I like to look back on games and identify what I missed, the thing or the nothing that had I or had I not considered it, would’ve or could’ve allowed me to see the light or a at least a different light. Ya dig? BC the other night is a prime example of me not going back and listening to what I have come to believe about a team after seeing them play. After watching BC numerous times this year I drew the conclusion that they have a very good QB and a bunch of over-achieving, typical BC, experienced players and they won games, but not impressively; and as of late not many at all. Still, I went with BC because, well I don’t know why and that is what pisses me off. Why did I go with BC? It defies logic; problem is I wasn’t aware at the time of decision making of what my previously stated logic about BC was. There is a flaw in my pre-game research. Anyway, after jumping up big with a parlay and a single win on Thursday, my increase didn’t last as I was let down by BYU and Tampa Bay. If I had to do the BYU game over again I would do it exactly the same way. Had I known the Bucs were going to sit people, I would not have gone that way. Just saying. Yesterday came together nicely, hitting 3 Team-O/U parlays as well as hitting my documented 5-star and a 3-star picks. No losses on the day! We’ll see what today brings. So far I like the Browns, and I think that’s it. Let me dive into Covers.com and extend my research.
I am back after about 10 minutes of research, many games I will not even consider due all the questions about what players will be playing or resting. I arrived at 3 games that I like and also got a chuckle out of seeing Indy +5 at home against TEN.
The teams I like today are:
Cleveland -11.5
Miami +2.5
Pittsburgh -3.5
None of them are 5-stars and I have a hard time seeing any of them as 4-stars. 3-stars it is across the board. Out of the lot, Pittsburgh is the only team that has a playoff reason for competing today. A Steeler win and a Charger loss would give the Steelers the 3 seed and a date with either Cleveland or Tennessee, both better options than Jacksonville. Cleveland meanwhile will most certainly do the Cleveland thing, which is to win a game in glorious fashion when the outcome of the game has no bearing on their destination, but yet their destination is not yet determined. Miami is playing Cincinnati, I remember how Cincy mailed it in against the 49ers two weeks ago. Don’t be fooled by last week’s win over the Browns. That was a rivalry game and Cincy was in the spoiler role. In Miami, the Dolphins do have reason to compete even if the reasons are selfish. I like my chances with a very bad team of 11 motivated individuals against a not very good team of 11 unmotivated individuals.
Penn St. -5.5
I marked this game as a 5-star in my mind when they released the Bowl Schedule. Nothing has occurred to make me change my mind. There are some suspensions on the PSU team that could influence the game, but at the end of the day the reasons I liked PSU from the get-go haven’t changed so neither has the ranking of this game. No team seems to prepare as well as Penn St., and as there is something to be said for being there before; PSU has certainly been there before. A&M meanwhile is not going to be retaining their staff so there isn’t much to be played for on the Aggies side of things. I am going big on the Lions.
Giants +13
This is the last game that New England can F up and still be considered great. After this, any loss will put New England in the same category of 30 other teams, losers. That is going to make the Pats a little more tight than they may usually be, which isn’t very tight at all. But at this level, all factors count. The Giants on the other hand lose nothing by losing this game and that should allow them to approach the game without their usual tightness. I do believe this game will be well played by both teams and the Patriots haven’t been covering lines of late. I am not loving the Giants, because I know the Giants. But I do like them enough to put 3-stars on them..
Isn’t it amazing how Boston and New York seem to play each other in epic games? The truth is, Red Sox – Yankees is so big and has been so hyped that it just seems like these two cities’ teams are always meeting up. That doesn’t do much to quell the marketing-conspiracy theorists out there. But if the leagues are actually able to orchestrate the best possible Marketing game, then my hats off to them, because that would be damn tough to pull off.
Buffalo +2.5 and Seattle -11
There are a lot of reasons to not take either of these teams. But lets focus on why I did take them. Seattle is a different team at home than on the road and last week’s loss at Carolina exemplifies that point. Baltimore meanwhile has given up on the year. They gave Miami their first win and now have to travel across the country, not something this team wishes to do. Buffalo meanwhile also plays very well at home but has a way of breaking hearts. The Giants are struggling and they are not in a must-win situation. Because there are reasons to dislike both of these games, I am keeping it at 2-stars.
Houston +6.5 and NY Jets +8
The Texans have already captured their best season in franchise history and would be looking at a playoff spot if not for being in the AFC South. The Colts have their post-season plans established, not much for them to play for. The Texans will play them tough and might even pull off the upset. The Jets meanwhile go into Tennessee with Chad at QB, which is a good thing for the Jets. Granted Chad does not have great arm strength, but he generally makes good decisions and that is all the Jets need in order to cover this spread. Chances are the Jets will find a way to lose, but it should be close.
