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Let’s cut to the chase. When I write my predictions I usually like to string you the reader along until the end of the post to tell you which team I like to cover spreads and win games. Not today. Today I am going to tell you right off the bat that the Baltimore Ravens are going to win this game today and they will win it going away. I knew I would pick the Ravens today because on September 4, 2012 I predicted that the Super Bowl this year would crown the Baltimore Ravens. Don’t believe me? Listen here. But to hang my proverbial hat from that hook doesn’t say much about today’s game. It simply shows that I was fortunate enough to have my predicted winner in place and that I was going to stick by my prediction. In short, my response to why I think the Ravens are going to win is nothing more than me saying, “Because I said so.” Well, here is why.
For starters, I am dumbfounded by people’s undying belief in Colin Kaepernick and their utter distrust of Joe Flacco. Kaepernick has started 9 NFL games, 9. Joe Flacco has won a playoff game each of the last 5 years. Joe Flacco was a Lee Evans dropped ball in last year’s AFC Championship game away from this being his second consecutive Super Bowl appearance. The insanity of bad mouthing Flacco and hailing Kaepernick needs to stop, and today it will. People point to Kaepernick’s performance against the Packers as proof of his awesomeness. However, if you watch that game again what you will see is one of the worst defensive performances ever perpetrated on a football field. Last game against Atlanta is more realistic. 21 yards rushing, just over 50% of his passes completed, and if not for Matt Ryan choking like a pig it would be Atlanta in today’s game and not the 49ers.
Try these stats on for size. Not counting each team’s final game of the regular season, the 49er defense has given up on average 33 points and 424 yards per game; while the Ravens have scored over 30 points per game. The Baltimore defense has given up only 4 TDs in 3 games, and do you all remember what the Falcons did in the first half to that Niner defense?! I understand they didn’t do squat in the second half, but that was due to Falcon miscues, not great Niner play. The 49ers could not stop the passing attack of Atlanta and it will be worse today. The 49er defense sacked Matt Ryan one time which has been their trend in the latter half of this year. A weak pass rush and an exposed secondary. Flacco will exploit it with Boldin and Smith having big days. The running combination of Rice and Pierce will prove too much for SF, and Kaepernick will prove to be not enough.
There are a lot of other items we can all point to in order to justify whichever team we think will win. The Ravens fortunate bomb for a TD against the Broncos that was misplayed by the Broncos secondary. Two common opponents, the New York Giants who beat the 49ers by 23 points but lost to the Ravens by 19. The New England Patriots who was beaten by both teams (Baltimore twice) but the Pats also racked up over 500 yards against the 49er defense. Some bad losses for both teams. The Ravens with a loss to the Eagles and the 49ers with a loss and tie to the Rams for example. Did you also know that the pattern of Ws vs Ls for the 49ers this year was gone 2 wins followed by a loss all year. The 49ers are on a current 3 game winning streak with an end of the year win over the Cardinals and two playoff wins. The Ravens lost 4 of their last 5, and should have lost in San Diego if not for a 4th and 29 conversion that might not have actually been a first down. Dig deep and you will find items to support whichever way you want the game to go.
I began picking Super Bowl’s on my blog in in the 2006-07 season. In the last 6 Super Bowls my record ATS is 5-1 and SU is 6-0. That said: Final Score, Baltimore 38 – San Francisco 27.
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 vs San Francisco 49ers (5-stars)
Baltimore Ravens ML +160 vs San Francisco 49ers (5-stars)
Baltimore Ravens/San Francisco 49ers Over 48 (1-star)
Dean Browski’s 2012 NFL Betting Record To Date
Bankroll +/-: +4.96%
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