April 10, 2007

Pr(S) = JPA x HW4

by @ 2:41 pm. Filed under Better Decisions, Wagering



I am of the firmest belief that Just Paying Attention (JPA) is sufficient to achieve mediocrity. When JPA is accompanied by Hard Work (HW), Success (S) then becomes more probable. Pr(S) = JPA x HW4

Pr(S)
0 – 20: Don’t forget anything is possible.
20.01 – 45.00: You never know.
45.01 – 55.00: There is a chance.
55.01 – 65.00: One that got away
65.01 – 80.00: Count on it
80.01 – 89.99: if it doesn’t happen, reevaluate
90.00 +: no reason it shouldn’t happen, if it doesn’t more than 77% of the time, then stop everything!

How do you interpret the above? How do you define JPA, HW and S? Is HW to the fourth power adequate? over-hyped?
What situation or situation type is this being applied to?

I would love to know your ideas and thoughts. Please post your responses as a Comment to this post so that others can learn from your perspective. If you are shy and don’t want your response public, then please Click Here and email your comments to me.

thedean@deanbrowski.com

6 Responses to “Pr(S) = JPA x HW4

  1. Yak Says:

    Good post Dean. If one is trying to assess what aspect of succeeding at something is most
    important, they might be hard pressed to respond with such a precise breakdown of the elements
    used to succeed. The Yak tries to take a holistic approach to everything he does. People must,
    of course, pay attention (JPA) to whatever they are doing, but how do they apply what they have
    learned, hard work (HW)? Yes, HW is definitely important, but what about IA? No I’m not
    talking about International Affairs, but Intelligent Application! It’s another version of the
    old adage “work smarter, not harder.” IA takes a lot of JPA and JPA takes a lot HW, even before
    you get to apply what you learned from JPA. That’s why whenever we approach our next task or
    challenge, we have to make sure we understand it and respect it. It boils down to our approach
    to life and life’s challenges. Can we break it down quantitatively, sure?
    Will it serve our purpose of succeeding? Not necessarily. We improve our chances of
    increasing our PR by so many things not captured in quantitative analysis. It all starts with
    knowing and understanding ourselves, which is the foundation of IA. Awareness of self is the
    key to success in all we do. Grounded perspective is what allows us to turn that key and
    prepare ourselves for the next challenge.

  2. psusi Says:

    The HW facter in the equation makes decisions easier to make. In the end you are
    dealing with humans, and the numbers can only guide you.

  3. The Dean Says:

    Both comments begin to touch on the complexities that my simple equation does not fully capture. I am of the belief however that all things in life are able to be reduced to a lowest common denominator. HW must have some element IA, as Yak stated. It is also important to note that a probability equation does not give us an answer in the same way a x+y=z does. With Probability, all we are left with is some understanding of whether we stand a good chance of something happening or a bad chance of something happening. As psusi states, all the end number can do is guide us.

    There is much to elaborate on, and I do not have my head around all that goes into understanding, or comprehending JPA, S or HW. HW may be the easiest to pick apart, as we all know it is better to work smarter than harder.

    Yak leaves us with some good words to contemplate: Awareness and Perspective. I will add a third, Clarity. Awareness, Perspective and Clarity; building blocks of good decision making.

  4. Zubl Says:

    Your forgetting the most important situation. While JPA may lead you to understand the situation and HW can assume S. What about (D) dedication and (R) Responsibility to combine all three into a reality.

    We can all hope and with success (hopefully) will come with the above explanation, but JPA+HW4+S means nothing if we assume we have done it all and let it ride.

    Maybe it is a over-formulated way of thinking, but the three formulas to me don’t lead to the outcome unless completed by the dedication/responsibility of oneself to the objective.

    We all assume Paying attention , Hard work leads to success…but we sometimes forget that we need that extra situation that means not JPA, HW or S but for right success….you can have all 3 and fail miserably…but if you dedicate yourself to the responsibility of the 3 and add the (D)/(R) equation. You can assume dedication & responsibility. OH MY GOD responsibility what a word.

    If you take dedication of the JPA plus the HW add in the responsibility and hardwork ba bamm if you fail or succeed you tried. Then you try again and it becomes a satisfaction variable. Success becomes none consequential being you will try again!

    So now you have (JPA+HW+S)*R+D=something

    That to me is where it is at….hey it may not happen in that sequence but if you follow the situation and understand. Buh Bammm. Remember we all learned success is not always a good thing with wall street (the movie) it can be taken right away from you within seconds and wabamm where are you then…always have that alternate plan……thats My Responsibility or maybe it just another addition to the formula. I believe in the aforementioned descriptions but without ownership or responsibility, man how do you sleep at night? Oh HW (hardwork) is not responsibility…..I Can build a form and if I let it ride without updating it and it gets tons of attention for a month, then goes boom… I did the following (ala JPA,HW,S, doesn’t mean it was successful).
    JPA, HW, S but then the form craps out thats were the (R) or (D) factor comes in.

    Welcome alternative discussion.

    Just my humble opinion

    late peeps,

    I talk too much sometimes…..

  5. Zubl Says:

    You know I should have mentioned this…read the Book and don’t watch the movie or listen to a CD….”The Art Of War”…..will explain my way of thinking a little better and no you mo mo’s, I ain’t talking about swords and knifing your enemy.

    CIAO

  6. The Dean Says:

    Zubl, I am very glad that you re-invigorated this conversation. I am going to rethink my original equation to include your input and I am also going to read “The Art of War”.

[powered by WordPress.]

Instant Poll

Latest Tweets

Powered by Twitter Tools

Internal Links:


Subscription Center

 Dean's List (email)
 RSS
 iTunes Podcast



Contact Us

Resources and Partners

The Dean's Library

Barnes & Noble

Buy and Sell Tickets

Categories:

Search The Dean:

Archives:

April 2007
M T W T F S S
« Mar   May »
 1
2345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30  

Join

Dean Browski





Dean Browski

Store

Bet at Wagerweb


Sports Blog Directory

Like what the Dean has to say?

34 queries. 0.476 seconds