Which Arizona is it going to be?
Arizona went 9-7 during the regular season and there wasn’t a single good win in those 9. Yes, they have won 3 playoff games, and I don’t mean to take anything away from the Cardinals, but beating Atlanta is something the Cards should have done. The win over Carolina was impressive but let’s not forget that Delhomme is a poor man’s Favre and he showed it that night throwing 6 INTs. The Cardinals winning may have been somewhat surprising, but the way the Panthers played was downright shocking. Lastly, tt could not have broken any better for Arizona when the Eagles beat the Giants and the NFC championship was held in Arizona. If the Cardinals had to come to the Meadowlands to play the NFC Championship game, they would not be in the Super Bowl. Again, I do not wish to take anything away from Arizona but they beat a team in the Eagles that was 9-6-1.

The Cards got smoked by New England, Minnesota, the Jets, the Giants, and the Eagles. 6 of their 9 regular season wins came against the 49ers, the Rams, and the Seahawks. The Cardinals are a hot team, not a great team.

Steeler RB Willie Parker ran for 146 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers in the divisional round. He also ran for 47 yards against the Ravens in the AFC Championship. Is the Cardinals defense more like the Ravens or the Chargers?

One proven advantage for an underdog is to not be taken seriously. I don’t think that exists with this game. Even last year, the Giants came in knowing that they could play with the Patriots based on the last game of the regular season. But that game was at the Meadowlands, and the Patriots took what everyone believed was the Giants best shot and the Pats still won. The Steelers will not and are not taking the Cardinals lightly. Mainly because its not what the Steelers do. Other reasons are that there is the personal aspect of former Steeler coaches being on the Cardinals sideline, and it was just last year that the Cardinals defeated the Steelers in the regular season. The element of surprise is not there for the Cardinals, and that is bad news for the Red Birds.

Here are a few more thoughts on today’s game:

The two weeks off is not good for a hot team, but it is for an offensive line.
Arizona has been hot in their previous 3 games. There is nothing about the Cardinals that 2 weeks of preparation will help. The Red Birds will not suddenly become more physical. The group that benefits most from extra time to prepare is the offensive line. The Steelers offensive line will reap the benefit of the extra week.

AZ’s coach is former Steeler assistant
I was quick to hop on a possible advantage the Cardinals may have since their head coach (Ken Wisenhunt) and offensive line coach (Russ Grimm) were Steeler assistants prior to going to Arizona. If there is any advantage here it is also with the Steelers since any tendency that Wisenhunt or Grimm know about the Steelers, Dick LeBeau (Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator) knows a bout Wisenhunt and Grimm. Also, there are no secrets to the Steelers. They do what they do, and they don’t really disguise it. Unless Wisenhunt knows some secret words to upset Ben, I don’t see the Cardinals having an advantage with their coaches.

Man to man coverage won’t hurt the Steelers
Everyone keeps saying that the Steelers are going to have to go man-to-man in the secondary in order to bring pressure, and this will leave them helpless to cover the Cardinals wide receivers. This thought process is flawed for a couple of reasons. For one, the Steelers have ways of bringing pressure that do not require a depletion of personnel in the secondary. Also, the Steelers should not be fearful of going man-to-man. Larry Fitzgerald is great, without a doubt; however, his ability to catch the ball down the field over defenders is what has been spectacular, and more times than not its over multiple defenders who have good coverage on him. Lastly, the Cardinals big plays have been the result of trick plays. I don’t see the Steeler defense falling for flea flickers and the like. My last point here is, if the Steelers do pick up man in the secondary, it lessens the success of trick plays since the DBs will be focused on their man, not the trickeration in the backfield.

Great offenses may get shut down in Super Bowls, but great defenses don’t
There are times were great offenses have been kept under wraps in the Super Bowl. It happened last year with the Giants keeping the Patriots well beneath their offensive norms. It happened when the Giants beat the Bills super-charged offense in 1991. Conversely, there is no precedent for a great defense being blown out.

This is as close to a home game for Pittsburgh as can be.
If this game were in Pittsburgh would the line still be 7? The only difference will be the weather. The Cardinals were 1-4 on the road against teams with a winning record. And the one win (Panthers in the playoffs) is more attributable to Delhomme looking like the poor man’s Brett Favre that he is, more than to anything the Cardinals actually did.

My Prediction: Steelers 34 – Cardinals 13

My Wagers: 66% of my funds are going on PIT -6.5; and 33% of my funds are going on PIT -20.5 (+450)