Jacksonville -13
I stated on The Dean Browski Show a few weeks back that I would pick Jacksonville as the team with the best chance to knock off the Patriots. Jacksonville has done nothing to make me change my mind. Oakland meanwhile is bringing to an end another bad season and they have to travel, not something any of these guys are looking forward to. The Jags meanwhile are playing for playoff position. Their power running game should control the game and be an easy cover, hence the 5-stars.
Tampa Bay -6
Merry Christmas on this one. Don’t be scared by the low line or the 49ers win last week over the Bengals. Tampa still has something to play for and Jeff Garcia is going to like being back in the town where he has had a lot of success. The 49ers looking to next year, or maybe not. They definitely are not looking forward to this game. Tampa is the darkhorse in the NFC and will control this game from start to finish.
Cincinnati -11
As I spoke about on The Dean Browski Show, coaching vacancies are a hot button item to look for this Bowl Season. Southern Miss fired Jeff Bower after pretty successful years at the helm. I am not alone in being surprised by Coach Bower’s firing, so don’t be surprised if there is unrest among the team. It can be difficult to adapt to new methods of the interim coach and to do it against a good Cincinnati team makes it that much more difficult. But more than the coaching change at So Miss, the Bearcats are deserving of accolades and 3-stars. Their own coach may not be around much longer, but it would be to go to a more high-profile program. Cincinnati has some impressive wins this year and is 8-2-1 ATS, with their 2 non-covers coming in back-to-back losses to Pitt and Louisville in October. In addition to those two losses, they lost (but covered) against West Virginia.
Nevada +2.5
I don’t know much about these teams, hence the low stars. What I do know is that New Mexico is without their leading rusher due to academic issues, and I know that Nevada has the #7 ranked offense. One might think the home-field advantage would be in New Mexico’s favor, but Vegas doesn’t think so as the line is only 2.5. That is surprising given that New Mexico is 8-4 while Nevada is 6-6. Nevada lost to Boise St. and Hawaii by a total of 4 points; New Mexico has a win over Arizona.
BYU -6.5
I have been salivating over this game since the matchup was announced. UCLA’s coach, Karl Dorrell, as fired at the end of the year which only adds to my love of BYU. UCLA lost to Notre Dame, joining the elite ranks of Duke and Stanford. In addition to that, the Bruins lost to Utah 44-6. UCLA is not worthy of being in a bowl. Here are the highlights of their 6 wins: they beat this BYU team in Week 2. In that game BYU out gained the Bruins and fell behind 20-0, only to fight back to 20-17. Since then UCLA has acquired wins over weaker opponents and if not for Oregon losing Dennis Dixon UCLA would have lost that game and finished 5-7. It is tough to beat someone more than once in the same year, and to know how much has changed, today’s line represents a 14 point swing from their first meeting. BYU is also on a 9 game winning streak. BYU gets 5-stars!
Listen to The Dean and his scouts!
Show Highlights: Mitchell Report . . . A few Bowl games . . . NFL Week 16 Preview . . . HJs
Cowboys -10
Follow me on this, Dallas soundly beat the Packers two weeks ago and people that weren’t already in love with them fell for them hard. Then with extra rest and an easy opponent, everyone loved the Cowboys on the board as well. That ended nicely for Dallas but not for any of their ‘new fans. Philly meanwhile saw their playoff hopes end last week, they have issues both on and off the field, the fan base is more interested in what to do with McNabb than anything else and now they have to go into Dallas. That all equals a big Dallas win. I am going 4-stars.
Chargers -10
The Lions said they loved Jesus and they were winning, I wonder if they are blaming him now that they are losing. Going into San Diego when the Chargers need a win is not good for the Lions. San Diego still has much to prove and their weakness (Philip Rivers) will not have to perform today. I like San Diego at 4-stars as well.
Giants -5
The emotional toll the Redskins will pay for the tumultous last few weeks is due this week. The Giants remain the most over-valued team, and that is why this game matters. The Giants have taken care of these games for the most part, and Washington is also starting Todd Collins at QB. I like the Giants for 3-stars.
I am posting the 1pm games too late for anyone to wager on, but I do want to let y’all know what I liked. I just wasn’t able to get to the computer in time. I was able to get the games in however. I will post the 4pm and Sunday Night game later.
Steelers -3.5
I like good teams coming off of a bad loss. That would be the Steelers. I also believe that what you expect to happen in the NFL, doesn’t. Yes Jacksonville is playing well, which is why you should expect them to play well and cover; which is why I like the Steelers. The deficiencies of the Steelers shine through against certain teams, the Jaguars aren’t one of those teams.
Seahawks -7
Seattle has shown some toughness the past few weeks and have re-established themselves as the best team in the weak NFC West. Carolina has proven to just not be very good. Carolina just has no weapons to throw at anyone, they are too hurt and too old. Seattle meanwhile is playing with a renewed confidence and should have a nice time on the East Coast. A place that they have traveled to and done well in recently.
