Indianapolis Colts -8 vs New York Jets

There are parts to this game that have me believing the Jets will win, however there are parts to this game that tell me they won’t. I have sat with with my thoughts all week and it was last night that I finally felt comfortable with my pick for this game. Something that scares me about the Jets is how a whole lot of people are taking them to win. The reason this bothers me is that Cinderellas aren’t really Cinderellas if everyone believes in them. No one believed in Cinderella, so all these people backing the Jets makes me awfully nervous for Rex Ryan and his players.

There has also been a lot of discussion on just which games we can take something relevant away from and use in our analysis. Everyone points to the Jets last trip to Indianapolis but there are questions as to what can be taken from that game. The Colts obviously did not play their starters the whole game, and they eventually lost, but had the lead at the time their starters departed. But it was only a 5 point lead, a game the Jets were surely still in and had a chance to win regardless of the Colts personnel decisions. However, the Colts entered that game knowing that they didn’t need it, that it was more for the purposes of maintaining timing and not allowing rust to settle on the team. The Jets meanwhile HAD to have that game, and they didn’t just have to have the game in the 2nd half, they needed it all game long.

So what happened in the first half when the Colts motivation was more scrimmage like, and the Jets motivation was survival? Well, the Colts racked up 296 yards of offense in barely more than a half of football. And the turning point of the game was a rookie mistake by rookie QB Curtis Painter who replaced Manning. My point here is, I understand the Jets have the #1 defense this year, but that defense has also been taken apart at times this year. In addition, the Jets special teams has been equally horrific and outstanding. There was a Jet Kickoff Return for a TD and a blocked PAT in the game against the Colts, and there were also 2 Kickoff Returns against the Jets in a game with Miami.

I expect the Colts to put up points today, at least 28 of them. While the Colts don’t run a Wildcat formation, their versatility on offense, while not necessarily utilized this year, will be too much for the Jets to handle. Throw on top of that a Jets offense that will do well to score 17 points on any given Sunday and in my opinion you have the Colts covering the 8 points.

New Orleans Saints -3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings

Boy oh boy are there some subplots to this game! The Saints being such an inspiration to the entire city and surrounding areas of New Orleans. Louisiana native Brett Favre bringing his new team to town. And the list can go on. Here is what turns this game for me. Voodoo. Yeah, I said Voodoo. There is no shortage of witch doctors and the like in the Big Easy, expect some of their magic to manifest itself in the form of a key Adrian Peterson fumble, or a great play by Darren Sharper in the Saints secondary. Additional Voodoo will be witnessed in the same overwhelming outpouring of emotion that engulfed the Super Dome in the Saints first game after Hurrican Katrina. In that game the Falcons stood ZERO chance of winning, and while I give the Vikings more than a ZERO chance I don’t see them being able to overcome the tangibles that the Saints possess AND the intangibles.

I will take the Saints and give the 3.5 points in what should be an exhilarating game for the ages.

Baltimore Ravens +160 (ML) @ New England Patriots

I struggled with this game. The loss of Wes Welker definitely weighed heavily in my early thinking, but it was countered by the fact that the Patriots have a great system, and Julian Edelman has proven capable of filling Welker’s shoes, at least moderately. What ultimately swayed me toward the Ravens is the Patriots defense and their inability to stop people this year. The first time these two teams met the Ravens stopped themselves. In that game the Ravens ran the ball a mere 17 times, yet accumulated over 100 yards. Of late, the Ravens have been running the ball over 30 times per game. Both teams are battle tested but I am giving my edge to the Ravens.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals

Everyone loves the Packers today and for good reason. The Cardinals have not been playing well, while the Packers are definitely peaking at the right time. Anquan Boldin will not play for the Cardinals today which makes a difficult task that much more difficult. Vegas has responded to the public’s love for GB by moving them from early dogs to game day favorites. Should the Cardinals lose, and I think they will, expect this to be Kurt Warner’s last game.

