September 18, 2006

Pick for Monday September 18, 2006

by @ 5:52 pm. Filed under NFL, Wagering

Steelers @ Jaguars

Jaguars +3
So is it good to have 11 days betweeen games? How about 8 months? The Steelers haven’t laced them up since their Thursday night win at home against the Dolphins. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t played since the Super Bowl. This line opened at Jacksonville giving 3 points and has now done a complete 180 and the Steelers are giving 3 points. Is a QB that hasn’t played in 8 months worth a 6 point swing? My guess is the swing is a combination of Big Ben being back (nice alliteration, huh?) and Vegas evening out the wagers after every Steeler fan in the country got all hyped at the announcement that Ben is playing. Personally, I liked the Jaguars a little when they were giving the three, I obviously like them more that they are getting three.

There is a stat out there about Bill Cowher on Monday nights (18-7), a trend about home teams on Monday nights and another stat (that impresses me more) that the Jaguars are one of only three teams that Bill Cowher has a losing record against. As a coach of mine once said, “stats are for losers” so lets not hang our hats on the above.

The Jaguars come into this year with a lot of pundits saying they are an underrated, underappreciated team. They get lost in their division because everyone sees the Colts and no one else when the look at the AFC South. However, the Jags enter this year with designs on the division and they got off to a good start last week against the Cowboys.

The Steelers are also 1-0 and looked about the same as last year in their win against the Dolphins. They play tough, they play well and they capitalize on the other teams errors. But are you really impressed with a win over the Dolphins? Really?! No disrespect to the Steelers or to Ben, but at this juncture of the season I will take Byron Leftwich over Ben, especially when Byron is getting points at home.

My respect for the Steelers alone is keeping this a 3-star selection. All that being said, The Dean says to take the Jaguars and the points tonight at home in what should be a very competitive game.

REVIEW: Jaguars 9 – Steelers 0

Did I say this game was going to be competitive? The defenses were at their best. Ben will get better, its been a long time since he’s played.

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