I will never understand the hiring practices of some teams in the National Football League. After coming off a 14-2 regular season with the most dynamic player in the game; a good, young QB; and the best defense in the NFL, the San Diego Chargers replaced Marty Schottenheimer with Norv Tuner. The same Norv Turner whose head coaching record is 58-82-1. That record spans two different teams, the Washington Redskins and the Oakland Raiders, and granted he may not have inherited the best football teams when he took over those two squads, but he knew what he was getting himself into. No one forced him to take those jobs and a good decision maker would have seen what he had to work with and decided against having his name associated with either of those teams.
Perhaps the Chargers are really into the environment and feel they should not only recycle cans and bottles, but also head coaches. Norv Turner has had his greatest success as a coach while employed as a Coordinator, and there is no shame in that. He rightly received many accolades for the Cowboys winning two Super Bowls while he was the Dallas’ OC. He is also rightly credited with grooming Troy Aikman into the Hall of Fame QB he ended up being. Norv also deserves a lot of credit for being the OC of the San Francisco 49ers this past year. A year when everyone was picking SF to be at the bottom of the division, they actually competed for a playoff spot up through the final weeks. Turner again made great use of his offensive talent; Frank Gore emerged as one of the best running backs in the game, and Alex Smith performed at a higher level than many anticipated. Credit Norv Turner for being a huge part of it all.
I would see no issue with hiring Coach Turner to run your offense, but not to run the whole team. Turner thrives on teaching and nurturing his QBs, he thrives on play calling and getting the most out of his offensive talent. He will not be able to work in the same capacity being the Head Coach. The game just isn’t set up like that.
In their attempt to grow from a great year and maximize their offensive prowess, the Chargers have chosen a route that essentially hired a great chef to be their restaurant manager. I always like to say, “don’t ask your tackle to throw the football†and the Chargers will pay a heavy price for doing just for not heeding those words.
NFL: Coach Marty Schottenheimer and General Manager AJ Smith couldn’t get along, so Marty is out. He is out after going 14-2 and suffering another playoff loss that adds to Marty’s post-season misery. Just as it was unreasonable to say John Elway wasn’t a great QB before winning a Super Bowl, or Dan Marino for never winning one, the failure of Marty’s teams in the post-season do not relegate him to the Bad Coach category. He is a good coach that has suffered come tough losses. This year the toughest loss wasn’t to the Patriots, it was to the Cowboys for taking Wade Phillips and the Dolphins for taking Cam Cameron. Once those two left it appears that there was no way Marty and AJ were going to get along well enough to find replacements that would satisfy them both. Marty will land somewhere and have more success, because that’s what he does. . . . Wade Phillips seems to be a great fit for the Cowboys. Not only is he a Texan (not the Houston football team variety), but he has a personality that should go well with the rest of the team and he has a successful track record to boot. And by rest of the team I mean TO. Tony Romo has an even personality and TO supported him after Romo’s fumbled snap ruined the Cowboys chances of advancing in the playoffs. That relationship will be the most crucial as it has always been TO vs the QB that was the downfall. First he turned on Garcia, then he turned on McNabb. They say three’s a charm, and I find it hard to believe TO can learn any lessons, but a guy like Phillips should be able to facilitate a positive enough relationship that the Cowboys will be a team to be reckoned with next year. . . . NCAA Basketball: ACC: It is just about time to actually pay attention to college basketball. I am not one to pay any attention to the rankings as they don’t mean a thing. The only contributing factor they do have is to put a bulls-eye on the back of highly ranked teams. There is nothing wrong with it, but it doesn’t interest me much. What does interest me is Duke @ Boston College tonight. With Virginia Tech’s second defeat of North Carolina, BC can open up a 1.5 game lead on the Tarheels, the Hokies and the Cavaliers. Duke is desperate for a win to break their losing streak, but it won’t come easy tonight. . . . Big 12: The Big 12 saw a nice upset last night with the Red