Value Picks

For those that don’t know, Value Picks are determined by comparing the Actual Line with The Dean’s Line and identifying those games with a line differential of 3 or greater. The Actual Line is just as it sounds, it is the line at the time you are making your wagering decision. Being that lines move, a game that is a Value Pick one day, may not be the next. The Dean’s Line is the average line of The Dean and his Scouts. For example, The Dean and his scouts set the line for the 49ers/Giants game at -6, -5, -7, -6.5, and -7. The average is -6.3. With the Actual Line being -9.5, this game is a Value Pick because the line differential is 3.2. All lines are communicated via the Home Team, with the above example the Giants are favored but we do not think the Giants should have to give more than 6.3 points. Since NYG has to give 9.5, the 49ers are a Value Pick.

San Francisco 49ers +9.5

The Dean’s line is San Francisco +6.3. I believe the Giants are an overvalued team and the public is buying into it. Lets not forget the troubles that this time battled last year and at the beginning of this year. While I certainly believe teams grow and mature, I am not convinced that is how Big Blue has won 4 in a row. They have won 4 in a row by playing teams that were either hurt or couldn’t match the talent of the Giants. Today they play a 49ers team that is not playing well themselves, which I why I like the Giants to win, but the points are too many. The only thing that could sabotage The Dean’s line is that my scouts are made up people that despise the Giants and others that are Giants fans. We will have to see if my scouts were able to follow my advice and remove their emotions from their decision making.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5

The Dean’s line is Pittsburgh -7.4.I like this game, Value Pick or not. The Broncos are going in a bad direction with the pending loss of Travis Henry and problems at QB. The Steelers meanwhile are sound in all facets of the game and unless Coach Shanahan was ableto draw up some trickery during the bye week, the Broncos are over matched and outclassed by the Black and Gold.

Indianapolis Colts -3

The Dean’s line is Indianapolis -6.8.This game scares me. The Colts struggle in Jacksonville and against Jacksonville. The Jaguars offense has come around the past few weeks, but it has been against less than stellar defenses. The Colts meanwhile needed their bye week more than anyone and if they got healthy, even a little, I will feel a lot better about this pick. My personal line on this game is Indy -3, but the system points to this game as a Value Pick thanks to Trip’s and Stormin’s lines of -10 and -9 for the Colts. The wisdom of the crowd pulls the Colts into the realm of a Value Pick, and so it will be!

Notes and Other Games

Listeners of Streaming Browski may recall the Bears being a Value Pick. An error occurred with the recalculation of The Dean’s line and in actuality this game is NOT a Value Pick. The Dean’s line is Chicago +3.8, the Actual Line is +6 . . . At the conclusion of Friday’s Streaming Browski, my scouts and I identified other games we liked, here they are. . . .Shrek the Stat Ogre likes the Ravens in Buffalo despite the injuries on the Baltimore defense. As the Stat Ogre is fond of saying, “I don’t make the picks, the numbers make the picks”. We will dive deeper into Shrek’s statistical breakdowns as the year goes on. . . . Cole Trickel is putting his support behind the Atlanta Falcons with only The Ogre backing that call. The QB change in Atlanta may make a difference, and Cole is not buying the Saints being back. . . . Stormin Crotch likes the heavily favored New England Patriots. The feeling among the group is to not go against the Patriots as they seem to be a million miles away from every other team. Cole and Shrek voiced their opposition to this pick, based on it being such a large spread. . . .Trip McNeely, the coolest of all The Dean’s Scouts likes the Tennessee Titans. The big question in this game is the health of Vince Young. Trip strongly encouraged people to hop on the line early and bank on Young playing. . . . .Dean Browski’s special play is the New York Jets getting 6 points in Cincinnati. I like this game because I believe the Jets issues are able to be remedied while the Bengals issues are drug, alcohol and maturity related.