I am going to get started again with some progressive betting. I am taking my current Money Pool and splitting it into two funds of equal value. The one fund will be the New York Rangers for their last 23 games of the season, the first of which is tonight in Buffalo. I have set the Per Game Percentage (PGP) to 1.75% which will allow for a 4 game losing streak by the Rangers.
Should the Rangers go 11-12 over their last 23 games, something that in the eyes of most pundits and specifically Bobby Biscuit should be achieved at a minimum, there isn’t much room in there to lose 4 games in a row. Granted, they could drop 12 in a row to start, win the last 11 and reach the predicted 11-12, but that is highly unlikely.
In looking at the Rangers last 23 games there is a stretch of 5 games that I believe will make or break this fund. The first of the five is on March the 5th against the New York Islanders. This is a big game because of the Rangers 4 games after their dual with the Islanders. The Rangers must win on Long Island because they come home for a game against the East leading Boston Bruins, followed by three road games at Carolina, Nashville, and Philadelphia.
The 4 game stretch of Boston, at Carolina, at Nashville, and at Philadelphia is what causes me the most concern. I could have lowered the PGP to allow for a longer losing streak, but I believe that 4 consecutive losses is low enough in probability to warrant investing in the Rangers.
I had to make the following assumptions for each game. First was to identify the Rangers as the Favorite or the Underdog, and secondly to set a Money Line. Imade the Rangers an Underdog in all road games except when they play: Islanders, Predators, and Thrashers. I made the Rangers the favorite in all home games except when they play the Bruins.
Lastly, I set all Money Lines at 120. So when the Rangers are favored it would be -120, and when a dog it would be +120. I chose 120 as the Money Line as it seemed to be in the general range of past lines when the teams have met, and also because I do not view the value of being more specific worth the time.
23 games at a 1.75% PGP will yield a 40.25% return if the 23rd game is a win, and there i no losing streak in excess of 4 games.
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February 22nd, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Last night’s loss doesn’t sting because in my research I counted it as a loss. Tonight I counted as a win. This is the first of a home-and-home with the Leafs. Sweeps are tough, so one of the next two nights should be a win. I would like both, but would take tonight’s.
February 25th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Big game tonight in Toronto since the Rangers dropped their last outing where they were a -190 favorite. I was expecting them to be a dog tonight, but they are -135. A new coach, a struggling team playing against an inferior team on the backside of a home and home. I need the Rangers tonight or tomorrow’s game against Florida becomes a do or die.