Raiders of Texas Tech coming from behind to defeat Texas A&M. The Aggies are a team that I feel will have a good run in the Tournament despite their stumble last night. . . . Anytime a team has a player that can carry them they stand a good chance of getting hot and making a run at the title. The Texas Longhorns fit that criteria with their super-star Freshman, Kevin Durant. The Horns can score, their problem has been stopping other teams from scoring. If they get a good draw, look for them to go deep this year. . . . Big EastThe Big East is full of very good teams, but lacking any great ones. By my estimations, they have 6 teams that are capable of winning at least 2 tournament games, but those same 6 could also be knocked out early. I know this sounds ridiculous, and it won’t happen, but there are 12 teams in the Big East that have a shot at being in the NCAA Tournament. The remainder of the regular season and the Big East Tournament are going to play a major role. My prediction is that there will be 7 teams from the Big East qualifying for the Big Dance. . . . Big 10: I find it really hard to care about the Big 10. Wisconsin is a nice story and a very good team. Ohio St is overrated. They have had 3 games this year against the upper-echelon and they’ve lost all three. They have a ton of wins and a pretty little ranking, but don’t count on them going any deeper than one or two wins in the Tournament. . . . SEC: Florida has been so dominant that they are almost not even on people’s radar screens. That will change of course, and the Gators will go deep again if not all the way. . . The SEC seems like a great conference, but I wonder if it is not a bit overrated. The SEC West has Alabama and Mississippi on top, both at 5-5. The SEC East isn’t much more impressive except for Florida’s 10-0 mark. Is this a sign of very good teams all knocking each other off? Or the sign of mediocrity? If its mediocrity then maybe I should qualify my earlier comments on how deep the Gators will go. . . .PAC-10: Washington St is the team out of this conference surprising everyone. I have my doubts on how strong the Pac-10 is from top to bottom. Oregon looked strong but wasn’t able to win some games that they needed to have in order to be considered an elite. UCLA has talent, but their loss at West Virginia, while not a bad loss, shouldn’t have happened to them. There are 7 teams in the Pac-10 with a chance to win 20 games. My bet is that there will be no more than 4 Pac-10 teams in the Tournament.
There are three coaches in college football that are primed to dominate the college football landscape like it has never been before. Each of them seems to have been born to lead the teams they are leading and each of them has been successful beyond anyone’s reasonable expectations. The three I am talking about are Pete Carroll at USC, Urban Meyer at Florida and Greg Schiano at Rutgers. All thee are young, energetic, creative, personable, able to relate to their kids but still seem wise beyond their years. If you believe in destiny then these three men were destined to end up exactly where they are.
Both Carroll and Schiano have been courted by other schools and the NFL in recent years but both would be foolish to leave where they are. It is only a matter of time before Meyer is also courted; this past year was only his second at UF. All coaches know that job jumping comes with the territory. Some jump before they are pushed, some jump because it is too enticing to stay where they are, but there are no jobs in this world that are better than the jobs these three currently hold.
Carroll has been in the NFL and knows what it is all about; there should be no enticement for him. He is a typical California guy (born, raised and went to college in CA) and has a personality that fits USC like a glove, no OJ pun intended.
Schiano had the carrot of Miami dangled in front of him and passed it up without any problems. There is nothing he can do at ‘The U’ that hasn’t already been done. He has already achieved more net gains at Rutgers than are even possible at Miami. While some expressed shock, they obviously don’t know what motivates Coach Schiano. He dreamt of making Rutgers into a national power ever since he was a kid, and now he is on the verge of doing just that. When he does, he will become to Rutgers what Joe Paterno is to Penn St.
Could Urban be enticed by the NFL? I guess anything is possible, but Urban is a stereo-typical college football coach and why would he leave Gainesville? There is no reason. And if he has been paying attention to the Nick Saban saga, he knows that the NFL is such a vastly different beast than college football.
