Saints +2 
One of the biggest disappointments of my life is that when the Buccaneers finally made it to a Super Bowl they had changed their uniforms. The Orange and Yellow swashbuckling Buccaneer was without a doubt my favorite NFL uniform. That statement reflects that I have not had any major disappointments in my life, that is true, but still, I loved those uniforms. Tomorrow presents an opportunity for a team that has never been to the Super Bowl to make it. While that is exciting in and of itself, that we may get to see the Saints gold and black on Super Sunday has me fired up. I want the Saints to win. I will be cheering for them. I would be pulling for them regardless of the disaster that struck New Orleans and continued to plague the people there. I like them because I love the city of New Orleans. It is a city that I long for at times. Aside from that, their unis are cool and here they are after being such a bad football organization for so long, poised to go to the Super Bowl. Throw in everything else and of course they are America’s team tomorrow.
In regards to the action on the field, here is a stat that reflects just how bad the NFC was this year. The Bears and the Saints are 1 and 2 in the NFC. The Bears opponents had a combined record of 110-146 while the Saints opponents were 118-138. The Bears played in a division where the other teams combined records were 17-31; the Saints’ division went 19-29. The Bears 13 victims this year were 84-124, while the Saints’ 10 wins were 68-92. The Bears defeats came to teams with a combined record of 26-22, while the Saints’ losses were to teams that went 50-46. Lastly, 2 of the Bears 3 losses were to AFC East teams (Patriots and Dolphins) and half of the Saints losses were to AFC North teams (Steelers, Bengals and Ravens). Each lost their season finale and the Saints lost to the Panthers twice and the Redskins once. (The second Panther loss was the Saints’ season finale).
What all these stats add up to is an absolute toss up. The line can be had anywhere from 1 point to 3 points. The weather may be a factor, but Brees played at Purdue and he won’t be fazed by it. Grossman is bad and as long as the Saints don’t let receivers run untouched down the field the Bears offense should be contained. The Bears stout defense has shown some vulnerability of late and the Saints have enough of a mix to cause them trouble. My advice is to take whoever you want to root for and play this game at a low star. The Dean will be decked in Gold and Black and taking the Saints plus whatever points are available and playing it for 2-stars.
Colts -3
These two teams doing battle is special. It is special because the same key people on both teams are still in place. This isn’t just about the Colt’s revenge; it’s about Manning and Dungy’s revenge. It’s about Brady and Belichick doing it again to those guys. The Kicker position for both these teams has been more high-profile than any other team’s in recent history; the Colts former K for all the wrong reasons and their current kicker, New England’s former kicker, for all the right reasons.
The Patriots have become the Yankees of the NFL. It was only a few years ago that another Boston team was attempting to overcome mystique, the Beantown football team is trying to hold on to it. The Pats won last week due to a play within a play, some mystique you might say. That is not to knock them, but they didn’t line up and beat the Chargers, they mystiqued them. Troy Brown saved Brady and created the opportunity for Brady to redeem himself. Without Brown’s strip Brady’s reputation as a clutch playoff QB would have taken a pretty big hit. But it didn’t, and he is, and they are, so there you have it.
The big question I have with about the Colts is, are they really playing better defense or have the played two mediocre offenses the first two rounds of the playoffs? Herm Edwards and Brian Billick combined to look like the worst two offensive minds this side of General Custer. Indianapolis is allowing an average of 12 pts per game over their last 3 games, but it has been against the Ravens, Chiefs and Dolphins.
Since 1999 the Colts have only missed one post-season (2001), the Patriots have failed to qualify for the playoffs 3 times (1999, 2000 and 2002). But before last year, they won the Super Bowl every time they did get in the playoffs. What was the difference last year? They played on the road against someone other than Pittsburgh. Prior to their loss at Denver the only road wins they had in the playoffs were at Pittsburgh, who was notorious for losing Conference Championship games at home.
The Colts were always done in by the weather, no defense or their inability to pick up for Peyton when he struggled. This year is different. The Colts now have the clutch kicker; the Colts now get the playoff game at their place and the Colts are finding ways to win without scoring 30+ points. New England has gotten this far yet again and it’s tough to go against them. However, the Colts seem to have found the Patriots number and the dome should work in their favor. I am playing the Colts minus the 3 and playing it at 2-stars.
I have heard a lot of conspiracy theories being floated around out there about how the New Orleans Saints had the 2006 draft rigged twice, a free agent signing fixed and that their opponents threw games for them this year. I love a good conspiracy theory just as much as the next guy, but enough is enough. What has me so concerned is not that people are unwilling to give the Saints credit for a great year, its that everyone is being duped into focusing on that conspiracy when the real one is happening right in front of our eyes and no one is willing to speak out. Well let me be the voice of reason and say that if we all don’t do something soon the NFL as we know it will cease to exist.
