Texans -6 
In trying to come up with a game that would be a good wager, The Dean stumbled across the Cleveland/Houston game. Cleveland enters the game hurt and without a healthy QB. Ken Dorsey was going to start, but now Charlie Frye will make his first start since December the 3rd. Lost 5 O-lineman and have put 14 players on IR this year and will start a backup and a rookie at their two guard spots.
The Texans meanwhile have found something to play for and can top off 2006 as the best year in the franchises organization with a follow-up of last week’s performance against the Colts. You can point to a possible let-down as a factor here, but The Dean believes the Browns just want the year to be over. It’s hard to put a lot of confidence in a bad team, so the stars will be low on this play. All of Cleveland’s injuries and the Line being higher than I had thought pushes this from a no-star play to a 2-star play, taking Houston and giving the points
As previewed
Eagles -9 
No two teams that play today are as opposite as the Falcons and the Eagles. The Falcons are in disarray and no one wants to either play or coach with anyone else. This team entered the year with so much promise and it perished somewhere along the way. Their head coach openly campaigns for other jobs, the coach’s father makes comments about the QB, the QB hasn’t played to expectations, he’s flipped off the crowd, the list goes on and on.
Philadelphia on the other hand has a winning backup QB and a head coach that is solid and knows how to run a football organization. The Eagles lost two games that were miracles for their opposition yet they are in position to win the Division today. There is always the possibility of a let-down after 3 straight intra-division games on the road, but this Eagle team has shown their colors. The Dean believes that Philadelphia will win this game convincingly and is going to give the points and take the Eagles at 5-stars.
Oregon St -3 
I got the itch and I got it bad. There are 5 games today and I can’t let them all go by without playing at least one of them. I don’t have a plethora of knowledge on any one of the matchups, but I was able to pull enough information on the Oregon St/Missouri game to make a modest play. Last night’s 4-star Rutgers win has my NCAA earnings a little closer to the black and it creates a little bit of a comfort zone for me to do a little gambling today and still preserve some cash for some later games that I really like.
There are few stats in football that carry as much significance as Rushing. When a team is able to run the ball effectively for an entire year and they play a team that has struggled against the run all year, you can assume with some confidence that those trends will reveal themselves when the teams play. Missouri has allowed over 200 yards rushing per game over their last 6 and Oregon St loves to run the ball. It should also be noted that the Beavers played a better schedule than the Tigers and have some very impressive wins (at Hawaii, USC) and Missouri doesn’t. Again, there isn’t much I can sink my teeth into, but I have found enough to take Oregon St and give the points for 1-star.
OT was the last hope. All games should be this exciting.
Rutgers -7.5 
The media seems focused on how disappointed Rutgers is to be in Houston and not Miami and how difficult it is going to be for them to be up for this game. The Dean says ‘Hogwash!†Rutgers has come too far and is too well coached to overlook a Big 12 opponent and the opportunity to get 11 wins in a year.
This Scarlet Knights team has 9 5th year seniors on their roster, 6 of whom are on-the-field contributors. That level of experience and memory of where this team has come from carries a lot of weight. On the flip side, Kansas State QB Josh Freeman is a Freshman who has struggled the majority of this year. He did give us a glimpse of greatness in his 3 TD performance against Texas in what was K-States biggest win of the year. If you remove his stats from the Texas game however, Freeman threw 3 TDs this against 12 INTs this year. This is on a team that only averages 122 yards on the ground this year, that doesn’t bode well for the Wildcats, especially against a Rutgers defense that is ranked 7th in the nation.
The Rutgers offense is well equipped to take care of the scoring necessary to cover a 7.5 line. Rutgers averages 177 yards a game on the ground, while K-State has allowed 143 yards on the ground this year and over 200 per game in their last three. Being able to run the ball will allow QB Mike Teel to play his game, thus removing the risk of the type of performance he had against Cincinnati. On another note, Rutgers hasn’t been spectacular on covering lines as a favorite this year (2-3-1). Taking it all into consideration The Dean is making this a 4-star play, taking Rutgers and giving the points.
As previewed.