These three guys are building dynasties. And all the factors are working in their favor. They are geographically diverse, they are not natural rivals of each other, they have many, many years ahead of them and they are in talent-laden states where, if they only recruit their state well, they will always have talented teams.
One other factor in their favors is the conditions of their biggest regional rivals. UCLA’s Karl Dorrell has done a nice job so far, even upset USC this year, but that is not going to last. UCLA is a basketball school and Pete will get any player he wants over UCLA any day of the week. Urban meanwhile is seeing the Gators two biggest in-state rivals going in the opposite direction. FSU and Miami have major troubles and those troubles couldn’t come at a better time for Gator Nation. Schiano meanwhile has Penn St, which will struggle as long questions linger about Paterno until he finally steps down. In his conference he has Louisville which has a new coach this year, and West Virgina where Rich Rodriguez hurt himself when he interviewed for the Alabama job.
USC, Florida and Rutgers; these three programs are here to stay and these three gentlemen should plant their roots and declare that they will never leave, never ever even think about leaving. There is no reason to, for each they have found their destinies and their destinies have found them.
College football just loves rankings. They will rank anything in college football. Teams, conferences, players, fans, and just about anything else you can think of. Yesterday brought about more rankings, this time ranking teams and how they did on Signing Day. The day when high school football players all over the country, who of course have been ranked, sign their name on the dotted line (are any lines on dotted anymore, were they ever?) and commit to the football program of their choice. At least we think its their choice, maybe it was their father’s choice, or their financial advisor’s choice, either way they choose. Some did what they said they would, others changed their minds. Once the ranked players ended up selecting, we were left with, you guessed it, some rankings.
Here is the Top 10 as ranked by ESPN.com:
To see ESPN’s detailed Top 25, click here:Click here.
Notice a trend in the Top 10? 5 SEC schools, half the Top 10, not bad for what is already the best conference in college football.
Some other thoughts: Notre Dame still ranked high despite losing three verbal commitments. . . Ohio St is not in the Top 10; as a matter of fact, they were 20th and Illinois ranked higher. . . Speaking of Illinois, ESPN has them ranked 12th. People in the Big 10 are accusing Ron Zook of doing something underhanded. Haven’t heard anything concrete, so shame on them for even going there. . . Only 3 Big 10 schools in the Top 20 (Penn St is 21), further evidence of that conference’s fall from grace. . . Butch Davis got North Carolina a great recruiting class. Not sure that will translate into victories and I am not sure anyone at Chapel Hill cares, but he still did it. . . Pretty miraculous that Miami finished ranked 10th. That green and orange U still carries weight. . . Florida St. was really hurt by their inability to replace their coaching staff. Further evidence of how important assistance coaches are. . . Michael Lewis, in his book “The Blindsideâ€, talks about what a hick Phil Fulmer is, it’s not really relevant to this conversation I just wanted to bring it up because I believe it. . . Lastly, I can’t think of a reason for either Pete Carrol or Urban Meyer to ever leave their respective employers. Those two are sitting prettier than any coaches have been that I can think of. Young, energetic, kids love ‘em, successful, in hotbeds of talent, the list goes on and on. Might as well rank those two teams 1 and 2 right now.
The Dean hit 53% of his games this year, winning 76, losing 67 and pushing on 7. The win totals per NCAA and the NFL were 50.7% and 55% respectively with the breakdown as follows:
NCAA: 32 wins, 31 losses, 3 pushes
NFL: 44 wins, 36 losses, 4 pushes
It is said that one must hit about 53% of their wagers in order to make a profit, and be closer to 55% in order make a ‘comfortable living’. My first problem with that is, whose definition of comfort are we going by? My second problem is that it assumes even weight being give to all wagers. In no way do all wagers deserve the same weight. That is why I make use of my Star Ranking Method to decide how much to wager per game. By effectively implementing the Method I was able to realize earnings of 26.25% on my NCAA games and 70% on my NFL games and overall earnings of for 52.5%. My original pool of money for this season was $5,000, $2,000 for NCAA and $3,000 for the NFL; my earnings totaled $2,625.00. It will be awfully tough to find an investment that recognizes that return and I was able to do it in only 5 months. Keep in mind that I was able to achieve that return not having the greatest of years in terms of Ws and Ls. Where I made up for my mediocre overall percentage was in my Star Rankings.