Let me come out and state it in plain English. The Manning’s are trying to take over football. Does anyone, aside from me, realize that a Saints win tomorrow afternoon, coupled with a Colt win in the evening will give us Peyton Manning slaying the evil Patriots AND facing off against his poppa’s old team in the Super Bowl?! Do you realize that we will then be faced with all Manning all the time?! They will be on all of our TV channels, all of our newspapers, every sports radio show and even non-sports radio shows! We already are forced to see Peyton plugging any product he can pronounce; Eli has been the focus of attention ever since the 2004 draft. Archie has even found his way to the NBC studios. The Mannings are the Royal family of the NFL, and they are hungry for more.
To their credit, they are not reinventing the wheel. The Kennedy’s did it and the Bush’s are doing it. The Mannings have found their niche and are exploiting it fully. It is also a less dangerous niche, putting all concussions and other injuries aside. The Mannings run very little risk of any assassination attempts and as difficult as it may be to sleep before a big game, I doubt it compares to the Bay of Pigs or our current situation in Iraq.
Here is a summary of the Manning’s climb to the throne. Since 1999, Peyton has been in the playoffs 6 out of 7 seasons. Eli has been in 2 out of his 3 seasons. Poppa Manning never made the playoffs, which is his cross to bear while Peyton’s is not making it to the Super Bowl and Eli’s is that he hasn’t won a playoff game.
Since the 2004 draft it has been a fervent marketing campaign by the Manning family to take over the NFL. There was the aforementioned 2004 draft when Poppa and Eli stole the show with their refusing to play for the San Diego Chargers. Of course Eli was then the talk of the football season up until Kurt Warner was benched and then every day thereafter. Peyton meanwhile kept the family going in the post-season as he once again attempted to defeat the Patriots, to no avail.
2005 came and the Colts went on a run that had them threatening to join the 1972 Dolphins as the only teams to go through the regular season undefeated. Of course they didn’t, but the playoffs came and wouldn’t you know it, both Mannings were in and people were buzzing about a Manning Bowl. It didn’t happen in the ’05 Super Bowl but it sure did the first game of the 2006 season. Peyton versus Eli, in the Meadowlands, Sunday Night Football; Momma and Poppa Manning were in the stands and the Manning family was the toast of the NFL.
No one spoke of a Manning Bowl at the beginning of this post-season, but that was because not even the Giants thought they would make the Super Bowl. But while America slept, the Manning’s plotted. The perfect cover presented itself. Everyone was caught up in how the Texans passed on Reggie Bush, (no relation to the previously mentioned Bush family), the Dolphins signed Daunte Culpepper instead of Drew Brees and Marques Colston dropped all the way to the 7th Round. While America pointed to an NFL conspiracy, it was a Manning conspiracy all along.
The NFL’s Royal family is now two wins away from monopolizing the two weeks of Super Bowl hype. No matter what happens tomorrow, Peyton will be on 1,700 commercials, Archie will be on NBC and Eli will front page at the start of next season. The Mannings are here everyone, get used to it.
Saints -5 
I am really looking forward to this game. Both these teams are very similar, they played once this year, the coaches have coached against each other, there is an Eagle who as a Saint, two QBs that have bad great years, dynamic RBs on both sides of the ball and a city, that is among the best in the world, that will be going nuts! Try and remember what the Superdome was like during that Monday Night Game against the Falcons.
Both the Eagles and the Saints were 1-3 against AFC teams with Philadelphia beating Houston and losing to Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. New Orleans beat Cleveland and lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Saints went 3-1 against the NFC East, beating Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants; losing to the Redskins. The Eagles meanwhile went 2-2 against the NFC South, beating the Panthers and the Falcons and losing to the Saints and the Buccaneers. What all that tells you is what has already been said, these teams are very similar.
Here are some keys as seen by The Dean. The Eagles last 6 games, all wins, have been against the following: NYG, ATL, DAL, NYG, WAS, CAR. It’s nice to win 6 in a row, but that series of wins is notable only in its duration. If anything, a team like the Eagles becomes more likely to lose with each win they accumulate. Are the good enough to win 7 in a row?
The other key is the matchups. Starting at the top, Sean Payton has been coaching against the Eagles for a number of years and knows them very well. He also had a week off and will have his team prepared. The Eagles are without CB Lito Sheppard which weakens a position that the Saints have found ways to exploit all year. Also, the combined efforts of McAlitster and Bush will cause the Eagles problems. The Saints have a lot of weapons. Even with that said, Jeff Garcia has proven he knows how to win games, the Eagles have shown they know how to win games and Andy Reid has shown he knows how to win games. All that adds up to what should be a hard-fought game. The Dean is going to give the points and take the Saints and play it for 3-stars.