UCLA -3
Florida St and UCLA, two institutions with a lot of tradition and brand names when it comes to collegiate sports, are the case to study for this evening. The FSU brand is one that carries a lot of weight on the football field. When it comes to analyzing the Seminoles and the point spread it can cause some confusion. FSU is a 6-6 football team where their best win of the year was most likely against Western Michigan. Their other wins were against Miami, Troy, Rice, Duke and Virginia. Granted the first three, and Western Michigan, are all bowl teams, but please don’t try to convince anyone that those were quality wins. Despite all their struggles this year, FSU was a favorite in all games but two, against Miami and against Florida. Note: They covered both lines. One of the reasons FSU was favored so often is that their schedule was relatively weak. The other reason is that people don’t like to bet against the FSU brand. People still believe they are good. As far as talent goes, the people are not completely wrong. But not being wrong doesn’t make you right.
UCLA on the other hand does not carry the same magnitude on the gridiron as FSU and in The Dean’s opinion it causes people to overlook facts. Here are some facts about UCLA this year. They ended the year with three straight wins over 3 bowl teams, Oregon St, Arizona St and USC. They suffered through a 4 game losing streak in the middle of the season where three of the four games were on the road, 3 of the 4 teams are bowl teams and 2 of the losses were to teams that spent a majority of the year in the Top 10 and were pre-season favorites to play for the championship, Notre Dame and Cal. There is no doubt, no doubt at all, that UCLA played a better schedule, is a better team and has many more accomplishments this year than FSU.
With the bowl game layoff you can expect both offenses to be rusty and neither offense was all that great to begin with. That brings to the fore the defenses. The turf in San Francisco will be wet and the game could turn on some early plays. FSU has athletes that can make plays, but their struggles at QB are too overwhelming to overlook. Couple that with the Seminoles struggles all year and The Dean has to go with UCLA tonight laying the points. The Bruins have not received stellar play from their QB spot either this year, and perhaps I am buying into the FSU brand a bit, so I am having trouble going big and will play this game at 2-stars.
FSU protected that brand pretty well.
Jets +1
Where to begin with this game? The season started with the Jets not expected to compete and the Dolphins being slated by some for the Super Bowl. The Dean never expected the Dolphins to live up to those expectations but they have shown in the past weeks some reasons why people like them. Their problems start and end at the QB position just as they always have. If they can get any level of consistency from that position they have the other parts. The Dolphins gave the Bears their first loss and shut out the Patriots. The Jets meanwhile have compiled 8 wins against teams with a combined record of 22-36 at the time they beat them. New England is their only win against a team with a winning record and that game was after a Jet bye and a Patriot loss to the Colts on Monday Night.
These teams are very similar. They are good enough in certain areas to exploit another team’s weakness but they struggle to put it all together on a consistent basis. If Chad Pennington can control the ball, make 2-3 plays, and the defense can pressure the Dolphins bad QBs, then the Jets are in good shape to win this game. The Dean can’t find any aspect of this game that is deserving of my confidence, but the Dolphin QB situation doesn’t make the short list of candidates and it tips my favor to the Jets getting a point but playing it conservative at 1-star.
As previewed.
Eagles +7 
Eagles versus Cowboys is always a phrase that evokes passion and drama. The drama has been set for tonight’s game and it is a safe bet the passion will be present once the ball is kicked-off, if not before. There are so many battles within the game tonight that it is easy for us wagerers to take our eye off the ball. T.O. versus his old team, Garcia versus T.O., Romo versus Garcia, Parcells versus Reid all while both teams look to secure not only a spot in the playoffs but for the highly-valued position within the playoffs. All that needs to be pushed aside and we must focus our attention to the items that matter.
In looking at this game the large spread in the Cowboys favor is what initially caught my eye. Why is this line so big? Is Vegas telling us something with a TD spread, or is Vegas as mistaken about this matchup as they were in the Saints/Cowboys game? To The Dean the only factor that justifies a full TD line in the Cowboys favor is the physical state of the Eagles defense. Philly enters this game nicked up on the defensive side of the ball. The vast majority of the injured players are listed as Probable or Questionable nonetheless, a seed as been planted. Just how healthy are the Eagles on defense?
Speaking of defense, the Cowboys wish they could point to some injuries as a reason for their recent struggles. Opponents are averaging 30 points a game against Dallas and in their last 3 games teams have averaged 137 yards on the ground. This is in stark contrast to their previous games as their overall average is still under 100 yards a game at 97.9. The Eagles meanwhile have been putting up 28 points per game over the same span and have really settled into a groove with Jeff Garcia at the helm. Make no mistake about it, Garcia is as solid a QB as you can find and is a proven winner. Forget his struggles in Cleveland and Detroit, they have no bearing on what type of QB he is. Those are two very bad organizations that would make Joe Montana look like Ron Powlus.
