All tournament long the strength of a team’s schedule and the strength/makeup of their respective conferences have been excellent differentiators in games between seemingly equal teams, or games that you may have been torn over. Yesterday that theme held true.
Today’s most exciting matchup is Texas vs. Memphis and the most intriguing is Davidson vs. Kansas. Lets start with the exciting and end with the intriguing.
In comparing Texas and Memphis, Texas has proven they can beat the powerhouse teams, while Memphis has not even had the opportunity to prove that. Memphis meanwhile has some quality wins, but none against anyone that is in the class of UT’s good wins. Here is a snapshot of each team’s quality wins, which I am determining as regular season opponents that made the tournament or a tournament win that should be considered a quality win. *Note: I am not including Austin Peay on either team’s slate even thought Memphis beat them in the regular season and Texas beat them in the First Round of the tournament.
Texas
Memphis
Now, Texas does have some losses that must be considered. The theme is that Texas seems to struggle on the road, note that two of their losses were redeemed when they played those teams at home. And not to make excuses for the Longhorns, please keep in mind that I loathe the state of Texas, but they shot poorly against Wisconsin and lost by 1. The losses of concern are:
The argument can certainly be made that neither losing to Wisconsin or Michigan St. is a bad loss but we must consider all losses. This is much easier to do with Memphis, since their lone loss is to Tennessee, a common opponent. The other common opponent is Michigan St. which Memphis beat and to whom Texas lost.
All that being said, an argument can be made for either team. I am siding with Texas since I believe that a close game does not benefit Memphis as their foul shooting will be front and center. In addition, I am being swayed by Texas’ strength of schedule and wins over Kansas and UCLA. I can certainly envision Memphis winning this game, but with this game being as close as it is, and with there being good value with Texas (+3.5 and +150), I am further emboldened to go ‘Horns. One other side note, for those that like to make decisions based on information that is irrelevant to the game itself, if Memphis and Kansas win then it will be the first time that all #1 seeds have made the Final Four. If you believe that the trend will continue then ask yourself who is more likely to lose, Kansas or Memphis?
Davidson is a feel good story and they have seemingly come out of nowhere. Don’t get lulled into a sense of complacency with this team however. They have won 25 consecutive games and also have played a very strong schedule. Their most notable wins have come in their last two, Georgetown and Wisconsin, and that is why Kansas should win this game.
I do not wish to take anything away from Davidson, but they have beaten flawed teams even if they were also considered good teams. The flaws that existed with Georgetown and Wisconsin do not exist with Kansas. Kansas will run, and run and Davidson will not be able to keep pace no matter how well Stephen Curry shoots the ball. Another sign of concern for would-be Davidson gamblers is the 9.5 line which indicates that Vegas does not see Cinderella having much of a shot. Now, if you are one that believes Davidson has a legit chance of winning the game, then you will drool over the +425 Money Line. I am not one of those people. I am more compelled to take Kansas and give the 9.5 or tkae Kansas with their Money Line of -550 since I feel it is a sure thing. Remember, if you think you have a sure thing in a heavy favorite and are looking for some value, don’t be afraid to wrap up your favorite with another game or two into a 2 or 3 team parlay.
As we get down to the nitty-gritty the opportunity to win some cash becomes a little tricky, or so it may seem. The key to this time of year is to not forget what you already know. This can be difficult to do. Especially with all the talk by the experts and the amateurs that get involved with the NCAA Tournament. We can be too easily swayed away from the principles that we must adhere to if we are going to sustain success. Hopefully, you have been keeping a journal or some sort of record on what you have seen throughout the year and especially within the past few weeks. Your journal is your window into what you were thinking, the things you believe in, and how those prognostications turned out. It is your report card of yourself and it is an extremely useful tool when it comes to making your decisions.
Let’s take a look at the things I referenced in my journal that brought me success last night.
For tonight, get out your journals, go with what you know and stick to it. Something to consider for this evenings two matchups
From a bettor’s perspective, let me first say that unless the line is under 3 points, I am scared to death of betting the point spread. If you like the favorite it is too easy for cheap baskets to be scored at the end of the game and blow your win. Conversely, if you like the dog and the point-spread is 3 or under the value lies in taking them to win the game outright and play the Money Line. The only time I will play a favorite with the point-spread is if I believe the favorite will win going away. Take Kansas for example last night. They were 12 point favorites over Villanova and at the end they did cover the spread. However, KU was leading the entire game by 18-20 points and Villanova was never in the game. Then suddenly, with just over a minute to go, Villanova pulls within 12 points. At no point did it feel like Villanova was going to come close to winning the game, but the bet now came down to what amounts to bullshit. Is Villanova going to keep fouling? Will Kansas make their foul shots? Will Villanova hit some desperate 3s? All of this amounts to undue stress and uncertainty in what should’ve been a walk in the park for those betting Kansas. My point here is, if you like the favorite so much and the line is high (how high is high up for argument) than look to the Money Line and a possible parlay to increase your return. All of this adds up to basketball being more of a crap-shoot and why football is the game of kings.
