Just two weeks ago the snow was falling and March Madness had everyone excited that their bracket had no blemishes. Then the first game tipped off and all hell broke loose. All 1s and 2s in the Final Four this year but still full of many surprises. This year’s tournament seemed to lack something in my estimation. Not sure if it was the lack of huge upset, or perhaps it was that buzzer-beaters were at a minimum. One thing that always seems to hold true highly ranked team’s near-elimination experiences being some sort of sign of them not looking back. Both Ohio St and Georgetown fit that criteria, and both won those games thanks to controversial no-calls. Both of tonight’s matchups also feature rematches games played in last year’s tournament. G-town handled the Buckeyes in the second round while Florida hammered UCLA in the championship game. Here is The Dean’s take on tonight’s games:
We have big-man versus big-man, Oden versus Hibbert, and great guards squaring off. The officiating is going to have some bearing on this outcome in terms of how much banging they allow inside. I am not sure Hibbert can match Oden’s strength, but should the game turn into a slugfest anything the Hoyas lose on the inside they gain with their big, strong, athletic guards. Overall I believe the Hoyas have put together more impressive wins against better teams all season long and the fact that they are favored today tells me that the smart money is on Georgetown. I will gladly give the point and take G-town to advance to the Championship game.
I am surprised that the line is as low as it is in the UCLA-Florida game. I read an article on ESPN.com comparing this game to the 1992 Duke-UNLV rematch from 1991’s championship game where UNLV crushed Duke. The difference tonight is that Florida returns all their starters and even more importantly, Florida isn’t UNLV. Only having to give 3 points to a team from the Pac-10 is almost enough to make me wager huge. Everyone is wondering about distractions for the Gators with Kentucky’s classless move on announcing they are going to try and steal Coach Donovan from UF. That won’t be a distraction, except to those bettors that think it gives the Bruins some advantage. Florida is too good in all facets of the game, and won’t lose tonight. Even a tight game will be won by more than 3. I am taking the Gators and giving the points.
Amidst the winding down of basketball and the starting-up of baseball, the NFL announced the five-game featured television schedule for the opening of the 2007 season yesterday. One game in particular made me chuckle. Here is the schedule:
Aside from the Cardinals-49ers game, all the games have some shine to them. The schedule also means we are going to pick up right where we left off, all Mannings all the time.
Back in January I wrote a satirical piece about how we can not get away from the Mannings, (Click here for entire article). I am not complaining as much as I am saying, and its not the Mannings fault that one son is the defending champ and the other plays in the largest market (well Eli in NY sort of is the Manning’s fault), the point is we will again be faced with a non-stop barrage of Peyton, Eli and Archie. Again, I’m not complaining, I’m just saying.
An 0-2 day yesterday has me a little down this AM, but not so much. I am admittedly weak on basketball, not from a lack of knowledge but from fear. Basketball, especially college and especially more the NCAA tournament makes scares me. As those of you that are in tune to how your own mind works, you will undoubtedly know that when you enter in to something with reservation and fear, the outcome is never as good as when the same situation is entered into with a clear mind and confidence. Many gamblers enter all their wagers with fear and uncertainty and their outcome never meets their desires. Those of us that have been able to temper the negative qualities with self-control on the amount wagered are able to maintain peace of mind and a somewhat level head. Those of you that are not able to do so, and you know who you are, force yourself into the roller-coaster of elation and desperation. That roller coaster is very unattractive to others, and more importantly is not good for your person or your purse.
My Memphis pick causes me no concern, as betting on Ohio St. is like investing in oil stocks. If it doesn’t bother you, then go ahead, but for this guy I don’t like having my money behind those that are corrupt and dirty. The UCLA/Kansas game however has me upset. Upset with myself. The reason for my self-loathing this morning is that I made the choice of Kansas out of ignorance, and I allowed my bias against PAC-10 schools to cloud my judgment. Had I kept a clear mind and fallen back on the very simple guideline of Experience when picking games, I would’ve taken the Bruins. UCLA has more players that have been playing for 2+ years, they have had more success in the tournament in recent years and the Big 12 is not any better than the PAC-10. As mentioned previously, and above, I am a bit ignorant on the college basketball landscape if for no other reason than I really can’t devote my time, attention and energy to games the entire season. I honestly don’t believe one does need to follow the basketball season the same way one must follow a football season, but still, I am closer to ignorant than I am to wise in that arena. When ignorance is present, bias will ultimately rule the day and that is what happened yesterday.
The point I want to emphasize is, establish the guidelines that are important to you and stick with them. Remove bias and emotion when deciding, always fall back on the general principles you find important. Had I followed my own advice I would have emerged from yesterday 1-1 instead of 0-2.