The Dean can see both these offenses racking up yards on each other and if the Eagles are as banged up as the Injury Report makes it seem, then the Eagles offense is going to have to keep pace. The Dean is one person that believes the Eagles can not only keep pace but they can win this game. Dallas has more playmakers than Philadelphia, so Garcia and Westbrook need to play well. That being said, 7 points is just too many for The Dean to eat, but the injuries are making me cautious. I will be playing the Eagles plus the points for 3-stars.
As previewed.
Steelers -3.5
The Steelers are playing as well as they have played all year and are doing it at the right time of the season, thought it still may be too late. They need help to get in the playoffs, but the playoffs are still in sight. The Ravens are playing for the first round bye which is motivation enough to believe the Ravens will come to play. Being that that both teams are going to get after today, Vegas tells The Dean all he needs to know. Pittsburgh is 7-7, the Ravens are 11-3 yet Pittsburgh is the 3.5 point favorite. That tips the scales for The Dean so I will ride with the Steelers today, give the points and play it for 5-stars..
Packers -3.5
Brett Favre, in possibly his last game at Lambeau, against a rookie QB who has never been to Lambeau; thats what tonight is offering us. For every ounce of love that people throw at Favre, The Dean has just as much anxiety. The dude flat out scares me. Here is the real deal on Favre, he tries too hard, he thinks too highly of himself and he forces the issue well beyond the point of reason. No doubt he is a competitor but the dude flat out scares The Dean. Even with all that, there is no way I can lay anything on the Vikings. They are team that had a few good weeks in the beginning of the season and haven’t sniffed success since. The Dean is making a call on the Packers tonight laying the points and will play it at 3-stars.
This game should’ve been an easy cover but it was blown by a kicker and washed-up QB. Retire Favre, you’re garbage!
BYU -3
The Dean is going against one of his guidelines which is to not play games where you don’t know the teams very well. Let me start by saying its a guideline and not a rule. The complimentary guideline to the one previously mentioned is to keep the stars low. Which is why this is being played at 2-stars. Now to the matchup.
Oregon is barely bowl eligible if you remember back to the Oklahoma game. And they only have two wins that are worth a pat on the back. An early season blow-out of Arizona St and a home win over UCLA. The Ducks are also entering tonight on a 3 game losing streak. One factor that could be in the Ducks favor is that Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton used to be the Head Coach at BYU. He wasn’t savvy enough with the players to win enough and keep his job, so The Dean is willing to wager he won’t be savvy enough to make use of anything he might remember about his former players.
Meanwhile, BYU is hot. They have run off 9 straight wins (granted against less than stellar teams) and their only two losses were by 3 points opening game at Arizona and by 7 in OT at Boston College. They also covered 7 in-a-row amdist their 9 game winning streak. Keep in mind that they do face the 8th ranked pass defense tonight, but Sr. QB John Beck has completed 71.2% of his passes in the last 5 games and if there is one thing BYU has always been known for its moving the ball through the air. The other thing BYU is known for is essentially creating Thursday night college games.
As a last deciding factor, Mormons are better equipped to deal with the distractions of Sin City than any group from Eugene, Oregon or The Dean for that matte. With all that said, The Dean is taking BYU and laying the points tonight, but playing it at 2-stars.
As previewed.
Bengals +3
The offenses are in the spotlight tonight and tonight’s game should prove to be very entertaining. Vegas opened this game at 3 which, in The Dean’s analysis, indicates Vegas’ throwing up their hands and letting the public’s action to drive the line. The public responded by putting almost even money on both side of the ledger. Vegas wins again!
Back to the matter at hand, who does The Dean want to support this evening? Neither! There are a million and 1 reasons to go either way with this game. The Bengals have been playing very well of late, whereas the Colts have not only been playing poorly they have also been getting hurt along the way. Its hard to imagine Indianapolis losing 3 games in a row, but its also difficult to imagine the Colts defense tackling anyone. With all that being said, I am playing this as a 1-star taking the Bengals and the points
Its why we star the games. Ended the week with a profit after going 1-2
[powered by WordPress.]
Powered by Twitter Tools
32 queries. 0.417 seconds