We are through Round 1, and whatever drama was lacking on Day 1 was more than made up for on Day 2. Two #4 seeds have been expelled, and neither are that much of a surprise. Vanderbilt lost to a very good Siena team in a game that was previewed by all the experts to go exactly as it turned out. Siena took it to Vandy from the get-go and showed the nation that just because Siena doesn’t play in a high-powered conference, it doesn’t mean they can’t play with the high-powered teams. UConn was the other #4 seed to fall, and while it was certainly an upset, it was an upset more in name than in reality. Much like Duke, this UConn team is not as good as the teams that have given the Huskies their well deserved reputation. On top of that, UConn did not finish the year strong and then lost their point guard to injury early in yesterday’s game. That being said, hats off to San Diego for salvaging a bit of pride for the West Coast Conference which took some shots for getting 3 teams in the tournament. (The other two were Gonzaga and St. Mary’s . . . both lost).
Going through the conferences, I believed and spoke loudly to all that would listen, about the strength of the Big East. They backed it up by going 7-1 in the First Round with UConn being the lone loser. Villanova was the lone Big East team to ‘upset’ their opponent, being a 12 seed and defeating 5th seeded Clemson. This reinforces what Tmac by the Bay spoke about on the show the other night, where the ACC is a top heavy conference and the Big East is strong throughout. Add Duke’s near loss to Belmont into the mix and you can make the argument that the ACC is a one-team conference this year, that one team being North Carolina. The same can be said for the Pac-10 where USC’s loss the other night leaves the Pac-10 in a position of showing their true colors of being a one-team conference, UCLA.
The Big East will really be able to claim conference supremacy with a good showing today by Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Marquette and West Virginia. Notre Dame and Marquette square off against two good Pac-10 teams, Washington St. and Stanford respectively. While Pitt plays Michigan St. and West Virginia faces Duke. Pitt is the only Big East team going today that is the higher-seeded team. From a betting perspective, this presents us bettors with tremendous value. I like both Notre Dame and West Virginia to win their games. Notre Dame is +2.5 and +125 and West Virginia is +4 and +160. I am a parlay freak, so expect me to double those two team together.
Marquette meanwhile will have their hands full with Stanford in a game that presents opposing styles of play and matchup problems for both. Marquette is +3 and +135. I am undecided on this game from a betting perspective, but all my rooting interests are behind the team from Milwaukee. Pitt finds themselves -2 and -140, not a bad bet but with Michigan State’s experience and senior leadership, certainly not a lock for the Panthers.
Speaking of the Big 10, Indiana showed their true colors last night in losing by 14 to Arkansas. Wisconsin, Michigan St. and Purdue remain from the Big 10. Wisconsin faces Kansas St. in a game of two very different teams. KSU is led by a superstar Freshman while the Badgers are the epitome of a team. Wisconsin can lull you to sleep and may not blow anyone away, but they are good and should prevail today. Purdue on the other hand beat a Baylor team in the first round that barely got in the tournament and today faces Xavier, a team that can play Purdue’s physical style and also run much better than the Boilermakers. Expect the Musketeers to win this game.
The other games not touched on are, Kansas vs. UNLV, and UCLA vs. Texas A&M. Neither top seeded team should have much trouble.
Listen to The Dean and his scouts!
Introducing Tmac by the Bay! . . . NCAA Tournament Preview.
I am going to begin with the Eastern Conference in hopes that you read the entire article. Saving the West for last truly is saving the best for last. What follows is a quick summary of each playoff team and playoff contender in the order that they currently sit after last night’s games. Here goes.
Eastern Conference
Boston Celtics: By far the most improved team from last year, but did you expect anything less from a team that added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett? Keep in mind that the most playoff experienced Celtic is PJ Brown, which is why they Celtics best chance of getting to the Conference Championship is to drop to #2 so as to avoid the Cavaliers in the second round. I rank the Celtics 3rd in the Conference behind Detroit and Cleveland.