Enough of the historical analysis ,on to the next play:
I am not calling for an upset here, I just think the Ducks will keep this close. Florida hasn’t been covering lines all year, going 14-15-1 ATS on the season. Oregon meanwhile is shooting the ball well and there is nothing to indicate that will stop today. Oregon has covered 8 of their last 9 and Florida seems perfectly content with just doing what it takes to win games. That may be good enough for the Gators to advance, but it won’t be good enough to meet the expectations placed on the defending champs by the oddsmakers.
This is the one quadrant of the bracket that I have right in my pool. That being said, I have to fall back on my original analysis. What also makes that easy to do is the stupidity exhibited by Roy Hibbert against Vanderbilt. If the 7′2″ dude could exhibit the same smarts on the court that got him into Georgetown (he is a 1200+ SAT guy right?) I may like the Hoyas here. North Carolina has too many weapons and has shown the ability to beat a variety of teams. Both the Heels and the Hoyas did well ATS this year, going 21-13 and 20-9-2 respectively. This is the first time all year that G-town is a dog. UNC is better and will prevail, the 3.5 shouldn’t be difficult to cover either.
Went 1-3 last night and was two points away from being 3-1, such is the life of basketball wagering. I am a bit uncomfortable in the basketball wagering world, due to the huge impact of garbage points. Take the Florida/Butler game last night. For those of us that took Florida, we had no right t be in the running for a win as the game wound down. The Gators were not 10 points better than Butler, yet there we stood on the verge of stealing one all based on whether or not the losing team backs off when the game is obviously decided, or keeps fouling in desperation. Its all part of the game, but to me it feels like a part that is so out of any sort of analytical control that it makes me uncomfortable.
I really enjoy seeing certain teams lose. USC is one of them. Nice choke job last night by the Trojans. It rivals the choke job that Tennessee performed the night before. Ever since Bruce Pearl painted himself for a Vols women’s game, I have felt disdain for him, which upsets me. I always liked his enthusiasm, and thought he did a great job at UW-Milwaukee and also at Tennessee. But Bruce, have some self-respect and put your damn shirt on.
After tonight’s games there will be two of the Final Four decided. Here is my take on the games.
Ohio St is another team I love to see lose. If you think my tune is suddenly going to change, you are dead wrong. I will be rooting, yes rooting, for Memphis today. Aside from wanting to see the Suckeyes go down, the Tigers have found there way into my heart. They play an exciting style of ball and play with a ton of heart. Let’s see if OSU’s guards can keep up with the Tigers’ speed.
And a quick not to John Calipari, please don’t leave Memphis. Kentucky is played out and those hillbillies don’t deserve to have a coach of your caliber. Let those racist hicks wallow in their own filth.
I just don’t see UCLA being able to play with Kansas. Granted the Bruins have been proving me wrong all along, but so has Kansas. This game has me undecided but I am going to lay down on the Jayhawks. Their size and athleticism make the difference for me.
How does that cheesy saying go, “When you lose, don’t lose the lesson” or something like that? The lesson I am taking from last night’s two losses are summed up by two performances. Two weeks ago Aaron Gray messed the bed against Georgetown and scored only 6 points. Personally I put too much stock in that kid, a 7′0″ Senior Center that again did nothing last night in a big game. In the Texas A&M loss, Senior leader and prolific scorer AC Law IV missed a layup late in the game that would’ve put A&M up 3 and managed only 13 points. I still believe that Senior leadership is a key ingredient to Tournament success, but when a team’s best player is a Senior that spells trouble. The reason being, if the kid is a true superstar he wouldn’t be in college for four years.
There were two victories last night, and both were great games. Southern Illinois did what it needed to and had their chances, they were an easy cover. Tennessee meanwhile is going to have a lot of sleepless nights before they get over last night’s loss to Ohio St. Regardless, it was a cover and kept me at 2-2 for the evening, with 4 more games tonight. Let’s take a look at them:
Butler has some nice wins this year, Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Purdue and Maryland. But those teams are nowhere near the caliber of Florida. George Mason had some nice wins last year too; remember what happened to them when they met Florida? Florida’s experience and poise are too much to go against so I am laying it down on Florida this evening. Remember, poise counts!
Vanderbilt’s claim to fame this year is a win over Florida. That was certainly a great accomplishment, but let’s not let that cloud our judgment. Only twice this year have the Commodores won more than two games in a row. And since January they have been on a neat little streak of winning two and then losing one. Let’s also go back to the first game of the year and Georgetown’s 16 point victory of Vanderbilt. Granted it was a long time ago, but that is some history that shouldn’t be ignored. With that said, the line is higher than I anticipated and that gives me some additional comfort in giving the points and taking the Hoyas.
