New Orleans Saints (+5, +165) vs Indianapolis Colts (-5, -200)

Growing up, if you had told me that in back-to-back Super Bowls, the Cardinals and the Saints would be playing I would have never believed you. I understand that over time any team can rise up and have their moment, but the Saints having their moment seemed more impossible than most any other team. Yet, here they are. They are here with all their history, both of their football team and of their city; both glorious and tragic. Glorious you ask? Yes, the city of New Orleans is a glorious place. With that said, I should preface my prediction with “I am rooting for the Saints today.” I have struggled all this week with separating who I want to win from who I think will win.

That being said, there is good debate and many good points to be made for both teams. I don’t wish to spend much time on the obvious, or the oft repeated. So let me get them out of the way. Both offenses are good. Both defenses have question marks. The Colts have experience, the Saints have none. Peyton Manning is probably the best ever QB, but at the very least he is one of the greatest. Dwight Freeney is going to try and play, but may not be that effective. Ok, I think that covers it.

Now on to some of the finer points that may be considered over analysis, but that’s half the fun. Both Jim Caldwell, Colts head coach, and Sean Payton, Saints head coach, are first time head coaches in the Super Bowl. However, both have experience as assistants and also a pipeline of other coaches to tap into. Here is an advantage for the Saints, their head coach can tap into coaches like Bill Parcells, and Caldwell is able to tap into Tony Dungy. Caldwell knows Dungy’s experience, and Dungy himself gets a lot of credit for being a great person and a great leader of men, but a great coach he is not. Not when compared to the coaches that Sean Payton has at his disposal.

The Saints cause turnovers. That is how they beat the Vikings, which actually leads some people to make the claim that the Colts will not turn the ball over 5 times and therefore the Saints won’t have that benefit and will end up losing. The Saints are the second best in the NFL this year at takeaways. With that stat in mind, the Vikings turning the ball over 5 times is not a fluke, its what the Saints do. They also score points on special teams and with their defense.

The Colts have faced two offenses in the post-season that spent more time making sure their QBs didn’t make mistakes than they did attacking the Colts. When the Jets attacked the Colts in the first half of their game, they grabbed an 11 point lead. The Jets didn’t keep the pressure on, the Saints will.

There is obviously a great case to be made for the Colts to win this game. I believe in the Saints more. Maybe its because I am influenced by my love of New Orleans, or the struggles of the city, or even the fleur de lys on their super cool helmets. Like I said, I am rooting for the Saints, but I also believe they will win and that is why I will take the Saints moneyline at +165. Go Saints!