Detroit Pistons: The most experienced team in the East and this year the most under-the-radar team in the East. They are in the best position to have an ‘easy’ run to the Finals. The Wizards, 76ers, Nets or Hawks are their likely First Round matchup, with the Magic, Raptors or one of the previously mentioned teams waiting for them in the 2nd Round. I expect the Pistons to be in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Orlando Magic: Stan Van Gundy, my 2nd favorite Van Gundy and one of my favorite coaches, has done a great job with the Magic and Dwight Howard is a stud. The Magic can be dangerous but I see them as very beatable. The Magic are the most likely first-round upset victim.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The team nobody wants to face. It doesn’t matter what this team’s seed ends up being. The additions they made in recent weeks have strengthened an already very good team, and let’s not forget that unlike the Celtics, this team has won in the playoffs before. I expect the Cavaliers to face the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Toronto Raptors: Now we starts getting into teams that really have no chance. Biggest question for the Raptors is Chris Bosh’s health. If he remains out, the Raptors could fall out of the playoffs.
Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas may be back soon will help, and they are most likely to draw the Magic in Round 1. That being said, that is all the Wizards have to root for and let’s all pray that they stay away from the two-colored uniforms.
Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are on a great run, and they work their tails off all game long. Problem is, they just don’t match-up with any of their possible first round opponents. Playing the Pistons in Round 1 will at least allow Rip Hamilton to play near his hometown of Coatesville, PA.
New Jersey Nets: The current #8 seed which I think will drop out of the playoffs. The Nets did a good thing by getting rid of Jason Kidd. Even with him they were looking at a first-round exit.
Atlanta Hawks: I find it somewhat exciting that the Hawks are in the playoff hunt. Not sure why to be honest. Perhaps it is flashback to the old days of Dominique Wilkins and Tree Rollins. Getting Mike Bibby was nice to see, nice because it shows that the Hawks may actually care a little.
The Rest of the Pack: Technically, the Pacers, Bulls and Bucks are still in the hunt but if you think I am going to write about those teams, you are sorely mistaken. Should they start to have more than a mathematical chance I will give them their props.
Western Conference
Only 5 games separate #1 from #8 and I am not sure if the Spurs or Lakers would be #1 if the season ended right now, but the following is the snapshot of the Western Conference playoffs as it stands right now. There are exciting matchups every where you look!
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs just keep on keepin’ on. What can be said about them, other than they keep playing team basketball and matchup with every other team out there. The Spurs are my pick to win it all.
Los Angeles Lakers: Getting Gasol was the best move out of all the Western Conference trades. It proves that Kobe was wrong before when he thought he could win it all himself, and it also makes this Laker team great. People are excited about Andrew Bynum’s return, but I think they may be better off without him. Let this current group continue to gel.
New Orleans Hornets: The Hornets are the most likely team to be upset. They are having one heck of a year, but their lack of experience will do them in once the playoffs begin.
Utah Jazz: A very good team that plays very hard every possession. It is so nice to see this team do well and not have to see that jack-ass Karl Malone.
Houston Rockets: The Rockets have played great since Yao Ming got hurt, but the true tests are coming up this week. They have won 15 in a row which is very impressive, but I can’t see this team doing much more than getting to the second-round. That being said, getting to the secon-round should keep McGrady from crying at a press conference.
Phoenix Suns: They get Shaq and they go on a bad run. Here’s the deal. Once the playoffs start, this team with the addition of Shaq presents a ton of match-up problems for most teams. Losing Shawn Marion is going to take some getting used to, but expect the Suns to make a run in the playoffs, depending on when they have to face the Lakers or Spurs.
Dallas Mavericks: I understand the Mavericks desire to add Jason Kidd. But since he has joined them they are 4-4 and he missed a foul shot in the last seconds of the game against the Lakers that could’ve extended it to another OT. The only way the Mavericks are going to get better is for Dirk Nowitski to grow a set of nuts. In crunch time, he is more likely to take a fall-away jumper than go to the basket. Until that changes, nothing with this team will change.
Golden State Warriors: The Warriors only hope is to get the Mavericks in the first-round again.
Denver Nuggets: They are in it, but the Nuggets lack of an inside presence will haunt them. They can score, but they can’t defend. I believe they only get in the playoffs if a team above them gets cold and drops out.
The Rest of the Pack: The Trail Blazers have a shot, but their best basketball is behind them. They remain a nice story, having a great turn-around year, and they do deserve mention in this article, but don’t expect to see them in the playoffs.
I am sitting at the bar of Josie’s on the Upper West Side enjoying a Blood Orange Margarita, making light conversation with an adorable bartender who just so happens to be named Josie and alternately reading news on my Palm, reading an article in The Atlantic about China, and texting friends. This is of course going against all I am trying to learn in regards to focusing and meditation, but old habits die hard and the margarita only spurs more thought.
