January 10, 2009

NFL Divisional Playoffs

by @ 8:03 am. Filed under NFL, Wagering

By GODZILLA

It’s 27 degrees and snowing here in NJ, so why not sit for a few minutes and cap some NFL playoff games. While looking at these teams, I try to identify strengths and weaknesses along with the actual matchups. I must say that I prefer teams with character and physicality, so I will comment on that as well as the straight statistics.
 
Baltimore @ Tennessee – 3, 4:30PM
 
This should be quite a physical match-up here, of two very similar teams. Similar in a sense that they rely on their great defenses and efficient offenses. Their offensive and defensive numbers are nearly identical, with Baltimore’s total yardage numbers looking a tad bit better on both sides of the ball. First thing that strikes me is the line is consistent with the betting public- staying at -3 points for the Titans, due to the 50/50 split in bettors’ choices.
 
When I first looked at this game, my first instinct was to pick the Titans. But now, after a bit more thought, I like the Ravens. I think the strongest unit for both teams is the Ravens defense. Despite their awful game against the NY Giants, they were solid all year long. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed (the U baby!!!) are playmakers and leaders who will make it their personal challenges to shut down the Titans offense. Then you have the Ravens offense, led by Joe Flacco. True he’s a rookie with a rookie head coach. But unless the Titans shut down the run, Flacco can feed off the McGahey and McClain runs with a little playaction and make some easy throws to Heap and Mason- two tremendous possession receivers. Of course, it doesn’t help that Kyle Van den Bosch and Albert Haynseworth are not 100% for this game, meaning that the Ravens should run it between the tackles over and over again. Also, the Titans’ offense has Kevin Mawae out, and he’s their center.
 
Other thoughts- both played tough schedules this year, but I’m a little more impressed with the Ravens, as they lost to tougher teams. The Titans got beat badly by the Jets and Texans. The Jets game proved that the Titans can lose at home and the Ravens have the type of team that can win on the road.
 
I predict the Baltimore ground game will take over, with Joe Flacco making some key throws and the Ravens defense forcing a couple of turnovers and creating good field position the entire game. Baltimore will out-muscle Tennessee (especially w/ injuries) and win a hard-fought contest in an old-fashioned football game.
 
3 points is too many here… The Titans may be overrated due to all the hype when they were undefeated. Also, if 3 points is for home field advantage, it doesn’t necessarily apply to the Ravens, as they beat Dallas and Miami in must-win games, away.
 
Ravens 17, Titans 10
 
 
Arizona @ Carolina -10, 8:15PM
 
I know that 10 points is a lot to give, especially in an NFL playoff game of this magnitude, but I really dislike the Cardinals. To me, they were overrated when I heard some asshole on ESPN claim that they were an elite team (before the slide). The Cardinals are a gutless, overrated bunch. Lok who they beat: Seattle twice, St. Louis twice, San Francisco twice. So, they’re 6-0 against crap teams! Their other two wins come against Miami and Buffalo- both at home. I am not impressed.
 
A key matchup here is the Panthers Run offense vs. the Cards’ run defense. I see the Cards are solid, allowing only 107 yards rushing p/g., but struggled against good running teams like the Giants, Vikings, New England, and the Redskins, but were able to shut down Michael Turner last weekend. I’ll take the odds that they won’t be able to shut down the Panthers’ dual threat.
 
Now… Kurt Warner… Great QB. Possibly Hall of Fame material… I like this guy and am glad he had a big year. However… (and I actually did this research, didn’t read this anywhere) his QB Rating at home is 105.5, but only 88.8 on the road. He also got sacked 6 more times on the road than at home.
And the Cards’ pathetic rushing offense cannot make up for any slack if Warner doesn’t have a monster game.
 
The Cards are a sucky team on the road, but even worse when they travel to the East Coast, being 0-5 this year. They also score less points but allow more points on the road. Carolina, on the other hand is a GREAT home team, being undefeated at home. As a matter of fact, they score 29 points and give up 13 at home, while the Cards score 23 and give up 31.
 
But DAMN, 10 points??? Yeah, why not. The Cards have no heart…
 
Cardinals 14, Panthers 27

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