
There are changes happening today and some that are happening tomorrow. Today the DET stock is being closed. Their lack of pitching and upcoming schedule make them not very attractive. In its place an anti-Nationals stock is being opened. The plan at this point in time is to run this stock through 9/18/08. This of course is subject to change.
Beginning tomorrow the NYM stock will be closed as the Mets enter a tough part of their schedule and to be honest, the Mets scare me. Also, with as good as the NL East is, the Mets can play just above .500 ball and they will still be in the hunt. So don’t take the closing of the stock as an indictment of the Mets, it is merely a statement that I believe there is better value out there.
The value I see beginning tomorrow is the Yankees. With the addition of the Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte the Yankees made themselves better. Their pitching staff has also seemed to right the ship. All around they are playing with confidence and should they add Jarod Washburn then they will have done all the things they can to get ready for a run. The current plan with the NYY stock is to open it tomorrow and run it through 8/24/08.
In summary, DET is closed effective immediately. Today the plays will by NYM, COL, MIL and LAD (WAS opponent). The NYM stock will close after today and tomorrow will open the NYY stock. The plan with MIL is to run it through 8/31/08 and with COL to run it through 9/7/08. Additionally, LAA is possible to open on 8/12/08.
Despite my earlier proclamation of sticking with the Cubs through the Marlins series, I am closing the Cubs today prior to their game. I still believe the Cubs will make the playoffs, and they very well may get hot again. However, they have some key things working against them. One is that they don’t have a closer, as Kerry Wood was placed on the DL a few days ago. Additionally, the Cubs are and will continue to be big favorites in most of their games thus making each win not very profitable and each loss very costly. My thinking when opening this fund was that the Cubs would be so many games over .500 that the large MLs wouldn’t matter.
With the remaining money in the Cubs stock, I am opening a Colorado Rockies stock beginning today. The Rockies are defending NL Champs yet are 12 games under .500. Last year it was a second half run that propelled the Rockies into the playoffs and they are poised to make a similar run this year. They play in the weakest division in baseball and they are rarely large favorites. Additionally, many of their key players are having years well below their career averages. Things even out in baseball so it is expected that the dudes that are struggling will get it turned around in the second half.
All 4 stocks don’t play until this evening, so come back to the site then to see how many Money Bags are on each stock.
The Cubs trail 2-1 to the D’backs as I write this and my plan for them is to ride them tomorrow and then for the 4 home games they have against the Marlins. I will then pause the Cubs for their 4 games in Milwaukee; restarting them for their 9 game homestand against the Pirates, Astros and Cardinals. At that time I will evaluate the scenario before deciding what to do for the Cubs 6 road games in Atlanta and then Florida. The Cubs then have 6 home games against the Reds and Nationals. That decision can wait.
To say the Cubs bats have been disappointing over the past two games is an understatement. The team that led MLB in offensive productions has mustered just 2 runs in their 2 games since the break, and yesterday’s run was the work of the pitcher Carlos Zambrano hitting a HR. Let’s not panic. The Cubs are the best team in the NL, there really isn’t a question about that. Houston is somewhat hot, and has proven to be a second half team the past couple of years. It is important to remember why the Cubs are in the portfolio. Their record over the second half will be enough games over .500 that they will earn money. For now, until the bats warm up, I am going to lay off aggressive plays and be in position to strike once the Cubs get it going.
The Mets and Tigers are in the same boat. They were hot and may face a little cool down time. Overall, these teams will be in their respective pennant races and there are no plans to inactivate these stocks.
The Brewers are performing to expectation, as they are slightly ahead of the Anticipated Bank after two games. A rare occurrence today with the Brewers, clearly a better team than the Giants, being an underdog. Granted it is because the Giants ace, Tim Lincecum, is throwing; but with the Brewers stock performing well this will be an aggressive play today.