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs New York Jets

I agree with Rex Ryan that the Jets are very dangerous, a great defense makes any team dangerous. I also do not begrudge the Jets for the way in which they won their last two games to make the playoffs. Lastly, I don’t think Rex Ryan’s loud mouth has any negative impact on the Jets nor does it serve as additional motivation for the opposition. All that said, I like the Bengals today. From a defensive yardage standpoint, the Bengals defense actually gives up less yards than the Jets top-ranked defense. To me that means that Mark Sanchez needs to make some throws today and I don’t have the confidence that Sanchez will be able to do that, not on the road, not in the cold. I would not be surprised by a Jet win, but my money will be on the Bengals.

Philadelphia Eagles +4 @ Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles played the Cowboys last week without their Center, Nick Cole, and it showed. Cole is listed as probable today and that gives me confidence that you will not see the Eagles offense struggle has it did last week. The Cowboys late and post season struggles are well documented and spoken about at length. I do not know that there should be too much placed on that, but I also don’t know that they should be completely ignored either. These two teams despise each other and will really get after it today. I like the Eagles to show everyone why they have been the best NFC team over the past decade. As long as Andy Reid’s clock management isn’t needed today the Eagles will win this game.

Texas Longhorns +4 vs Alabama Crimson Tide

Let me tell you right now that the excess amount of time between games has a greater impact on the outcome of a game than any other single factor. Period. With the amount of time that both coaches and teams had to prepare for tonight’s game I don’t really care how many times Colt McCoy was sacked by Nebraska and I don’t care how great Greg McElroy was against Florida, and I don’t care who had the better schedule. What matters the most is what coach, and his staff, is best able to teach his team the adjustments they need to make for tonight’s game.

With that in mind, Nick Saban is 4-6 in bowl games and let’s not forget how incompetent his staff and his team looked last year against Utah. You can make the claim that Utah wanted to be there and Alabama not caring because they lost the SEC Championship game, but if you believe that then you can not declare Saban a great coach. Mack Brown meanwhile is 11-5 in bowl games and has won 5 straight. Based on those stats it appears to me that Mack Brown does a better job of getting his teams ready for bowl games than Nick Saban does.

Now, don’t get me wrong, players have to get out there and get after it and Alabama sure has a stable of studs that can beat anyone in the country. They have advantages at wide receiver that could cause the Longhorn secondary fits. They also have the Heisman Trophy winner in Mark Ingram. Sidebar: Heisman Trophy winners are 1-7 in Championship games. Alabama is no slouch, not in any capacity. But let’s see how the Crimson Tide players respond when the game is close. Will they act like their head coach, lose all dignity and have temper tantrums?

Colt McCoy, the Texas QB, has a football IQ above 190. Refer back to the opening paragraph about preparation and this becomes a huge benefit to Texas. Greg McElroy of Alabama had a great game against Florida, his best game of the year. If there is any one player that the long layoff is going to negatively impact, its McElroy.

I also saw what Alabama did to Florida in the SEC Championship game, but that wasn’t the Florida offense of old. And the familiarity of those two foes creates a much different situation than we will see tonight. And I did watch Nebraska almost ruin the Longhorns year and cause the Longhorns all sorts of trouble. Like I said before, it is not relevant to tonight’s game.

Lastly, the way Alabama has already been crowned by most everyone is cause for concern. It reminds me of the 1986 Fiesta Bowl when the Miami Hurricanes faced off with Penn St. in what was supposed to be an easy Miami win. In case you don’t recall what happened in that game, Penn St. won 14-10. The other parallel I will draw is that Joe Paterno is like Mack Brown in that they get their teams ready for bowl games better than any other coach out there.

When it was first determined that Alabama and Texas would be playing each other my gut reaction was that ‘Bama would cruise. Over all the time that has elapsed since those conference championship games, I no longer see it like that. I will take the Longhorns +4 as well as take the Moneyline of +160.