When looking at only games ranked 3-stars or higher, my overall earnings go to 65.40% (48% for NCAA and 77% for NFL). Some may ask, why play anything lower than a 3-star? and I agree. One reason I played so many 1 and 2 star games this year is that I wanted to publish my opinion on some high profile games. There were also times that I just wanted to have some action on a game and didn’t feel very confident in either team. The lower Star Ratings allow you the freedom to have some action without jeopardizing your earnings. You may not use the freedom because of web-content but you may use it to play a Monday Night game or to place a wager on your favorite team. It grants you freedom to bet, without killing your bankroll.
Below are the percentages I applied to the various Stars; keep in mind that conventional wisdom from professional handicappers when giving advice to bettors is to not wager more than 2% – 5% of your bankroll on any one game. My Star Ratings contradict that, but for good reason. The reason is I have faith in the processes and procedures I use to arrive at what is the appropriate rating to give for each game.
These percentages can be modified to your tastes, but in order for them to be truly effective there needs to be a difference that matters between the different Star levels. To better understand the Star Rating Method and to learn how to establish solid criteria that you can have faith in go to the Star Rating Method section of the site.
There are times in life when events unfold in such a manner that we are justified in thinking we are tuned in on some higher level. Everything during yesterday’s Super Bowl went exactly as it was meant to. There were no surprises. Everyone did what they are known for and that made the outcome be what all sound judgment said it would be.
A quick recap of all the events that were true to form.
Devin Hester got the Bears off on the right foot and proved what everyone already knew. He is fast, he is dangerous and he can change a game. His kickoff gave Bears fans a reason to believe and kept the game close enough that casual observers kept watching.
The Colts racked up yards, and a lot of them. But the Bear defense held enough that there were more FGs than TDs and the game was within reach late in the 4th quarter.
I wrote yesterday that the Colts can run, throw short, throw medium and go deep. They did it all yesterday and took all the short passes to Joseph Addai that the Bears allowed. The Colts have too many weapons and always seemed to find the open man.
There was only one game plan for the Bears offense and that was to establish the run. They are not good enough in the passing game to even trick the opponent into thinking they might throw the ball. The Colts defense is good enough to stop a one-dimensional offense and they did.
All of Rex Grossman’s inadequacies came through last night. He fumbled 3 snaps, threw two interceptions and when given the opportunity to lead the team to a wining score he promptly threw the game clinching, cover clinching interception. There is no excuse for the fumbled snaps. Every time the Bears would get something going, Rex would give it back. It was only a matter of time before this glaring weakness on the Bears’ roster reared its ugly head. Now everyone repeat after me, Rex is no good. Rex is no good. Rex is no good. Remember Bear fans, Rex not only cost your team the game, he cost you a cover.
Colts -6.5 
Super Bowl XLI, for those that are Roman Numeric Illiterate, XLI is 41. You see, X=10, L=50 and I=1. When a lower numeral appears in front of a higher numeral, you subtract the lower amount from the higher amount. So 10 from 50 is 40. Get it? The only other rule is you don’t put more than three of the same numeral consecutively. That is why 41 isn’t XXXXI, because that would make 4 consecutive X’s. And that sort of stuff just didn’t fly in the Roman times.