Ravens -4 
In the process of breaking down this game, there was a part of me that was screaming, “The Colts are not any good!†I went through my pre-game routine and did my best to ensure I cleared my head of any prejudices or opinions. I wanted my opinions to come from the numbers, the facts and my own analysis of the situation; not from an opinion that was formed more from listening and than studying.
During the course of study the most significant factor to me was how the Ravens went through their schedule and did it with little fanfare. They are a solid, consistent football team with experienced people in key positions on both sides of the football. They have a coach that has done more with less then the opposing coach has done with more. The San Diego Chargers came into Baltimore in Week 4 and were shut down. Take into consideration that was about 14 weeks ago, and it is still impressive. The Ravens did to the Chiefs what the Colts did to them, only Baltimore did it on the road. The Ravens beat the Steelers twice by a combined sore of 58-7. The Colts split with the Texans, Jaguars and Titans; losing the back-end of each of those series.
The Colts do have games that are worth mentioning, but look a little deeper and there are flaws. The Colts beat the Patriots in New England and they hammered the Eagles at home. Not bad, but not so great. New England was playing at their lowest level of the season and the Eagles game was Garcia’s first start and Manning only threw for 183 yards; the Colts ran for 237 yards on Philly. You think that s going to happen today?
The Ravens are not perfect. Their offense struggled at times and they eked out a few games against some not-so-great teams. In the Ravens’ favor, they were 6-2 ATS at home with their 2 losses being a SU loss to Carolina and the faliure to cover a large line against Cleveland. But in the long run, the Ravens have shown who they are and the Colts have shown who they are. How many times do you need to see something to believe something? The Colts in Baltimore today, with their offense against the Raven defense and their defense against the Raven offense, and their coach against the Raven’s coach, don’t stand a chance. The Dean is playing this at 5-stars, taking the Ravens and giving the points.
Florida +7 
Well, it has taken long enough to get here that’s for sure. Aside from that, not much else is so certain. College football has so many variables and intangibles; throw in the extreme layoff for the two teams squaring off tonight and the waters become that much more muddied. Ohio St last played on November 18; Florida last played on December 2. That is an eternity and it will have an impact tonight.
It goes without saying that both Florida and Ohio St. had impressive years, but was one more impressive than the other? I think so. It is generally accepted, and firmly believed by The Dean, that the SEC is better than the Big 10. In addition, the Gators had to go through a Conference Championship while the Buckeyes didn’t even play a full Big 10 slate. (OSU didn’t play Wisconsin or Purdue.) Florida had 10 opponents go to bowls and those teams were a collective 7-3 in their bowl games. Ohio St. played 7 teams that went to bowls, those teams went a collective 3-4. When you take a deeper look at the 7 bowl teams that OSU beat, there isn’t an abundance of great wins. Yes, they crushed many teams but scoring 54 points against Northwestern doesn’t register with The Dean. Texas was a nice win, but it was the Longhorns second game of the year breaking in a new QB. Penn St. had a chance to beat the Buckeyes in Columbus before Anthony Morelli melted down and threw two INTs that were returned for TDs. They beat Michigan in a classic game, but how good is Michigan? According to USC, not all that. OSU’s other bowl-team wins came against Cincinnati, No. Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota. Go ahead, get excited about those wins. Florida meanwhile played an SEC schedule and suffered only one loss, at Auburn.
Florida’s defense is physical enough to play with the Buckeyes and the speed advantage OSU had all year will not exist tonight. Its not a Big 10 team on the other side of the ball, it’s the SEC champion and as tough as it may be to go against a team that has won 19 games in a row, that’s exactly what The Dean is doing.
Florida has found a way to win all year. Whether it be blocked FGs or punt returns, they have found a way. That certainly doesn’t guarantee a win, but expect tonight to be tight and once it is, I like the team that has been there before. I am not declaring FLA a winner, but don’t be surprised if they do as they have all year and find a way. The Dean will take the points and the Gators and play it for 3-stars.
As previewed.
