I played a lot of stuff today aside from the customary 15-team Money Line and Point Spread parlays. There are 11 teams that are playing to get into the playoffs today. Teams like the Falcons and Panthers are playing for postseason positioning, but they are in the playoffs no matter the outcome of their respective games. Other teams like the Eagles, need to win in order to stay alive but need other things to happen. Then you have teams like the Cowboys who only have to concern themselves with themselves.

So, there are 11 teams and 6 of them play each other. (DAL @ PHI, MIA @ NYJ, DEN @ SD) that means you know that there will be 3 teams that will lose today. If 68% of teams that play with something to lose, end up losing, then you can anticipate 68% of the 11 teams that meet the criteria to lose. That means there will be 7.5 teams out of the 11 that will lose today. We have already identified three of the possible teams, and eliminated 6 teams from the equation. So out of the 5 remaining teams, there is a high probability 3-4 of those teams will lose. It is highly probable because it plays to the mean. Now this does not mean anything is guaranteed. Averages are made up of many points along the spectrum of possibilities, some very far from the average in either direction. Today could be closer to 0% than it is 68%, or it could be closer to 100%. The point is to play to the average, and over time you will be near that average. When the average being played to is above 55%, all the better.

Here are the 11 teams that meet the criteria of needing to win today:
Cowboys, Eagles, Dolphins, Jets, Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bears, Ravens.
The first 6 teams are removed from the equation because we know that one of them will lose. (I know, unlike Donovan McNabb, that a tie is possible. Bust since we already had that highly improbable event occur this year, it is that much more unlikely to occur today). Those 6 teams will produce 3 losers. We are estimating a total of 6-7 losers out of the pool of 11 teams. Now the game is turned into either identifying which of those teams will lose, OR bet the Money Lines against each of those teams and when the average is produced you will have selected 3-4 Money Line winners. Being that many of the teams you will wager on are underdogs, you can perform beneath the average and still earn money today. If only one team wins, and let’s say its the Raiders at +450, then you are almost at even when only one of those games hit.

Here are all of today’s wagers:

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 4.5%
Oakland Raiders +450

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 2.4%
New York Giants +240

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win .66%
Houston Texans -150

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 4%
Jacksonville Jaguars +400

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 2.3%
Buffalo Bills +225

4 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 5.9%
Detroit Lions +11, Houston Texans -3, Jacksonville Jaguars +10, Indianapolis Colts +3

4 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 5.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -600, Houston Texans -150, Atlanta Falcons -1000, Indianapolis Colts +125, Pittsburgh Steelers -600, Arizona Cardinals -290, San Francisco 49ers -145

15 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 729%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -600, Green Bay Packers -600, Philadelphia Eagles -125, New York Giants +240, Houston Texans -150, New Orleans Saints +105, Atlanta Falcons -1000, Kansas City Chiefs +120, Baltimore Ravens -500, Indianapolis Colts +125, Pittsburgh Steelers -600, Miami Dolphins +115, New England Patriots -265, Arizona Cardinals -290, San Francisco 49ers -145

15 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 771%
Oakland Raiders +11, Detroit Lions +11, Philadelphia Eagles -1½, New York Giants +6½, Houston Texans -3, New Orleans Saints +1½, Atlanta Falcons -14, Kansas City Chiefs +2½, Jacksonville Jaguars +10½, Indianapolis Colts +3, Pittsburgh Steelers -11½, Miami Dolphins +2½, New England Patriots -5½, Arizona Cardinals -6½, San Francisco 49ers -3