Ah, numbers. Don’t you just love ‘em?! I know I do; though they can also drive you nuts being that there is no end to numbers and no one way to crunch them. We can use them to justify, to discredit or just to play with. The first number that struck me in this year’s Super Bowl was how high the line is. It opened at 7 and can be found anywhere in the 6-7 range. In looking back at this season, the Bears were only dogs twice, once in New England where they were getting 3.5 and once in New York where they were getting a point from the Giants. My gambling gut tells me to go with the high number when it is higher than my own, but since I have had time to analyze other numbers and thoughts, I did.
In the last 21 Super Bowls there have only been 4 spreads that were below a touch down (6) so a TD spread shouldn’t be taken as such a big deal in my opinion. Second, the average point spread in the last 21 Super Bowls is 8.6, so this line is, with some books, 2 full points beneath the average. Another indication that the line may not be as large as it seems.
In The Dean’s opinion this tells me that the line isn’t off, but rather my perception of the line is off. I now feel recalibrated and confident to continue my analysis unencumbered by the thoughts of an exaggerated line and a Vegas set-up.
The Indianapolis defense has gotten rave reviews for the drastic turnaround since the playoffs began. The Dean is of the belief that in their first two that the Chiefs and Ravens showed no imagination and thought they could just run the ball down at will. And when they couldn’t they were unable or unwilling to switch modes. I still can’t put my finger on why the Colt defense has gotten tough, but perhaps I didn’t give enough credence to the talking heads when they were touting what a difference Bob Sanders was going to make back in his Safety spot, but perhaps that should be re-evaluated. More to the point, The Dean doesn’t see Lovie Smith’s offense showing any creativity either and all the talk about the Bears is their running game, well, that’s what KC and Baltimore thought also.
In keeping on the Bears offense, against the Saints they ended the first half by running the ball right down the field but chose to start the second half throwing on almost every first down. It allowed the Saints to climb right back in the game and if it weren’t for a stalled drive that ended in a missed FG, the Bears would’ve relinquished their lead and the game would’ve had a much different complexion. The safety on an Intentional Grounding and a mis-played ball by the Saints CB changed the game and gives a false impression that the Bears offense actually did something in the NFC Championship game. I certainly don’t expect Lovie to all of a sudden find his inner-offensive genius and there is a reason he is the lowest paid coach in the NFL.
The Bears defense has been getting a lot of credit for being great, and the comparisons to the 1985 Bears are rampant. Let’s all take a step back and have a glass of reality. This Bears defense does not compare in any way, ANY WAY, to the ’85 Bears defense. The only similarity is the uniforms. I also don’t want to hear about how the Bears shut down the highest ranked offense in the Saints. Let’s not forget how bad the NFC was this year and who the Saints put all their amazing numbers up against. This Bears defense is not as good as the Ravens and the Colts moved the football in Baltimore even if they didn’t score any TDs. The Colts scored 38 points on a good Patriot defense and could’ve kept on scoring at will. The Colts are healthy and have too many weapons. They can go vertical, they can go short, they can run, they can control the ball and the can score quick. The Bears can’t. The Bears rely on turnovers and special teams. And while Devon Hester is awesome, special teams are not something you can rely on and The Dean expect turnovers to be minimized, despite the possible bad weather, as the NFL allowed the game balls to be used during practice this week.
The Colts have conquered their enemy in the Patriots and seemed to have fixed the one flaw they appeared to have. There are a few mystic Florida, Peyton Manning, Miami, Baltimore Colt superstitions one can try and put their flag in if you want to find a reason to take the Bears, but Miami is also the one place that even the 1985 Chicago Bears couldn’t win.
The Dean is going out with a lot riding on today. I am playing the Colts as a 5-star game giving the points. For those looking to play the money-line, one stat for you: favored teams are 16-5 straight-up in the last 21 Super Bowls.
Rutgers had a drastic turnaround, can the same happen at Temple? It is probably unfair to campare the two, as Rutgers has a lot of intangibles in their favor and Temple does not. Be that as it may, there is a good article in the New York Times today about three former Owl players playing in tomorrow’s Super Bowl. Click here to read the article.
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