Missouri Tigers -3.5

The Missouri Tigers may be one of the most under-valued teams in college football. They have been putting the pieces together better than any other year and had a great showing against a very good Oklahoma team last week. The worst thing that happened to Missouri was the Sooners losing to Colorado, otherwise Missouri would have been the team that bit Oklahoma. On the year Missouri is 5-0 ATS and undefeated at home. Texas Tech meanwhile brings their usual high-powered offense into this game and their usual porous defense. Missouri can match Tech’s offense and they are too good to drop two in a row. I like Missouri a lot, and the 3.5 is a good value.

Michigan Wolverines -1

Here is a Home Dog in Illinois and I am going the other way. Home Dogs are 2-1 ATS so far this weekend, and while I believe that in order to get value out of a trend it needs to be played all the time, I also believe that our ability to analyze should not be overruled by a stat. If the trend hit 100% of the time, then never go against it, but when you feel you have found a way to change the losses to wins, you must do it. The Big 10 is starting to reshape itself into the league people expect it to be. Michigan has shaken off their early troubles and Illinois’ great start is being tempered by them now paying better opponents. The Wolverine’s offense has been putting up points and with the Illini’s poor offensive showing last week in Iowa, the Wolverines are a value at -1.

Maryland Terrapins -4

The Terps are an unranked team favored over a ranked team. When this occurs The Dean likes taking the unranked team. Virginia has rattled off 6 straight wins after a loss at Wyoming the opening week while Maryland has dropped two, one to Wake Forest in OT and the other to West Virginia, both on the road. In terms of quality wins, both teams have defeated Georgia Tech and Maryland defeated Rutgers. The standout stat in this game is the unranked team being favored, that combined with Maryland winning the last three times they have played the Cavaliers at University Park entices me to take the Terps and give the points.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish +17

Notre Dame has gotten better every week and USC has gotten more hurt and worse every week. It doesn’t matter if both these teams were 1-6, this game is always emotional and when in South Bend always hard-fought. USC’s value is not as high as it is perceived to be, and they are certainly nowhere near as good as they have been in past years, injuries or not. The Trojans have not covered a spread in their past 3 games, and their wins this year aren’t that impressive. The money line here is ND +780, and I think that is a nice wager if you are into longshots. Should ND win today it is not as big of an upset as it may appear to be. The Irish getting this many points at home against a banged up rival makes them a real good value.

THIS WEEKEND’S HOME DOGS

Rutgers, Thursday, covered (w)

Connecticut, Friday, covered (w)

Eastern Michigan, Friday, no cover (2)

Navy, no cover (17)

Iowa St., covered

Colorado, no cover (2)

Baylor, covered

Pittsburgh, covered (w)

Indiana, covered

Illinois, no cover (8)

UAB, no cover (26.5)

Notre Dame, no cover (21.5)

Western Michigan, no cover (3)

Temple, covered (w)

San Diego St., covered

Washington, no cover (8.5)

Alabama, covered, (w)

Mississippi, no cover (30.5)

Kentucky, no cover (1)

UL Lafayette, no cover (2)

Utah St., covered

Louisiana Tech, covered

Marshall, Sunday, no cover (5.5)

Home Dogs 11-12 ATS
6 games qualified for 2 team teaser winners.
3 games qualified for 3 team teaser winners.
9 out of 12 losers qualified as a Teaser Candidate.