Eagles -7
Rivalry games in the playoffs always add an extra element of intensity and excitement. These two teams split their series this year, each winning at the other team’s home. The Giants win was early in the year and was one of the greatest comebacks in franchise history. Since then, both teams have changed drastically. Therefore, it is more reliable to focus on their most recent game, a 14-point Eagle win in the Meadowlands three weeks ago. It was a tightly contested game that came down to a few plays in the fourth quarter. Plays the Eagles made and the Giants didn’t. Making plays and not making plays, Eagles and Giants. Yeah, that seems about right, the Eagles make plays and the Giants don’t. Some people want to cling to hope that this ‘new season’, the playoffs, allow a team to start all over again. Well, they don’t. All the injured players don’t comeback, all the bad memories of plays and games blown don’t go away. After 16 games teams show who they are and these two teams are heading in vastly different directions. The Giants one hope is that Kevin Gilbride’s play calling may catch the Eagles by surprise as they only have one game to study with him at the helm. Even with that, The Dean likes the Eagles minus the points and will play it for 5-stars.
This game wasn’t able to cover because of field position.
Cowboys +2.5
Two teams that have really struggled over the past 4 weeks, each dropping 3 games. The Seahawks have been up and down all year as they battled a lot of injuries. Dallas started slow, won a bunch and has now come on hard times as their defensive lapses have killed them. The Cowboy secondary has taken the majority of the heat but The Dean knows it’s never ‘one-thing’ that causes these bad streaks. Perhaps Dallas catches some relief with WR Darrell Jackson being out for Seattle.
In looking at the Seahawks wins this year, it is really tough to find a quality one. Perhaps their win at Denver but that comes with a qualifier of it being Jay Cutler’s first start. Aside from that, the two losses to the 49ers, and losses to the Cardinals and Vikings make a much louder statement than any of their wins. Granted Dallas lost to Detroit last week, but The Dean believes that was just a product of the Lions clicking on all cylinders and being able to take advantage of the same thing all day long. I don’t believe Seattle can do the same thing. I look for the Cowboys to tempt Seattle into passing on more downs than they should and Hasselbeck not being able to get it done. The Cowboys also have more playmakers and TO will make more positive plays than negative plays. The Dean is taking Dallas and the points for 4-stars.
That was a lucky win by the Seahawks, not a lucky cover by the Cowboys.
Louisville -10.5
In a nut shell, Louisville scores points and Wake doesn’t. What Wake does do is win more than anyone thought they would. And while the Deacons have had a great year they play the best team on their schedule last. Wake has had some not-so-impressive wins over some bad teams. The concern in going against Wake is that they have proved a lot of people wrong all year.
What can’t be debated is that Louisville averaged 38.9 points per game this year and only allowed 16.6. Wake does run the ball well and those are the teams that have tested the Cardinals defense. The Dean does not believe Wake can stop Louisville and all the running in the world won’t allow them to keep pace. Wake does have a +13 turnover ratio and they do have 22 INTs this year. But even with that, The Dean is rolling with Louisville minus the points and making it a 5-star play.
Wake almost did it again, but they didn’t. As previewed.
Penn St +4
Happy New Year everyone, it’s a great day when there are so many games to choose from and to get it all started before noon. The Dean is going to start the year with some action on the Penn St/Tennessee game. Both these teams have been off for a long time, Penn St since 11/18 and Tennessee since 11/25. Conventional wisdom tells us to expect the offenses to struggle a bit until the rust comes off. This may not mean much to Penn St’s offense as it has not been overly-impressive this year. If you remove Temple, Youngstown St, and Akron from the Nittany Lion totals, they are averaging less than 17 points per game. The good news for PSU is they only allowed an average of 17 points in those same games and under 15 points in all games. Keep in mind that Notre Dame hung 41 on Penn St early in the year when the PSU linebackers were banged up. Also, Ohio St’s 28 points included two defensive Buckeye scores.
Tennessee meanwhile rebounded a bit from last years debacle. But when you look at their schedule closely, you are pressed to find a quality win that doesn’t come with some qualifier. At first glance, Cal and Georgia are the two wins that would classify as quality. Not to take away too much from the Volunteers but the Cal game was not as impressive for Tennessee as it was horrendous for Cal. And with Georgia, Tennessee caught the Bulldogs at the height of UGA’s struggles.
Penn St’s four losses were to ND, Ohio St, Michigan and Wisconsin, all BCS teams. In addition, the ND game is the only one that PSU didn’t have a chance to win late. Granted, PSU was a dog in all those games and they lost all 4 SU and ATS but they were one play away in each of those contests. In addition, Tennessee’s run defense has allowed almost 150 yards per game overall and almost 170 per game over their last three.
Penn St’s bowl success is well documented. When it comes to devising schemes and making the most of the time to prepare, The Dean puts stock in the PSU staff over Phil Fulmer’s staff and believes that today is the day that Penn St finally gets a win over a high-profile team. I will be playing this at 4-stars, taking Penn St and the points.
As previewed.
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