By GODZILLA

Sugar Bowl, Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, LA – 8PM
Utah vs. Alabama -9

How appropriate, Sweet Home Alabama playing in the Sugar bowl! As soon as I saw this game on the board, I thought the opening line would be close to -10, and right I was, because it opened at -11. Now, it’s at -9. I have a big problem with this, because most of the action is on Alabama, yet the line actually went down, as if most bettors are on Utah, which is not the case. To me, at least, this draws a red flag when handicapping this game. That said, I will continue with my analysis of the matchup.

Utah, although undefeated, was never considered an “elite” team. This is due to the fact that they don’t play in a BCS conference, though they have a history of playing like a BCS team. Their biggest wins are respectable (TCU, BYU, Oregon State), but I wouldn’t consider them to be Juggernauts just yet. Their toughest opponent, TCU, gave them hell, even if Andy Dalton had a bad game for TCU- uncharacteristically throwing 2 INT’s and completing less than 50% of his passes. TCU had more first downs, 150+ more total yards, and 4.9 yards per carry!!! Isn’t that some shit??? This was also AT Utah. The rest of their schedule was “cupcake city” as Dick Vitale would put it.

The level of competition that Alabama faced this year is a couple of light years ahead. They played the best teams in the SEC, their only loss being to a red hot UF team. The Tide showed their character throughout the season by blowing out teams like Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia, Auburn- and those are very tough teams, teams that I doubt Utah could compete with. THese teams are incredibly talented, though they are young and inconsistent. Alabama still put them away, and did so early in the ball game, relying on their defense to strike the will of the teams and force them into submission. Going undefeated shows resiliency and mental toughness, but to me, Alabama is a bit more tested, as they beat Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee AWAY, and AT NIGHT in incredibly hostile environments. Meanwhile, Utah played all their tough games (BYU, TCU, OSU) at the comfort of their home stadium.

The numbers Utah put up are just awesome. On offense, they are definitely well-balanced, scoring 37ppg, averaging 236 passing ypg and 136 rushing ypg. But feasting on weak prey, such as Utah State and Weber State should yield even greater results. Their offense is definitely not athletic and explosive like some of the other Top 25 teams, but they have guts, they make few bad plays, and they simply get it done in the clutch. The Utes’ defense is pretty solid, allowing 17ppg, 191pass ypg, 107 rush ypg. Pretty decent, but not jaw-dropping numbers. Their defense isn’t as quick, physical, or downright nasty as say USC, Penn State, Ohio State, or TCU’s. But they get the job done.

Alabama, after all these years, is still very much a running team. Their running game sets up Parker Wilson to start picking apart defenses and fall into a balanced attack. Their not very potent, nor are they as productive as Oklahoma, UF, or TT, but they know how to manage the clock and gain the tough yards when it counts. Alabama’s defense is what’s most impressive. They’re 2nd to USC’s defense, and I think USC’s defense is one of the best EVER. They have a ton of aggression and pride on that defense, applying pressure, tackling the right way, covering well, and just making plays.

Why Alabama will win: Physicality, competitiveness, athleticism, coaching experience

Why Utah will win: They have upset history, and the reverse line movement phenomenon

Conclusion: I see Alabama’s offensive and defensive lines controlling this game- pushing back their opponents at the line of scrimmage, and using their athleticism at the skill and sub-skill positions to make bigger plays. Utah is a smaller, slower team that’s not as tested… Alabama’s missing their best O lineman, but they had a chance to prepare the substituting talent to fill the void, and these SEC teams are always 2-3 deep in every position anyway. I see Alabama scoring 2-3 touchdowns on offense, perhaps a pick 6 or fumble return for a TD… and Utah struggling to consistently gain yards against this rabid defense. Remember: The reverse line movement scares the crap out of me. It happened to Oklahoma State, just happened to texas Tech, and this could be the Vegas Trifecta.

Alabama is like TCU on steroids, and Utah shouldn’t have beaten TCU in the first place. The Superdome will have 80% of the fans on the TIDE and their superior speed will shine of the turf.

But, all things being equal… Alabama linemen will blow the Utes off the ball, run by defenders with speed and athleticism, and show poise down the stretch. Look for the Defense to choke the Utes Offense, while the Bama Offense slowly chips away and wears down the smaller Utah defense…

Score: Utah 13, Alabama 27

Roll TIDE, roll!!!

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