For those that don’t know, Value Picks are determined by comparing the Actual Line with The Dean’s Line and identifying those games with a line differential of 3 or greater. The Actual Line is just as it sounds, it is the line at the time you are making your wagering decision. Being that lines move, a game that is a Value Pick one day, may not be the next. The Dean’s Line is the average line of The Dean and his Scouts. For example, The Dean and his scouts set the line for the 49ers/Giants game at -6, -5, -7, -6.5, and -7. The average is -6.3. With the Actual Line being -9.5, this game is a Value Pick because the line differential is 3.2. All lines are communicated via the Home Team, with the above example the Giants are favored but we do not think the Giants should have to give more than 6.3 points. Since NYG has to give 9.5, the 49ers are a Value Pick.
Dean Browski: Houston +8; Stormin Crotch: Houston +3; Tripp McNeely: Houston +8; Cole Trickel: Houston +6.5; Shrek the Stat Ogre: Houston +5
Dean Browski: Jacksonville PICK; Stormin Crotch: Jacksonville -3; Tripp McNeely: Jacksonville -5; Cole Trickel: Jacksonville +6.5; Shrek the Stat Ogre: Jacksonville -2
Dean Browski: Buffalo +2; Stormin Crotch: Buffalo -3; Tripp McNeely: Buffalo -3; Cole Trickel: Buffalo +1; Shrek the Stat Ogre: Buffalo +3
Dean Browski: Green Bay +3; Stormin Crotch: Green Bay -3; Tripp McNeely: Green Bay -5.5; Cole Trickel: Green Bay +1.5; Shrek the Stat Ogre: Green Bay -5
Dean Browski likes Chicago -5.5 . . . . Shrek likes Washington +16 . . . . Stormin likes New Orleans-3 . . . . Tripp likes Indianapolis -6.5. . . . Cole likes New York Giants -9.5.
The Dean’s line is Houston +6.1
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
The Dean’s line is Jacksonville -0.7
Buffalo Bills +3
The Dean’s line is Pick ‘em
Green Bay Packers +3
The Dean’s line is Green Bay -1.8
Notes and Other Games
At the start of the week I saw this game as a prime Teaser Candidate, and I still do. But after sleeping on this game for a few nights the Scarlet Knights have become even more attractive. I am trying to find something, anything impressive about WVUs wins this year and I just can’t do it. What sticks in my mind is that whenever the Mountaineers find themselves in a tough game, their two superstars head south. I wrote it before, I have said it on the air and I will continue to preach that Pat White and Steve Slaton are soft. They like to run around, but they don’t like to be hit. Rutgers is in a hitting mood. They had an nice win over South Florida last week and they have revenge on their minds ever since WVU knocked them from BCS possibilities last year. On top of that, I didn’t see Rutgers losing 3 games this year, and I still don’t.
Every week there are a few Road Favorites that cover and I am looking to South Florida to be one of them this week. The Bulls are good, but didn’t handle the spotlight all that well last week in Piscataway and now need to bounce back. Heading to Storrs CT is just what The Dean ordered. Looking at UConn this year, they have either had the best fortune in the world or have been paying the refs. Temple should’ve come out of Storrs with a win, and Louisville was the victim of one of the most horrid officiating jobs EVER. If UConn gets more BS calls today like they have gotten all year, then I will be opening my own investigation. But don’t count on it. South Florida is too good, and the bad weather will work in the Bulls favor due to QB Grothe’s athleticism.
I am looking to the Volunteers to keep a trend alive. The trend is unranked teams being favored over ranked teams, and that’s just what the Volunteers are today against South Carolina. The Gamecocks lost a game last week that surprised most everyone and perhaps they will refocus. But what I see when I look at South Carolina this year, I see some close games and two somewhat quality wins, one over Georgia and the other over Kentucky. Tennessee meanwhile has been a different team at home than on the road, though they haven’t exactly over-impressed. Aside from the trend, South Carolina has issues at QB and going to Knoxville is not going to help them.