To view the key to what the Money Bags represent. CLICK HERE
Off to a nice start of the second half with the Tigers and Mets getting wins last night. Tonight there is a full slate of action with all 4 active funds in play. After the A’s traded yet another pitcher I dropped them from the portfolio. That makes two pitchers in the past few weeks and GM Billy Beane commented that he is thinking about being a good team for years to come, not just this year. That doesn’t instill confidence.
The Tigers and Mets are being played due to my belief that each team will be at least 12 games over .500 over the remainder of the year. The Cubs are the best team in the NL and have not lost more than 4 games in a row in the first half. The Brewers adding CC Sabathia gives them two aces and a low likelihood of a long losing streak. Additionally, the Brewers were 2 games from the playoffs last year and will challenge for at least a Wild Card spot.
All these stocks will remain open for the foreseeable future
I cant keep it in anymore, I have to scream this out or I am going to hurt somebody, Brett Favre is a fucking asshole! Fuck him. Do us all a favor Brett and go kill yourself.
There I said it. Do I feel better? A little. But not 100%. If you aren’t familiar with the situation, let me give you a quick recap. Brett Favre, Green Bay Packer QB for the previous 16 years retired in March of this year. Brett had an awesome career. He came out of nowhere; playing QB at Southern Miss and being drafted by the Falcons he was traded to the Packers for a case of beer and ended up restoring pride and dignity to a storied franchise. Brett was a hero to many, and will always be an NFL legend. He won a Super Bowl, lost a Super Bowl and made many, many amazing plays, along with some really dumb ones. But that was part of Brett’s charm. He was a gunslinger, a gambler, a man from the deep south who wore his heart on his sleeve and embodied a spirit of resilience, energy and excitement.
I have never been a Brett Favre fan, personally thinking he has always been more lore than a solid QB. For every great play he made, he made two stupid plays. For every needle he threaded he also threw an interception that made his own fans scratch their heads. But one thing was always true, Brett played the game of football the way we all wish every player played it; with passion, with guile, and with a determination that was always admirable.
Brett overcame an addiction to painkiller (I have more to say on that topic in a moment) to admirably lead his team. His teammates have never said a bad word against him; coaches loved having him on their rosters.
But now back to March of this year. After a few years of talking about retirement and leaving the Packers in a position of having to wait and see what Brett was going to do well into each summer, Brett finally decided he had enough. The game had finally taken its toll on Brett; it was too much like work now and not enough of a game which he loved. His body now spoke louder than his mind when it came to whether or not the abuse was all worth it. Brett cried at his retirement speech and the world applauded him, cried with him and the gunslingin’ cowboy rode off into the sunset.
That brings us to the present. Brett began text messaging people in the Packers front office, hinting at a possible comeback. No one knew what to say. A few years back the Packers had drafted Aaron Rodgers out of Cal to be their QB once Brett hung it up. Rodgers was highly touted and in the moments he had to show his stuff he showed that his accolades were well deserved. The Packers were ready to move fwd with their new young, yet experienced QB. They had a team that went to the NFC Championship last year (a game that Brett lost with a horrible throw in OT) and were ready to get to the Super Bowl this year. The media then reports that GM Ted Thompson tells Brett they will talk when Thompson gets back from vacation. Brett then tells the Packers he wants an unconditional release so that he may pursue opportunities with other teams. You see, Brett still had 3 years on his contract so if he were to file for reinstatement, he would belong to the Packers and would either need to play for them, or they would need to trade him. The Packers declined Brett’s request and said that if he wants to come back they would welcome him to he the backup to Aaron Rodgers. This is where Brett begins to show his true asshole colors. He said he doesn’t feel welcomed by the Packers, he may want to play again and wants the Packers to tell him he can come be their QB again. But he doesn’t want to commit to coming back until the Packers commit to making him their starting QB. This is after the Packers have run mini-camp and the team is getting ready for pre-season camp to start. Brett just wants the reins handed back to him and doesn’t really care who else is affected by it. Then last night I see that his agent made the comment that Brett doesn’t need to file for reinstatement until Week 6 of the NFL season so it is in the hands of the Packers as to what to do next.
