All tournament long the strength of a team’s schedule and the strength/makeup of their respective conferences have been excellent differentiators in games between seemingly equal teams, or games that you may have been torn over. Yesterday that theme held true.

Today’s most exciting matchup is Texas vs. Memphis and the most intriguing is Davidson vs. Kansas. Lets start with the exciting and end with the intriguing.

In comparing Texas and Memphis, Texas has proven they can beat the powerhouse teams, while Memphis has not even had the opportunity to prove that. Memphis meanwhile has some quality wins, but none against anyone that is in the class of UT’s good wins. Here is a snapshot of each team’s quality wins, which I am determining as regular season opponents that made the tournament or a tournament win that should be considered a quality win. *Note: I am not including Austin Peay on either team’s slate even thought Memphis beat them in the regular season and Texas beat them in the First Round of the tournament.

Texas

1. Kansas
2. UCLA
3. Tennessee
4. Stanford
5. Miami (FL)
6. Texas A&M
7. Kansas St.
8. Baylor
9. Oklahoma
10. St. Mary’s
11. Oral Roberts

Memphis

1. Mississippi St.
2. Michigan St.
3. Gonzaga
4. Georgetown
5. Arizona
6. UConn
7. Siena
8. Arizona
9. USC

Now, Texas does have some losses that must be considered. The theme is that Texas seems to struggle on the road, note that two of their losses were redeemed when they played those teams at home. And not to make excuses for the Longhorns, please keep in mind that I loathe the state of Texas, but they shot poorly against Wisconsin and lost by 1. The losses of concern are:

1. @ Texas Tech. UT beat them by 27 a few weeks earlier, either a let down or further proof that UT struggles on the road.
2. @ Texas A&M. UT then beat them by 27 a few weeks later at home.
3. @ Missouri
4. Wisconsin
5. @Michigan St.

The argument can certainly be made that neither losing to Wisconsin or Michigan St. is a bad loss but we must consider all losses. This is much easier to do with Memphis, since their lone loss is to Tennessee, a common opponent. The other common opponent is Michigan St. which Memphis beat and to whom Texas lost.

All that being said, an argument can be made for either team. I am siding with Texas since I believe that a close game does not benefit Memphis as their foul shooting will be front and center. In addition, I am being swayed by Texas’ strength of schedule and wins over Kansas and UCLA. I can certainly envision Memphis winning this game, but with this game being as close as it is, and with there being good value with Texas (+3.5 and +150), I am further emboldened to go ‘Horns. One other side note, for those that like to make decisions based on information that is irrelevant to the game itself, if Memphis and Kansas win then it will be the first time that all #1 seeds have made the Final Four. If you believe that the trend will continue then ask yourself who is more likely to lose, Kansas or Memphis?

Davidson is a feel good story and they have seemingly come out of nowhere. Don’t get lulled into a sense of complacency with this team however. They have won 25 consecutive games and also have played a very strong schedule. Their most notable wins have come in their last two, Georgetown and Wisconsin, and that is why Kansas should win this game.

I do not wish to take anything away from Davidson, but they have beaten flawed teams even if they were also considered good teams. The flaws that existed with Georgetown and Wisconsin do not exist with Kansas. Kansas will run, and run and Davidson will not be able to keep pace no matter how well Stephen Curry shoots the ball. Another sign of concern for would-be Davidson gamblers is the 9.5 line which indicates that Vegas does not see Cinderella having much of a shot. Now, if you are one that believes Davidson has a legit chance of winning the game, then you will drool over the +425 Money Line. I am not one of those people. I am more compelled to take Kansas and give the 9.5 or tkae Kansas with their Money Line of -550 since I feel it is a sure thing. Remember, if you think you have a sure thing in a heavy favorite and are looking for some value, don’t be afraid to wrap up your favorite with another game or two into a 2 or 3 team parlay.