This game has me a bit perplexed. Oregon started the year hot, cooled in the middle and has seemed to get hot again. UNLV meanwhile began an impressive run on their conference tournament and through the first two games of the Big Dance. UNLV is a senior dominated team but the low spread has me feeling like I am walking into a trap. Well, if I am I am not going to hesitate, I am running right through it and taking the points and the Running Rebels
USC was very impressive against Texas, but they aren’t playing a one man show tonight. The Trojans got demolished in the PAC-10 championship game but people are still raving about their win over Texas. Get over it, it wasn’t all it seemed. The Heels are legit and The Dean likes them to cover this line tonight.
It is important in life to always have something out in front of you that you are excited about. It makes the days go by in a flash and the spirit always remains high. There was no need to search for that dangling carrot this week as all you had to do was get to Thursday. Well, Thursday is here and its time to get focused on the games at hand. Below is a breakdown of tonight’s games and The Dean’s pick.
Kansas runs the floor as well as anybody which is one reason for their near 50% FG percentage. We will see of So. Illinois can find a way to limit the easy buckets and keep this game close. KU does not have a Senior on their roster, while the Salukis main players are primarily Seniors and Juniors. I am not sure that is enough for the Salukis to win this game, but I believe it will be enough to keep them in the game all night and 8.5 points is too many for the inexperienced Jayhawks to cover.
Its unfortunate for Memphis that the past week has gone down this path. The injury to Douglas-Roberts is going to cripple the Tigers and it couldn’t come at a worse time. The Aggies are an experienced team that are playing in their own backyard. On top of that, Texas A&M does just about everything better than Memphis except cause turnovers. All other statistical information points in the Aggies favor. The shoot 10% better from the foul line, they shoot 7% better from behind the arc and their FG% is 4 points higher than Memphis’. The one item in Memphis favor is their ability to cause turnovers, but it will not be enough this evening.
A very intriguing matchup as the Panthers go against their old coach. UCLA’s style does not serve as an advantage tonight and their inability to handle physical teams will do them in. Statistically neither team has a big advantage over the others. Pitt has three things working in their favor: 1) UCLA has no answer for Aaron Gray, 2) Pitt has more experience and 3) UCLA’s loss to West Virginia shows Pitt everything they need in terms of game planning. I fully expect this game to be close for the majority and then for Pitt to pull away and win by double-digits.
There is no way I am laying money on the Buckeyes. Ohio St. is on my short list of most despised athletic programs and I have bad mouthed them since January and will continue to do so. They are bandits in all things and their alums are hypocritical idiots. Were is the outrage at the Buckeyes dismal graduation rate? What would be fair is for the Big 10 to put Ohio St. on notice that if they don’t clean up their act they will be out of the conference. From their stupid nut mascot to Jim Tressler’s pedophile sweater vests to Thad Matta chewing gum off the floor, I loathe that phony university and will never support them. That being said, Tennessee does have a chance tonight and OSU is the most likely #1 seed to fall. Lets hope they do, and that they never get back up.
The first weekend has passed with barely an upset. Xavier was on the brink of pulling the upset of the tournament and making The Dean look like a genius (see post from 3/9/07) but a missed foul shot, followed by a deep but uncontested three doomed the Musketeers and sent this guy on a search for an elixir.
In my opinion there was only one true upset in the first two rounds, and that was UNLV’s win over Wisconsin. Even that upset wasn’t all too shocking when you consider that UNLV is a senior dominated team and has a point guard that is not only the coaches son but also a 5th year player. What that says is, the Rebs have some experience, and that can’t be overlooked this time of year. On top of that, the Runnin’ Rebels came into the NCAAs hot and have kept it going. But aside from them, I will argue that none of the other lower seeded wins over higher seeded teams were actually upsets.
The ‘biggest’ upsets in comparing seeds were VCU over Duke and Wintrop of Notre Dame. If you lined the players of both teams up, ignored their uniforms and judged them solely on their talent, the best players were on VCU and Winthrop. This was without question a bad year for Duke and to be honest, they didn’t deserve a #6 seed. Is it really an upset if most people predicted it? I don’t think so. That segues nicely into the Winthrop-Notre Dame game. During the regular season the Eagles lost only 4 games, all on the road and to the following teams: North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M. There is no shame in those 4 losses. The argument can also be made that Winthrop deserved to be seeded higher. An 8 seed for this team would not have been out of the question. Winthrop also had more tournament experience than the Fighting Irish, so to call this an upset, again, if you have to go ahead, but it really wasn’t.
Now on to the Sweet 16 and The Dean’s prediction of which teams will emerge and square off in the Final Four.
The Gators have won four of the last five post-season tournaments they have participated in; this team knows how to win at this time of year. Just like the New England Patriots, how do you go against Florida? Butler’s physical style may keep the game close, but Purdue was a physical team and the Gators eventually shed them. Neither Oregon nor UNLV has what it takes to knock off the Gators.
