As we get down to the nitty-gritty the opportunity to win some cash becomes a little tricky, or so it may seem. The key to this time of year is to not forget what you already know. This can be difficult to do. Especially with all the talk by the experts and the amateurs that get involved with the NCAA Tournament. We can be too easily swayed away from the principles that we must adhere to if we are going to sustain success. Hopefully, you have been keeping a journal or some sort of record on what you have seen throughout the year and especially within the past few weeks. Your journal is your window into what you were thinking, the things you believe in, and how those prognostications turned out. It is your report card of yourself and it is an extremely useful tool when it comes to making your decisions.

Let’s take a look at the things I referenced in my journal that brought me success last night.

1. The Big 10 is weak. This really reared its head last night. Wisconsin was outclassed but a Davidson team that was quicker, more agile and downright better. Wisconsin meanwhile wasn’t able to bring their trademark mid-western bully style of play and they looked like behemoths completely out of their elements. Perhaps its is just Brian Butch’s Aryan looks, but Wisconsin quickly took on the persona of Drago. It also didn’t hurt that Davidson has played just as many top-teams this year as did Wisconsin, and were competitive in them all. In addition, Michigan St. wasn’t even close against Memphis. This further highlights how the Big 10 can not handle athletic teams. They upset Pitt because Pitt plays a similar style, and people were over-excited about calling the Spartans win against Pitt an upset. It was an upset only because of Pitt winning the Big East Tournament. Pitt was not a great team all year.
2. The Pac 10 is top heavy and Stanford can’t sustain. UCLA is a very good team, and that is where the Pac 10 stops. Yes, Stanford won some games and they have two 7-footers that are tough to stop. But when you look at the Cardinal this year, they always had a loss when they shouldn’t have. They always played a game or two that was closer than it should’ve been.
3. Who is the Home Team? Both Texas and North Carolina are playing home games. To say this isn’t an advantage is foolish.

For tonight, get out your journals, go with what you know and stick to it. Something to consider for this evenings two matchups

1. The Big East is deep but not dominant. Everyone loves Louisville right now, and they are playing well. However, let us not forget that they are the last Big East team standing and while the tournament was a failure for the Big East, it also wasn’t a rousing success. The Cardinal turned the ball over 20 times against Tennessee, which proves that Tennessee was an overrated team. Could Louisville win tonight? Sure. But don’t count on it. I don’t see much value here, except to parlay UNC’s Money Line with something else that piques your interest.
2. Xavier has some bad losses this year. The Musketeers are a bigger long shot than people think. Look closely at their tournament wins, thats all I am saying.

From a bettor’s perspective, let me first say that unless the line is under 3 points, I am scared to death of betting the point spread. If you like the favorite it is too easy for cheap baskets to be scored at the end of the game and blow your win. Conversely, if you like the dog and the point-spread is 3 or under the value lies in taking them to win the game outright and play the Money Line. The only time I will play a favorite with the point-spread is if I believe the favorite will win going away. Take Kansas for example last night. They were 12 point favorites over Villanova and at the end they did cover the spread. However, KU was leading the entire game by 18-20 points and Villanova was never in the game. Then suddenly, with just over a minute to go, Villanova pulls within 12 points. At no point did it feel like Villanova was going to come close to winning the game, but the bet now came down to what amounts to bullshit. Is Villanova going to keep fouling? Will Kansas make their foul shots? Will Villanova hit some desperate 3s? All of this amounts to undue stress and uncertainty in what should’ve been a walk in the park for those betting Kansas. My point here is, if you like the favorite so much and the line is high (how high is high up for argument) than look to the Money Line and a possible parlay to increase your return. All of this adds up to basketball being more of a crap-shoot and why football is the game of kings.