Eastern Conference Finals

Detroit over Cleveland in 6 games

Western Conference Finals

San Antonio over Utah in 5 games

With one more game remaining in the first-round, and the first Conference Semi-Final game being played tonight, lets review The Dean’s first round picks and also set the predictions for the Semis. I was right on the money with all the Eastern Conference winners, though I did not have the total games played correct in any of them. In the West, I missed on Dallas and we will see how the Rockets do for me this evening.

Eastern Conference

Chicago over Detroit in 6 games: The only real surprise in the first round as I see it was the Bulls sweep of the Heat, though Chicago’s win shouldn’t have surprised anyone. The Heat are nowhere near the team they were last year, so don’t get fooled and over-value the Bulls. That being said, the Pistons beat an over-matched and relatively poor Orlando Magic team. Perhaps the Pistons were messing with everyone by not blowing the Magic away, but I don’t think so. Chicago is hot, they are young and energetic, the Pistons have no one to deal with Ben Wallace, and most importantly the Pistons have Chris Webber on their team. Webber is the kiss of death and should be the deciding factor for anyone still on the fence with this series.

Cleveland over New Jersey in 5 games: I stated it in my most recent NBA update and I am sticking with it, the Nets will get smoked in the second round. The Cavs were given a free pass but they played a team with more heart than the Nets have and were able to fend the Wizards off at every turn. The Nets have no answer for LeBron and also look for Ilgauskas to have his way in the paint. The Nets have experience, yes, but that will only get them one win in this series.

Western Conference

In the West, the Jazz and Rockets play the only Game 7 of the First-Round and it gives me an opportunity to nail that series should the Rockets win. Golden State is the team everyone is focused on after their impressive beat down of the Mavericks. Dirk is gone and there is no point in picking on the deceased, but let me say this, Dirk is not an MVP and but he is a head case. This Maverick loss rests with him, there are no ifs, ands or buts about it.

Phoenix over San Antonio in 7 games: There is a lot to like about both of these teams and I believe the winner of this series will advance to the NBA Finals. I am laying my money with the Suns for two reasons: Steve Nash and home court advantage.

Houston over Golden State in 7 games or Golden State over Utah in 6 games: Should the Rockets win tonight I don’t expect Jeff Van Gundy to make the same mistake that Avery Johnson did. If the Rockets attempt to get up and down the court with the Warriors they are making a huge mistake. In a half-court game all the advantages are with Houston. I also believe that Golden State is too emotional and not mature enough to win back to back series. Should the Jazz win tonight I take back everything I said about Golden State’s maturity.

There is a very interesting study that was released in the New York Times today that draws the conclusion that race plays a role in how fouls are called in the NBA. The study was done in conjunction with a larger study of race in American society.

The NBA disputes the claims, obviously, and does so with their own stats; stats they won’t fully release. The problem the NBA faces in defending itself is that there is no need for them to defend themselves. The NBA and its officials are not being accused of racism, but rather the study reinforces that race, along with a plethora of other factors, influence the way we as human beings make decisions.

“I would be more surprised if it didn’t exist,” Mr. Ian Ayres of Yale Law School said of an implicit association bias in the N.B.A. “There’s a growing consensus that a large proportion of racialized decisions is not driven by any conscious race discrimination, but that it is often just driven by unconscious, or subconscious, attitudes. When you force people to make snap decisions, they often can’t keep themselves from subconsciously treating blacks different than whites, men different from women.”

Don’t misunderstand the study to say that only white officials are biased against black players, because that isn’t the case. The study which was done by Justin Wolfers, an assistant professor of business and public policy at the Wharton School, and Joseph Price, a Cornell graduate student in economics, found that black officials call fouls on white players more frequently though the tendency is not as strong.

What I find most intriguing about this is that it is another example of how we make decisions. There are so many factors that influence the way we think, and they occur before we ever actually do the ‘thinking’. This point is the basis for the book Blink, which I suggest all of you read and/or listen to. I enjoy applying the context of the lessons in Blink and in this most recent study to wagering on sporting events. However, the lessons and principles are not limited to the sports world. These principles of decision making span our lives and when we are able to grasp them more fully and find ways to implement them, we end up making better decisions.

Click Here for a Text of the Study