Buccaneers -12.5
The Falcons are done. Bobby Petrino pulling his little bitch act was the final straw for this team. They have been shorthanded all year, and now they are pissed and have to go into Tampa to face a Bucs team coming off of a bad loss. Atlanta was still talking about Petrino late in the week, which means they weren’t paying attention to the Bucs.
Bengals -8.5
I’ll tell you right now, there is no way in hell I am betting on the 49ers. That leaves me only two options, and not playing the game isn’t feasible. So, I like the Bengals, but how much do I like them? Cincinnati does have playoff hope, though it is slim. This team has a lot to prove, but I am not sure they have the discipline to prove anything. So I am weary of the Bengals but when you look at closer you see two teams going in opposite directions. The Bengals offense has be more like we expected the past few weeks and the 49ers can’t stop much of anything. They muscled up last week against the Vikings, shutting down Adrian Peterson . . . but they still lost by 20 points. The Bengals offense is more dynamic than Minnesota’s so don’t expect the shutting down of anything by the 49er defense. All this adds up to me feeling good enough about Cincinnati to play them at 3-stars.
Listen to The Dean and his scouts!
Show Highlights: Stormin annoys Dean . . . Stormin opens a lead on the Ogre . . . Dean threatens to cut people . . . a chaotic show that features all the scouts exhibiting poor behavior by talking over the other scouts
Jaguars -10.5
Let’s keep this simple. Carolina is not good; Jacksonville is good. Each of these teams is coming off of a week where they have done what is not common for either of them this year. Carolina won; Jacksonville lost. I suppose it is possible for the Jaguars to be sulking after yet another loss to the Colts, but I don’t think it is likely. What is mush less likely is the Panthers playing well 2 weeks in a row. That being said, they may not have played all that well last week. It was the 49ers they beat up on. I am playing 6 games today so a 3-star rating is as high as I am going.
Cowboys -10.5
This game bring more drama than you would expect being that the Lions are 5 games behind the Cowboys. Detroit started the year making Jon Kitna look like a prophet but lately, they all have reverted to the form we expect out of the Detroit Lions. I do believe Dallas has issues in their secondary, but the Lions WR corps is not at full strength and the Cowboy offense is too good to not put up points against a soft Lion defense. Dallas also had more time off since their last game; I am going to believe that they made good use of the time and will come out rested and sharp, not flat and unfocused.
Vikings -8.5
Minnesota hasn’t been favored by this much all year; they also have been receiving a lot of accolades. This has me a bit nervous. The Vikings deserve all the nice things people are saying about them, and the 49ers deserve everything that people say about them. With Adrian Peterson back and looking good, the Vikings should be able to control the ball and set up their ever-improving QB Tavaris Jackson. The 49ers meanwhile are bad and their showing in Carolina last week gives me all I need to know about this team. Look for Minnesota to keep their hot-streak alive.
Broncos -7
Denver is coming off a bad loss in Oakland last week; only 1 game separates these two teams; Herm Edwards vs. Mike Shanahan. Those three reasons are the reason I like Denver. The NFL is a counter-intuitive league. Look at what happened one week and then expect the opposite to come true. Does Denver drop two in a row to the two worst teams in their division? No. If KC were to win this game they would be tied with Denver at 5-8. Is KC as good as Denver? No. Lastly, Denver is still competing for a playoff spot while KC is done. In this scenario do you really think Herm Edwards will outcoach Mike Shanahan? No. All those No’s add up to a big Yes for the Broncos.
Steelers +10.5
Everyone wants to hop on the Steelers after the Patriots have struggled the past two weeks. When this many people go in one direction, I generally like to go the other way. Do people really think the Steelers can win or do they just really WANT the Pats to lose? It has been hard to get a read on Pittsburgh the past few weeks. Their 3-0 win over Miami was so greatly influenced by the weather that it is hard to consider the game. Throw in a loss to the Jets and a good cover against the Bengals and what you are left with is a big question mark. The Pats meanwhile have proved one thing to me the past two weeks. They know how to win. The coaching matchup here doesn’t give me any confidence in the Steelers. I am going to lay 1-star on Pittsburgh, for the reasons that New England has played two very tough games back to back, and the extra pressure of the undefeated season may help Pittsburgh. Of course, the Pats defense hasn’t looked great, but the Jets shut the Steelers down so why can’t New England?
Colts -8.5
Can Baltimore shake off the tough week from last week and play out of their minds again? I don’t think so. The Ravens are the most undisciplined team in the NFL and it showed last week with their meltdown on the final Patriot TD and their subsequent bitching and moaning about the officials. To top it off, the Ravens are on a short week. The week was shortened even further by their inability to put the NE game behind them and get focused on the Colts. This is a re-match of last year’s AFC Divisional playoff game, a game won by the Colts on a day that they did not bring their A game. The Ravens are also incapable of putting back to back good offensive games together. I am putting 3-stars on the Colts.
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