For a Friday night, there were some real good news bits. NFL Free Agency singings, Hank Steinbrenner making comments that brought a huge smile to my face, and a report that a judge ordered the grand jury testimony of Barry Bonds to be unsealed. For me, being able to alternate between Josie, the margarita, China, text messages and great sports news was almost more than I could handle.
Let me start with what, in my opinion, is the most significant free agency signing of this early free agency season. Asante Samuel signed a 6 year contract with the Philadelphia Eagles, reportedly worth $57 million with $20 million of it guaranteed. This is a big deal for the Eagles and for the Patriots. This past season the Eagles had the fewest takeaways in the league and did not score a defensive touchdown. This fact was blurred in Philadelphia where all people want to do is bash Donovan McNabb. So that is one piece of the puzzle for the Eagles that should help them be near the top of the hyper-competitive NFC East next year.
For the Patriots, not re-signing Samuel could signify a much larger trend for the most dominant team in the past 10 years. After the Giants win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, I was chatting with good friend T-Mac by the Bay and he posed to me the following question. “Which Super Bowl team, Giants or Patriots, are most likely to miss the playoffs next season?†He asked this question because for the past 5 or so years one Super Bowl participant had not made the playoffs the following year. At the time, both T-Mac and I were looking for a reason to say the Pats would not make the playoffs, but we both knew it would come down to the off-season and what deals were made or not made. Now, with Samuel gone and Randy Moss unsigned T-Mac and I have the ammunition we need to go with the Patriots as the team to not make the playoffs. However, with the AFC East being considerably weaker than the NFC East, and with the Giants losing some key defensive players yesterday (Kawika Mitchell to the Bills, Reggie Torbor to the Dolphins, and Gibril Wilson to the Raiders), and Michael Strahan undecided on his possible return, the Giants are certainly no lock to make the playoffs next year.
Speaking of the Patriots and Giants, this past Super Bowl did nothing to chill the rivalry between New York and the pseudo-city to the north, Boston. And with spring training underway Hank Steinbrenner threw a big heaping serving of gasoline onto the already roaring fire. To go back to last week, Boston GM Theo Epstein made comments about the Red Sox upcoming trip to Japan and for some reason felt it necessary to name Mike Mussina as an example of a player that bitched and moaned about the trip when the Yankees went to the Pacific Rim a few years back. While Epstein’s intention was to say to his players, don’t bitch and moan, there was no reason for him to mention Mike Mussina by name, and even more unnecessary was to say that the Yankees used it as an excuse considering that they won the division that year.
Now to Hank’s comments, which he made during an interview that will appear in The New York Times Play magazine. Here is Hank’s comment: “”Red Sox Nation?” What a bunch of shit that is. That was a creation of the Red Sox and ESPN, which is filled with Red Sox fans. Go anywhere in America and you won’t see Red Sox hats and jackets, you’ll see Yankee hats and jackets. This is a Yankee country. We’re going to put the Yankees back on top and restore the universe to order.”
I love it! Keep it up Hank! And Fuck the Red Sox!
I know a lot of people are tired of all the steroid and HGH talk, and people feel that pursuing liars is a waste of time and money. However, I am not one of those people.
First, when baseball games begin people will focus on baseball and the steroid talk will only come up when a player tests positive. That does not mean that those who have tangled themselves in their own web of lies won’t be the focus of talk, but that is a good thing.
Let me address everyone’s concerns about how Congress spends their time and our tax dollars. The war in Iraq, poverty, homelessness, the US economy and all other very important issues are in no way being pushed aside. If the issue of performance enhancing drugs wasn’t a topic, the aforementioned issues would still exist and they wouldn’t be any closer to resolution.
Second, if people told the truth there wouldn’t be a need for a Congressional investigation. When you lie, especially under oath, you are asking for trouble. Just ask Bill Clinton. The truth shall set you free, and it is about time people start speaking the truth. We all want sports figures to be role models but now that they are being asked to be true role models of how a person should act, a few of them are showing their true colors of liars and cheats that will stop at nothing to salvage their own egos.
Roger and Barry loved being in the spotlight, and wanted nothing more than to further their careers and to acquire more attention. Be careful what you wish for gentlemen, wou just might get it.
Lastly, professional sports leagues are given huge breaks when it comes to taxes and anti-trust exemptions. They do owe it to us, the American people, and to Congress, to answer these questions and to run leagues that at the very least appear to be legitimate. In an upcoming article I will write about the future of the NFL and gambling and why the New England Patriots supposed spying is a big deal.
[powered by WordPress.]
Posting tweet...
Powered by Twitter Tools
30 queries. 0.766 seconds