No, no it isn’t you asshole! If you want to pay football again then file for reinstatement and then the Packers can decide what to do, but understand that they have already said that Aaron Rodgers is the QB going into this season. In the meantime, Brett goes on Fox News and speaks to Greta, sends text messages to anyone that will listen, and had tried to make the Packers out to be villains.
This whole situation will eventually come to an end, but it won’t be soon enough.
In regards to Brett’s previously mentioned pain killer addiction. The only thing that is possible, that I find acceptable, is that perhaps Brett is bored and is finding himself drawn more to painkiller and other recreational drugs and realizes he needs the structure of football and something to prepare for to keep himself sane. If that is the case, and it has not been said anywhere but here, but if that is the case than I hope Brett finds the help he needs but please stay away from the rest of us Asshole!
There has been no action since July 9th as I am evaluating which teams to play in the second half. I believe that we got all we are gonna get out of Tampa. If you believe that Tampa is in it until the end, then you also have to believe that they will push to win 95 games. I believe 95 games are necessary to win the AL East. If Tampa does win 95 games, that puts them at 40-29 from here on out. Do you believe that the team that was the worst in MLB last year is going to keep pace with the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox as well as the underachieving New York Yankees? I am not sure. Understand that Baltimore is also improved and the Blue Jays also underperformed in the first half. That makes the Rays remaining schedule fairly difficult.
I do like the Brewers, Mets, Tigers, and A’s in the second half and am also considering the Blue Jays and Twins. The key is to identify who you think will finish over .500 and to also identify those teams Value Index. The higher the Value Index the lower the risk. We will talk more about this later.
I closed the Oakland A’s fund with their trade of Dan Haren to the Cubs. This is due to lack of confidence in the A’s ability to withstand a losing streak. This fund could open in the future. Here is how the fund closed: OAK +15.05%
Yesterday began the Milwaukee Brewer fund. I believe the Brewers will win the majority of their games from here on out as well as having a low likelihood of a losing streak over 5 with the addition of CC Sabathia to a staff that already has Ben Sheets. The Brewers only missed winning the NL Central by 2 games last year. They are legit.
There are a few truly great sports days and most of them you can see coming. Granted many more disappoint but one of the main ingredients of a great sports day is that there are many scheduled events of at least some local importance. New Years Day used to be like that before they diluted the bowl games over a two week period. But how many New Years Days do you recall for ALL the action that day, not just your favorite team getting a win? Not many. An example of a great sports day was June 5, 1999 when the NY Knicks were playing the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Yankees and Mets were playing an interleague game (this was only the 3rd year of interleague so it was still a big deal) and Charismatic was running in the Belmont Stakes for a chance at a Triple Crown. This day had all the makings of a great sports day if for no other reason than there was all day sports, a major ingredient in being a great sports day, get it? June 5, 1999 ended up being great because the action was also great. The Knicks and Pacers played a game that came down to the final 5 seconds, and LJ hit his famous 4-pt shot; the Yankees and Mets played an entertaining 6-3 NYY win and Lemon Drop Kid upset Charismatic. This was a great day.
Additionally, there are a few games that you wish would never end because of the continued drama and unbelievable action. Three instances that come to my mind:
Add yesterday to both of the lists, and it all happened with only one event
Not all the ingredients were in place, but many were. Two fierce rivals, two stellar athletes, amazing play after amazing play, a comeback, an upstart, the dominant one and what turned a special event into a special day, some rain. You add all those ingredients and you get not only a great tennis match on one of the grandest of stages but for those of us watching on the east coast we got drama from 9 am until 4pm, an all-day event.
I went to the store and it was still on, I did some chores and it is was still on. Only a little would I feel bad about wishing players that had endured so much to endure a little more just for my pleasure. Yesterday I wanted the match to go on. I thought let Federer and Nadal play until neither could grip a racket, play until they broke all their rackets, just keep playing.
July 6, 2008 will go down as a special day in sports.
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