October 16, 2006

Pick for Monday October 16, 2006

by @ 6:39 am. Filed under NFL, Wagering

Bears @ Cardinals

Bears -11.5
When was the last time the Cardinals played on Monday Night Football? They do so with a rookie QB, an All-Pro receiver on the sideline and possibly the best team in the NFL coming to town. Did I also mention how bad the Cardinals defense is? The Bears offense has looked great, their defense has looked better. There is no reason to take the Cardinals tonight unless you just don’t like double-digit lines. DDs don’t scare The Dean and neither do the Cardinals.

Lay the points, take the Bears and make it worth 4-stars tonight.

REVIEW: Bears 24 – Cardinals 23

On Sunday The Dean made the Giants a pick because at the beginning of the season I had a perception of the Giants that hadn’t sufficiently been changed and therefore was a good pick getting points. Had I stuck with this same rationale, the Cardinals would have been the pick last night. This is not second guessing, or Tuesday Morning QB. What this is, is an example of consistency; or in actuality, a lack of consistency.

In Saturday’s review I wrote of the counterparts to gambling. The second part of the equation, along with probability, is consistency. If you use sound reasoning, and you use it consistently, you will increase the probability of success.

Let me tell one story to highlight this point. I mentioned the Giants and my pre-season thoughts on them. In that same light, I was having a conversation with a friend on who would prove to be the most overrated team in the NFL, and who would be the dark horse. I called for the Dolphins to be the most overrated and the Cardinals to be the most underrated. 5 weeks into the season, I gave up on my belief and it was proven to be pre-mature.

In that same regard I bought into all the hype about how good the Bears are after 5 weeks. At the beginning of the season I didn’t think highly of the Bears and again I was premature in having my perception of them changed. What I did believe at the beginning of the season is that Rex Grossman is not a good enough QB to lead a team to a dominating season. He proved that last night to be the case. Don’t forget everyone, he is still Rex Grossman.

I am not saying that I had any premonition that the Cardinals would dominate the game the way they did, all I am saying is, had I been consistent in my rationale, the same motive for taking the Giants would have had the Cardinals as last night’s pick.

My tip to you is, remember your thoughts from the past. The more simple you make each decision and the more consistent you are with each application, the more accurate you become. This starts with knowing your material and believing in yourself; once you have that use it . . . consistently.

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