Today’s Wagers Made Using the Recognition Heuristic or something that attempts to apply this most basic of heuristics. What dooms this experiment is that I am not ignorant enough. When you stop laughing at me I will explain what I mean. The Recognition Heuristic says that while complete knowledge is better than zero knowledge when making a decision; neither is as beneficial as partial knowledge.

I applied the Recognition Heuristic to this week’s wagers at the Money Line level. To use this heuristic for with Spreads you first must answer the question ‘Who will win?’ before you can answer the question ‘Will the team I have decided will win cover the spread?’. With Spreads, the ultimate decision is not about the winner of the game. So this week I made it about the winner of the game.

Now, there isn’t a lot of value in betting Money Lines in football. Granted, there are the instances of huge dogs to winning,, but there is a reason the money line is so big, it is massively unlikely. Conversely, wagering on a huge favorite may ‘guarantee’ you a win, but you must risk so much for so littl in return. However, when parlayed you can create some bang for your buck. Answer this question. Do you think you could pick 50% of the winning NFL teams each week? I honestly don’t know the answer to that question. I do remember playing office pools where only winners were picked, and I remember routinely winning 10-14 games. Perhaps my memory favors me too much, so I am not relying on memory, instead I will begin to chart. Charting is awareness my friends, and awareness is the key to it all.

My NFL wagers this week are:
- 7-Team Parlay risking .5% of my Original Investment (OI) to win 10.17% of my OI. All money lines.

- 14-Team Parlay risking .5% of my Original Investment (OI) to win 452.72% of my OI. All point spreads.

- 14-Team Parlay risking .5% of my Original Investment (OI) to win 295.75% of my OI. All money lines.