#1 will drop tonight. For whatever reason, PSU, more specifically Anthony Morelli, is much different at home than on the road. The Nittany Lions’ offense woke up last week and their defense gave up enough points to make bettors think OSU will be able to put up points. That won’t happen. Look over OSU’s schedule, they have NO impressive wins, none, zero. Its the end of the Buckeyes’ undefeated run, though they will stick around for the National Championship conversation.
Break out the bankroll, we are going big tonight! All signs point to a Hokie win and easy cover against an overrated Boston College team. Blacksburg will be rocking and the BC will not be able to escape it with their usual unimpressive brand of football. The very fact that ND and UMass stayed within striking distance shows that this Eagles team is not cut out for a #2 ranking. You combine the fact that it is a Thursday night game which is known for upsets with a lower ranked team favored and you have yourself a 5-star winner.
Listen to today’s Dean Browski show where The Dean and his scouts breakdown the upcoming NFL weekend.
For those that don’t know, Value Picks are determined by comparing the Actual Line with The Dean’s Line and identifying those games with a line differential of 3 or greater. The Actual Line is just as it sounds, it is the line at the time you are making your wagering decision. Being that lines move, a game that is a Value Pick one day, may not be the next. The Dean’s Line is the average line of The Dean and his Scouts. For example, The Dean and his scouts set the line for the 49ers/Giants game at -6, -5, -7, -6.5, and -7. The average is -6.3. With the Actual Line being -9.5, this game is a Value Pick because the line differential is 3.2. All lines are communicated via the Home Team, with the above example the Giants are favored but we do not think the Giants should have to give more than 6.3 points. Since NYG has to give 9.5, the 49ers are a Value Pick.
The Dean’s line is San Francisco +6.3. I believe the Giants are an overvalued team and the public is buying into it. Lets not forget the troubles that this time battled last year and at the beginning of this year. While I certainly believe teams grow and mature, I am not convinced that is how Big Blue has won 4 in a row. They have won 4 in a row by playing teams that were either hurt or couldn’t match the talent of the Giants. Today they play a 49ers team that is not playing well themselves, which I why I like the Giants to win, but the points are too many. The only thing that could sabotage The Dean’s line is that my scouts are made up people that despise the Giants and others that are Giants fans. We will have to see if my scouts were able to follow my advice and remove their emotions from their decision making.
The Dean’s line is Pittsburgh -7.4.I like this game, Value Pick or not. The Broncos are going in a bad direction with the pending loss of Travis Henry and problems at QB. The Steelers meanwhile are sound in all facets of the game and unless Coach Shanahan was ableto draw up some trickery during the bye week, the Broncos are over matched and outclassed by the Black and Gold.
The Dean’s line is Indianapolis -6.8.This game scares me. The Colts struggle in Jacksonville and against Jacksonville. The Jaguars offense has come around the past few weeks, but it has been against less than stellar defenses. The Colts meanwhile needed their bye week more than anyone and if they got healthy, even a little, I will feel a lot better about this pick. My personal line on this game is Indy -3, but the system points to this game as a Value Pick thanks to Trip’s and Stormin’s lines of -10 and -9 for the Colts. The wisdom of the crowd pulls the Colts into the realm of a Value Pick, and so it will be!
Listeners of Streaming Browski may recall the Bears being a Value Pick. An error occurred with the recalculation of The Dean’s line and in actuality this game is NOT a Value Pick. The Dean’s line is Chicago +3.8, the Actual Line is +6 . . . At the conclusion of Friday’s Streaming Browski, my scouts and I identified other games we liked, here they are. . . .Shrek the Stat Ogre likes the Ravens in Buffalo despite the injuries on the Baltimore defense. As the Stat Ogre is fond of saying, “I don’t make the picks, the numbers make the picks”. We will dive deeper into Shrek’s statistical breakdowns as the year goes on. . . . Cole Trickel is putting his support behind the Atlanta Falcons with only The Ogre backing that call. The QB change in Atlanta may make a difference, and Cole is not buying the Saints being back. . . . Stormin Crotch likes the heavily favored New England Patriots. The feeling among the group is to not go against the Patriots as they seem to be a million miles away from every other team. Cole and Shrek voiced their opposition to this pick, based on it being such a large spread. . . .Trip McNeely, the coolest of all The Dean’s Scouts likes the Tennessee Titans. The big question in this game is the health of Vince Young. Trip strongly encouraged people to hop on the line early and bank on Young playing. . . . .Dean Browski’s special play is the New York Jets getting 6 points in Cincinnati. I like this game because I believe the Jets issues are able to be remedied while the Bengals issues are drug, alcohol and maturity related.
