An 0-2 day yesterday has me a little down this AM, but not so much. I am admittedly weak on basketball, not from a lack of knowledge but from fear. Basketball, especially college and especially more the NCAA tournament makes scares me. As those of you that are in tune to how your own mind works, you will undoubtedly know that when you enter in to something with reservation and fear, the outcome is never as good as when the same situation is entered into with a clear mind and confidence. Many gamblers enter all their wagers with fear and uncertainty and their outcome never meets their desires. Those of us that have been able to temper the negative qualities with self-control on the amount wagered are able to maintain peace of mind and a somewhat level head. Those of you that are not able to do so, and you know who you are, force yourself into the roller-coaster of elation and desperation. That roller coaster is very unattractive to others, and more importantly is not good for your person or your purse.

My Memphis pick causes me no concern, as betting on Ohio St. is like investing in oil stocks. If it doesn’t bother you, then go ahead, but for this guy I don’t like having my money behind those that are corrupt and dirty. The UCLA/Kansas game however has me upset. Upset with myself. The reason for my self-loathing this morning is that I made the choice of Kansas out of ignorance, and I allowed my bias against PAC-10 schools to cloud my judgment. Had I kept a clear mind and fallen back on the very simple guideline of Experience when picking games, I would’ve taken the Bruins. UCLA has more players that have been playing for 2+ years, they have had more success in the tournament in recent years and the Big 12 is not any better than the PAC-10. As mentioned previously, and above, I am a bit ignorant on the college basketball landscape if for no other reason than I really can’t devote my time, attention and energy to games the entire season. I honestly don’t believe one does need to follow the basketball season the same way one must follow a football season, but still, I am closer to ignorant than I am to wise in that arena. When ignorance is present, bias will ultimately rule the day and that is what happened yesterday.

The point I want to emphasize is, establish the guidelines that are important to you and stick with them. Remove bias and emotion when deciding, always fall back on the general principles you find important. Had I followed my own advice I would have emerged from yesterday 1-1 instead of 0-2.

Enough of the historical analysis ,on to the next play:

Oregon +7

I am not calling for an upset here, I just think the Ducks will keep this close. Florida hasn’t been covering lines all year, going 14-15-1 ATS on the season. Oregon meanwhile is shooting the ball well and there is nothing to indicate that will stop today. Oregon has covered 8 of their last 9 and Florida seems perfectly content with just doing what it takes to win games. That may be good enough for the Gators to advance, but it won’t be good enough to meet the expectations placed on the defending champs by the oddsmakers.

North Carolina -3.5

This is the one quadrant of the bracket that I have right in my pool. That being said, I have to fall back on my original analysis. What also makes that easy to do is the stupidity exhibited by Roy Hibbert against Vanderbilt. If the 7’2″ dude could exhibit the same smarts on the court that got him into Georgetown (he is a 1200+ SAT guy right?) I may like the Hoyas here. North Carolina has too many weapons and has shown the ability to beat a variety of teams. Both the Heels and the Hoyas did well ATS this year, going 21-13 and 20-9-2 respectively. This is the first time all year that G-town is a dog. UNC is better and will prevail, the 3.5 shouldn’t be difficult to cover either.