March 13, 2007

Devising Your Own Selection Strategy

by @ 11:59 am. Filed under Men's BB, Wagering


I honestly don’t know of a happier time of year. The weather is getting warm and the NCAA Tournament is about to start. Savor every moment as it all happens fast! The highs are high this time of year, so brace yourself for the inevitable downer that follows the tournament every year.

The Dean only fills out one bracket. I am not going to say anything negative about those that fill out multiple sheets, but The Dean only fills out one. I spent a total of 30 minutes completing this year’s bracket. On Sunday I viewed the pairings and I selected all the first round games that jumped out at me. Games I could not decide on immediately I left blank. Today I sat down to look at the blank games and I did some minor research on each. All told there were 9 first round games that I researched. My research consisted of:


It took me about 15 minutes to perform that research and make a decision on the games. I then spent about 10 minutes filling in the rest of the bracket, taking no longer than 7-10 seconds to arrive at a decision or moving on to another game and coming back. I kept in mind past observations and conclusions I had drawn, i.e. the Big East is better than the Big 10. If teams from those conferences were playing each other and all other things were equal, I went with the Big East team.

My philosophy is that there are so many unknowns in a tournament like this that to spend hours crunching numbers, looking at match-ups, etc. is a waste of time. You could do all that work, spend hours reviewing and still be wrong. Your chances do not improve with additional research. I have seen enough basketball and been around the sport long enough to have confidence in any conclusion I draw. Lastly, I did not look to pick upsets. By looking at the games objectively, you will pick upsets without having to scour the sheet trying to decide which 12 seed you like.

I encourage you to devise your own strategy, one that encompasses the items you feel are important. Be consistent in your methodology. Don’t be swayed by what the loudest guy in the office is saying. If you feel an upset, take it. If you don’t, don’t. Nothing is worse than following bad advice. Decide for yourself. If you are a complete novice and are participating just for the hell of it, have fun. Pick teams you like. If you really don’t know what you are doing than your insight isn’t going to be useful, so don’t waste your time trying to cram basketball knowledge. Pick teams based on their colors, or their mascots, why not?!?!

When you are done with your sheet, review it. If you have all 12 seeds in the Final Four you may want to reconsider. There should be a nice spread of seeds (ha, ha) across the board. Rarely do all #1 seeds make it to the Final Four; rarely do no #1 seeds make it to the Final Four. As long as your sheet doesn’t consist of one upset after another, you stand a good chance of competing for some prize money.

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