The Missouri Tigers may be one of the most under-valued teams in college football. They have been putting the pieces together better than any other year and had a great showing against a very good Oklahoma team last week. The worst thing that happened to Missouri was the Sooners losing to Colorado, otherwise Missouri would have been the team that bit Oklahoma. On the year Missouri is 5-0 ATS and undefeated at home. Texas Tech meanwhile brings their usual high-powered offense into this game and their usual porous defense. Missouri can match Tech’s offense and they are too good to drop two in a row. I like Missouri a lot, and the 3.5 is a good value.
Here is a Home Dog in Illinois and I am going the other way. Home Dogs are 2-1 ATS so far this weekend, and while I believe that in order to get value out of a trend it needs to be played all the time, I also believe that our ability to analyze should not be overruled by a stat. If the trend hit 100% of the time, then never go against it, but when you feel you have found a way to change the losses to wins, you must do it. The Big 10 is starting to reshape itself into the league people expect it to be. Michigan has shaken off their early troubles and Illinois’ great start is being tempered by them now paying better opponents. The Wolverine’s offense has been putting up points and with the Illini’s poor offensive showing last week in Iowa, the Wolverines are a value at -1.
The Terps are an unranked team favored over a ranked team. When this occurs The Dean likes taking the unranked team. Virginia has rattled off 6 straight wins after a loss at Wyoming the opening week while Maryland has dropped two, one to Wake Forest in OT and the other to West Virginia, both on the road. In terms of quality wins, both teams have defeated Georgia Tech and Maryland defeated Rutgers. The standout stat in this game is the unranked team being favored, that combined with Maryland winning the last three times they have played the Cavaliers at University Park entices me to take the Terps and give the points.
Notre Dame has gotten better every week and USC has gotten more hurt and worse every week. It doesn’t matter if both these teams were 1-6, this game is always emotional and when in South Bend always hard-fought. USC’s value is not as high as it is perceived to be, and they are certainly nowhere near as good as they have been in past years, injuries or not. The Trojans have not covered a spread in their past 3 games, and their wins this year aren’t that impressive. The money line here is ND +780, and I think that is a nice wager if you are into longshots. Should ND win today it is not as big of an upset as it may appear to be. The Irish getting this many points at home against a banged up rival makes them a real good value.
Rutgers, Thursday, covered (w)
Connecticut, Friday, covered (w)
Eastern Michigan, Friday, no cover (2)
Navy, no cover (17)
Iowa St., covered
Colorado, no cover (2)
Baylor, covered
Pittsburgh, covered (w)
Indiana, covered
Illinois, no cover (8)
UAB, no cover (26.5)
Notre Dame, no cover (21.5)
Western Michigan, no cover (3)
Temple, covered (w)
San Diego St., covered
Washington, no cover (8.5)
Alabama, covered, (w)
Mississippi, no cover (30.5)
Kentucky, no cover (1)
UL Lafayette, no cover (2)
Utah St., covered
Louisiana Tech, covered
Marshall, Sunday, no cover (5.5)
Home Dogs 11-12 ATS
6 games qualified for 2 team teaser winners.
3 games qualified for 3 team teaser winners.
9 out of 12 losers qualified as a Teaser Candidate.
Many times throughout the year a team will either look much better or much worse than they actually are. It happened to Tampa last week in Indianapolis where the Bucs looked bad, but they really aren’t. The Giants are getting the benefit of the opposite effect, a benefit for now at least. Two weeks ago the G-men played a banged up Eagles offensive line and took full advantage. The Giants then get a banged up and not-so-good Jets team and got a win. Tonight they play the Falcons who are playing two rookies at the Offensive Tackle positions and that does not bode well for Joey Harrington. The Giants will win tonight and they will look good doing it, further inflating the Giants in the publics eye. After tonight NYG will be within one game of the Cowboys but nowhere near being a good team. Take the Giants while you can, and take em big tonight.
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