August 31, 2006

Picks for Saturday September 2, 2006

by @ 9:31 pm. Filed under College FB, Wagering

Rutgers @ North Carolina

Rutgers +5
It always scary taking the road team in home openers, but this game may even be worth taking the money line. Rutgers has one of the best backfields in the country that nobody really talks about. Brian Leonard is a workhorse that can pound you as well as catch the ball out of the backfield. Rice rushed for over 1,000 yards as a freshman last year and he’s the 2nd best back on this team. North Carolina lost some good seniors on the defensive line and that is not a good thing when facing these RBs. Both teams have new QBs so no edge to either team in that category. Rutgers is sound in the kicking game which is always nice in a game that looks to be an even matchup. The Dean says, Go ahead and take the Scarlet Knights and that punishing backfield plus the points.

REVIEW: Rutgers 21 - North Carolina 16

Not much to review here. This is not your father’s Rutgers.

Akron @ Penn St.

Akron +17
This line opened at Penn St -23.5. The drastic movement is a tell-tale sign of a major adjustment by the betting crowd. The Dean believes wholeheartedly in the widsom of the crowd, a belief that I will expound upon in future writings, and at no point is the crowd’s wisdom as valuable as when Vegas is this unsure. When Vegas makes you a 20+ favorite the know-it-alls are declaring you a dominant team. The Crowd is shouting that Penn St is not a dominant team. Being that the line opened at 23.5, this has been a great bet for the last 4-5 points, but alas it is at 17 at the time of this writing. The MAC teams’ success is much documented. PSU is not a bad team, but the are not a great team. It should never be said that a 1 loss year is not a great year, but it should not be assumed it was a great team doing it. 17 is too many points for an average team to be giving, especially with a first year QB, against a solid, well coached team. Senior QB Luke Getsy headlines eight starters back on the offensive side of the ball. Getsy threw for 3,455 yards and a school-record 23 touchdowns passes in 2005. He enters 2006 ranked fifth nationally among returning QBs in passing yards, sixth in completions (21.4 pg) and tied for sixth in TD passes. Take Akron and the points. This was a sure thing at 19+, it is more of a gamble at 17 but still the way to go.

REVIEW: Akron 16 - Penn St. 34

I really don’t want to start ripping kickers the first weekend, but if K Matt Domonkos makes his PAT, this game is a push. Despite the kicking miscue, this game was a winner if you took it earlier in the week. Let this game highlight the importance of being aware all week long.

Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech

Over 50.5
The theme of this pick is go with what you know. So what does The Dean know? He knows that Brady Quinn is the best QB in college football, that Jeff Samardzija will play in the NFL and is ready to go, and that Darius Walker is back along with another good pass catching TE. I also know that while GA Tech’s defense is no slouch, it does not match up with the ND offense. The Dean also knows that Reggie Ball is the type of QB that can give ND fits. Combine that with Calvin Johnson going against a supposedly better but still young ND secondary and the scoring should be frequent. Take the OVER 50.5 and watch the numbers be tallied.

REVIEW: Total - 24

The Dean forgot a cardinal rule of early season football . . . The ‘D’ is usually ahead of the ‘O’. Both defenses were aggressive and flying all over the field and the ND offense was slightly conservative, though their game plan worked as they were certainly the fresher team in the 2nd half. GA Tech’s offense seemed to forget the object is to score more points than your opponent. ND’s offense will put up points this year, but the hostile environment and a sold GA Tech defense were too much.

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