UCLA prides itself on ugly wins. The Bruins next game is against the King of Ugly Wins. The Panthers are scrappy, resilient and have a big body in the middle (Aaron Gray) that will cause problems for UCLA. Let’s also remember back to UCLA’s lone game against a Big East foe this year, a loss at West Virginia. What carries Pitt passed UCLA will be what serves them well in the next round against either Southern Illinois or Kansas, and that is there defense.
The Tar Heels matchup very well with USC and will then face either Georgetown or Vanderbilt. The Trojans played a great game against Texas, but North Carolina is not a one-man show like the Longhorns. I expect UNC to meet Georgetown in the next round, and that will be the premier game of the Elite 8. The Hoyas size, athleticism and quickness may prove too much for UNC but Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas 7’ 2” center has been proving to be too clumsy and awkward to be the difference maker he should be. Jeff Green is an awesome player and will show everyone his game, but The Dean sees the Tar Heels coming out of the swamplands and heading to Atlanta.
The Aggies are essentially playing at home while Memphis needs to find a way to overcome the injury to leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts. It hasn’t been announced whether he will play or not, but even if he does he will be nowhere near 100% which is where Memphis needs to be in order to win this game. It is too bad he is hurt, as this great game will be a little diminished. Ohio St. didn’t deserve to win against Xavier, but that doesn’t change the fact that they have moved on. Their escape on Saturday is sometimes indicative of luck being on a team’s side which is never a bad thing to have, especially this time of year. Should the Buckeyes defeat Tennessee, they will be no match for A&M’s athleticism and defense. Xavier showed how to play Oden, and the Aggies have the people to do the same and advance to Atlanta.
Below are my winners for today. Yesterday turned out to be a 10-6 day, not great but not horrible. Oral Roberts hurt as I had them going one more round, beating Vanderbilt. Aside from that, no other loss of mine extends past this round.
To reiterate, the teams below are who The Dean has in his bracket. Point spreads are not taken into consideration with these picks. I will post my Best Bets a little later.
I welcome your feedback, comments, ridicule and the like on any and all picks. To do so, click the Comments link at the bottom of the post.
East Rutherford
Texas
USC
San Antonio
Tennessee
Virginia
Creighton
Memphis
St. Louis
Florida
Arizona
Notre Dame
Oregon
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin
San Jose
Kansas
Villanova
Virginia Tech
Southern Illinois
The games are in full swing and there is some good early action. We spoke yesterday about The Dean’s bracket picks, and today I want to share the best bets for the remainder of the day. Unfortunately I was not able to get word out about Louisville in time for a wager to be placed on them, but there is still some good action to be had yet.
Oral Roberts +7 
Washington State comes into this tournament with the most success it has ever had. I am a big believer that being there before matters, as does the contrary statement, not being there before matters. Washington State is a well rounded basketball team that overachieved this year and now faces a team in Oral Roberts that likes to get up and down the court. The Cougars of Washington State will have their athleticism challenged. Oral Roberts can also boast of having two 2,000 point scorers, both seniors. That senior leadership is a great commodity in tournament play. I took Oral Roberts to win this game, and I really like the Golden Eagles getting 7 points.
Texas A&M -13 
The Aggies can score and are very athletic. The Ivy League always gives teams from the bigger conferences fits, but this Penn team likes to play a similar style to A&M, which is actually to the Quakers detriment. The large line tells The Dean that Vegas too likes A&M, so I will play them at three stars.
Gonzaga +1
I don’t like the Big 10 this year and really don’t like this Indiana team. Gonzaga has been in the tournament for many consecutive seasons and over the past 10 years has been the better basketball program. The Zags had some turbulence a few months back losing their leading scorer but have rebounded and found themselves. Indiana doesn’t deserve to be in the tournament, and we saw what happens to undeserving teams earlier today when Stanford got hammered by Louisville. I am playing the Zags at 5-stars.
I am publishing the winners I have selected in tomorrow’s games. If you have no time to fill out your own bracket, or are so desperate and lost that you can’t do it yourself, contact The Dean to negotiate a deal to acquire all of my picks. I am open to a flat fee and/or a percentage of any winnings. I will publish my Friday winners tomorrow.
The headings below are the names of the regions. Keep in mind this is not where these games are being played. If you take travel into consideration do not base it off of the name of the region. Good luck and have fun!
I welcome your feedback, comments, ridicule and the like on any and all picks. To do so, click the Comments link at the bottom of the post.
East Rutherford
North Carolina
Marquette
Vanderbilt
Oral Roberts
Texas Tech
Georgetown
San Antonio
Ohio State
Xavier
Louisville
Texas A&M
St. Louis
Butler
Maryland
San Jose
Duke
Pittsburgh
Gonzaga
UCLA
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