Indianapolis Colts -8 vs New York Jets

There are parts to this game that have me believing the Jets will win, however there are parts to this game that tell me they won’t. I have sat with with my thoughts all week and it was last night that I finally felt comfortable with my pick for this game. Something that scares me about the Jets is how a whole lot of people are taking them to win. The reason this bothers me is that Cinderellas aren’t really Cinderellas if everyone believes in them. No one believed in Cinderella, so all these people backing the Jets makes me awfully nervous for Rex Ryan and his players.

There has also been a lot of discussion on just which games we can take something relevant away from and use in our analysis. Everyone points to the Jets last trip to Indianapolis but there are questions as to what can be taken from that game. The Colts obviously did not play their starters the whole game, and they eventually lost, but had the lead at the time their starters departed. But it was only a 5 point lead, a game the Jets were surely still in and had a chance to win regardless of the Colts personnel decisions. However, the Colts entered that game knowing that they didn’t need it, that it was more for the purposes of maintaining timing and not allowing rust to settle on the team. The Jets meanwhile HAD to have that game, and they didn’t just have to have the game in the 2nd half, they needed it all game long.

So what happened in the first half when the Colts motivation was more scrimmage like, and the Jets motivation was survival? Well, the Colts racked up 296 yards of offense in barely more than a half of football. And the turning point of the game was a rookie mistake by rookie QB Curtis Painter who replaced Manning. My point here is, I understand the Jets have the #1 defense this year, but that defense has also been taken apart at times this year. In addition, the Jets special teams has been equally horrific and outstanding. There was a Jet Kickoff Return for a TD and a blocked PAT in the game against the Colts, and there were also 2 Kickoff Returns against the Jets in a game with Miami.

I expect the Colts to put up points today, at least 28 of them. While the Colts don’t run a Wildcat formation, their versatility on offense, while not necessarily utilized this year, will be too much for the Jets to handle. Throw on top of that a Jets offense that will do well to score 17 points on any given Sunday and in my opinion you have the Colts covering the 8 points.

New Orleans Saints -3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings

Boy oh boy are there some subplots to this game! The Saints being such an inspiration to the entire city and surrounding areas of New Orleans. Louisiana native Brett Favre bringing his new team to town. And the list can go on. Here is what turns this game for me. Voodoo. Yeah, I said Voodoo. There is no shortage of witch doctors and the like in the Big Easy, expect some of their magic to manifest itself in the form of a key Adrian Peterson fumble, or a great play by Darren Sharper in the Saints secondary. Additional Voodoo will be witnessed in the same overwhelming outpouring of emotion that engulfed the Super Dome in the Saints first game after Hurrican Katrina. In that game the Falcons stood ZERO chance of winning, and while I give the Vikings more than a ZERO chance I don’t see them being able to overcome the tangibles that the Saints possess AND the intangibles.

I will take the Saints and give the 3.5 points in what should be an exhilarating game for the ages.