January 8, 2007

Pick for Monday January 8, 2007

by @ 5:33 pm. Filed under College FB, Wagering

BCS National Championship: Florida vs Ohio St. @ Glendale, AZ

Florida +7
Well, it has taken long enough to get here that’s for sure. Aside from that, not much else is so certain. College football has so many variables and intangibles; throw in the extreme layoff for the two teams squaring off tonight and the waters become that much more muddied. Ohio St last played on November 18; Florida last played on December 2. That is an eternity and it will have an impact tonight.

It goes without saying that both Florida and Ohio St. had impressive years, but was one more impressive than the other? I think so. It is generally accepted, and firmly believed by The Dean, that the SEC is better than the Big 10. In addition, the Gators had to go through a Conference Championship while the Buckeyes didn’t even play a full Big 10 slate. (OSU didn’t play Wisconsin or Purdue.) Florida had 10 opponents go to bowls and those teams were a collective 7-3 in their bowl games. Ohio St. played 7 teams that went to bowls, those teams went a collective 3-4. When you take a deeper look at the 7 bowl teams that OSU beat, there isn’t an abundance of great wins. Yes, they crushed many teams but scoring 54 points against Northwestern doesn’t register with The Dean. Texas was a nice win, but it was the Longhorns second game of the year breaking in a new QB. Penn St. had a chance to beat the Buckeyes in Columbus before Anthony Morelli melted down and threw two INTs that were returned for TDs. They beat Michigan in a classic game, but how good is Michigan? According to USC, not all that. OSU’s other bowl-team wins came against Cincinnati, No. Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota. Go ahead, get excited about those wins. Florida meanwhile played an SEC schedule and suffered only one loss, at Auburn.

Florida’s defense is physical enough to play with the Buckeyes and the speed advantage OSU had all year will not exist tonight. Its not a Big 10 team on the other side of the ball, it’s the SEC champion and as tough as it may be to go against a team that has won 19 games in a row, that’s exactly what The Dean is doing.

Florida has found a way to win all year. Whether it be blocked FGs or punt returns, they have found a way. That certainly doesn’t guarantee a win, but expect tonight to be tight and once it is, I like the team that has been there before. I am not declaring FLA a winner, but don’t be surprised if they do as they have all year and find a way. The Dean will take the points and the Gators and play it for 3-stars.

REVIEW: Florida 41 – Ohio St. 14

As previewed.

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