played the Patriots tough in the regular season and then beat them in the Super Bowl. I get the comparison, but I also see a more accurate comparison to last year’s Packer team. If you recall the 2010 Packers struggled through most of the year with injuries and some bad losses. They got healthy at the end of the year and also caught fire and ultimately proved to be too much for any other team. The Giants also have struggled all year with injuries and are now healthier than they have been all year. They are also a hot team with momentum on their side. The Giants will obviously not be intimidated by the Lambeau Field or the Packer mystique. The Giants are also a more balanced team. Yes the Packers offense can be ridiculously good, but the Giant offense can score with anyone. I expect a tight game and have the Giants +7.5 for 3-stars. I also see the Giants winning this game and will take them +270 for 1-star.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 45-40-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +11.94%

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NFL Divisional Playoffs – Saturday

The Dean went 3-1 last week, but unfortunately the 1 loss was a 5-star bet. A positive weekend though and we keep making money as we keep being right.

New Orleans Saints -3 @ San Francisco 49ers (3-stars): Boy oh boy did I debate this one. I went around and around, back and forth and side to side all week. The Saints on the road are different offensively than they are at home, true. The 49ers defense is good, true. However their strength is against the run. The 49ers have shown a way to win games, control the ball, make turnovers and not commit turnovers, true. I saw Eli Manning throw for a lot of yards and Drew Brees will too, true. The 49ers believe in themselves, as well they should. At 3.5 I was liking the 49ers, but at 3 I like the Saints. The action is also paying at -125 for the Saints at 3, so the book is making you pay to get the line at 3. Maybe its a trap, but I think its more about insurance for them. Saints either win with a last second or OT FG, or the win going away. I’ll give the 3 and lay 3-stars on it.

New England Patriots -13.5 vs Denver Broncos (5-stars):Here is the bottom line for me. The Broncos have a lot of wins against the teams can make a lot of excuses. Backup QBs, injured teams, etc. But when you look at the games they’ve lost, it is against teams that are better than they are and enter the game with their rosters intact. I do believe in the power of believing, and the Broncos certainly have a chance, one never knows, thats why the game is played. At the end of the day, the probability greatly favors the Broncos losing big than it does them pulling a massive upset. And it would be a massive upset. I am not interested in how ‘bad’ the Patriots defense is, stats do not tell the whole story. I’m going 5-stars on the Patriots -13.5

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 44-39-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +10.19%

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NFL Wildcard Weekend – Sunday

The Dean enters the playoffs hot! Up until Week 14 The Dean’s NFL Bankroll was in the red. Sticking with the plan, which is rooted in not panicking, and one 4-team parlay, allowed a late season resurgence. After going 2-0 yesterday The Dean is now up 11.4% and is 14-4-1 since Week 14. Let’s keep it rolling, its time to harvest!

New York Giants -3 vs Atlanta Falcons (3-stars): If you recall, DeanBrowski.com predicted a Falcons v. Patriots Super Bowl. While that possibility is still intact, The Dean is predicting the earlier prediction will not happen. The Falcons are the most underwhelming of the NFC playoff teams. There seemed to be little drama to their season. The started a bit slow, are second fiddle in their division, didn’t have any bad losses but also only accumulated one quality win (they beat the Lions in Detroit). This Falcons team flew under the radar, and while they are in the playoffs they have not lived up to the preseason hype. The Giants meanwhile have had a roller coaster season. Huge wins against the Patriots, Jets and twice against the Cowboys. Not that the Jets and Cowboys are great teams, but they were must wins for the Giants. They took the NFC #1 and #2 seeds to the wire as well. They also lost twice to the Redskins, once to Seattle at home, and had a really bad loss to a Vince Yong led Eagles team. The Giants have also dealt with injuries all year and are most likely the healthiest they have been so far this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons win, but I am betting that Eli will be on his game, the Giants running attack will be better than it has all year, and the pass rush will be too much for the Falcons to handle. I am going to lay 3-stars on the Giants and give the 3 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 @ Denver Broncos (4-stars): It seems that every Broncos opponent since Tebow has taken over at QB have come to the game with some issue of their own to deal with. The only impressive quality of the Bronco wins is how unimpressive they look in winning. Here come the Steelers with their own set of issues. Big Ben is banged up, their starting RB is out for the season, and they have a key defensive player not playing because of a blood disorder that is exacerbated at altitude. Really?! Yup, really. But cut through all of that and look at what you really have. On one hand you have an experienced team that knows how to win football games, can win in a variety of ways, and has one of the best defensive units in the game. On the other hand you have an inexperienced team that plays on a faith that has been severely shaken the past few weeks, can’t score points unless their defense or special teams scores them, and backed into the playoffs thanks to the dysfunction of their divisional opponents. Dean is going to lay the 8 points on the road and take the Steelers at 4-stars

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 43-38-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +11.39%

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NFL Wildcard Weekend – Saturday

The Dean enters the playoffs hot! Up until Week 14 The Dean’s NFL Bankroll was in the red. Sticking with the plan, which is rooted in not panicking, and one 4-team parlay, allowed a late season resurgence and up 6.3%. 12-4-1 since Week 14. Let’s keep it rolling, its time to harvest!

Houston Texans -4 vs Cincinnati Bengals (3-stars): The Texans clinched their playoff spot by beating the Bengals on the road. They did it with a last second TD to win 20-19. The Texans gave up 5 sacks, turned the ball over 5 times, yet still found a way to win. They now play in Houston and Andre Johnson is slated to start, he did not play last time. On top of that, the Bengals accumulated all their wins against below-average or bad teams. A lot of people are giving the Bengals a chance, I don’t see it. I’m taking the Texans and giving the points at 3-stars.

New Orleans Saints -10.5 vs Detroit Lions (1-star): This game should be a shoot-out, to state the obvious. I do believe the Lions have a puncher’s chance at winning, but I really don’t believe they will. A 41-34 game with 2 minutes to go sounds about right. Then the Saints score a late TD to win by 14. I’ll give the points and take the Saints, but am playing it at 1-star.

Dean Browski’s 2011 NFL Betting Record To Date

Straight: 41-38-1

Parlays: 1-14-2

Bankroll +/-: +6.29%