Super Bowl XLI: Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears @ Miami, FL

Colts -6.5

Super Bowl XLI, for those that are Roman Numeric Illiterate, XLI is 41. You see, X=10, L=50 and I=1. When a lower numeral appears in front of a higher numeral, you subtract the lower amount from the higher amount. So 10 from 50 is 40. Get it? The only other rule is you don’t put more than three of the same numeral consecutively. That is why 41 isn’t XXXXI, because that would make 4 consecutive X’s. And that sort of stuff just didn’t fly in the Roman times.

Ah, numbers. Don’t you just love ‘em?! I know I do; though they can also drive you nuts being that there is no end to numbers and no one way to crunch them. We can use them to justify, to discredit or just to play with. The first number that struck me in this year’s Super Bowl was how high the line is. It opened at 7 and can be found anywhere in the 6-7 range. In looking back at this season, the Bears were only dogs twice, once in New England where they were getting 3.5 and once in New York where they were getting a point from the Giants. My gambling gut tells me to go with the high number when it is higher than my own, but since I have had time to analyze other numbers and thoughts, I did.

In the last 21 Super Bowls there have only been 4 spreads that were below a touch down (6) so a TD spread shouldn’t be taken as such a big deal in my opinion. Second, the average point spread in the last 21 Super Bowls is 8.6, so this line is, with some books, 2 full points beneath the average. Another indication that the line may not be as large as it seems.

In The Dean’s opinion this tells me that the line isn’t off, but rather my perception of the line is off. I now feel recalibrated and confident to continue my analysis unencumbered by the thoughts of an exaggerated line and a Vegas set-up.

The Indianapolis defense has gotten rave reviews for the drastic turnaround since the playoffs began. The Dean is of the belief that in their first two that the Chiefs and Ravens showed no imagination and thought they could just run the ball down at will. And when they couldn’t they were unable or unwilling to switch modes. I still can’t put my finger on why the Colt defense has gotten tough, but perhaps I didn’t give enough credence to the talking heads when they were touting what a difference Bob Sanders was going to make back in his Safety spot, but perhaps that should be re-evaluated. More to the point, The Dean doesn’t see Lovie Smith’s offense showing any creativity either and all the talk about the Bears is their running game, well, that’s what KC and Baltimore thought also.

In keeping on the Bears offense, against the Saints they ended the first half by running the ball right down the field but chose to start the second half throwing on almost every first down. It allowed the Saints to climb right back in the game and if it weren’t for a stalled drive that ended in a missed FG, the Bears would’ve relinquished their lead and the game would’ve had a much different complexion. The safety on an Intentional Grounding and a mis-played ball by the Saints CB changed the game and gives a false impression that the Bears offense actually did something in the NFC Championship game. I certainly don’t expect Lovie to all of a sudden find his inner-offensive genius and there is a reason he is the lowest paid coach in the NFL.

The Bears defense has been getting a lot of credit for being great, and the comparisons to the 1985 Bears are rampant. Let’s all take a step back and have a glass of reality. This Bears defense does not compare in any way, ANY WAY, to the ’85 Bears defense. The only similarity is the uniforms. I also don’t want to hear about how the Bears shut down the highest ranked offense in the Saints. Let’s not forget how bad the NFC was this year and who the Saints put all their amazing numbers up against. This Bears defense is not as good as the Ravens and the Colts moved the football in Baltimore even if they didn’t score any TDs. The Colts scored 38 points on a good Patriot defense and could’ve kept on scoring at will. The Colts are healthy and have too many weapons. They can go vertical, they can go short, they can run, they can control the ball and the can score quick. The Bears can’t. The Bears rely on turnovers and special teams. And while Devon Hester is awesome, special teams are not something you can rely on and The Dean expect turnovers to be minimized, despite the possible bad weather, as the NFL allowed the game balls to be used during practice this week.

The Colts have conquered their enemy in the Patriots and seemed to have fixed the one flaw they appeared to have. There are a few mystic Florida, Peyton Manning, Miami, Baltimore Colt superstitions one can try and put their flag in if you want to find a reason to take the Bears, but Miami is also the one place that even the 1985 Chicago Bears couldn’t win.

The Dean is going out with a lot riding on today. I am playing the Colts as a 5-star game giving the points. For those looking to play the money-line, one stat for you: favored teams are 16-5 straight-up in the last 21 Super Bowls.