June 18, 2009

Artie Lang Teabags Joe Buck

by @ 10:23 am. Filed under Humor

Artie Lang teabagged Joe Buck
If you are sensitive to vulgarity or watching another human suffer under a profane verbal beat down, then you will not want to visit this link!

Say what you will about Joe Buck’s ability as a broadcaster, some like him some don’t. One thing that is not in question is how much of a pompous ass he is. Seeing him have no clue how to handle Artie Lang, reverting to middle school insults, and actually whimpering while he begged Artie not to light a cigarette (after he just told Artie he didn’t care if he lit a smoke), was so heart-warming to me.

The people at HBO either contrived this disaster of a first show for Buck because they secretly hate him (which is believable) or they are simply incompetent (also very believable). Why would you expose Joe Buck to Artie Lang?! Artie is a professional, and a guy that knows his racket. Artie’s racket is to be f’ing hilarious and get noticed, mission accomplished! One could say that Artie came to the set ready to sabotage the show from the beginning, but even if he did 1. So what?!, and 2. Joe Buck’s opening with Paul Rudd was the suckiest TV I have ever seen. Literally. Even if Artie didn’t have plans to humiliate Buck before the show began, Buck gave him every reason and opportunity to teabag his polished forehead.

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June 8, 2009

2009 NBA Finals Games 1 and 2

by @ 12:17 pm. Filed under NBA

2009 NBA Finals

The 2009 NBA Finals are exhibiting the essence of basketball which is about matchups, which are about individuals. However, it is the combination of those individuals and how the work in unison that ultimately determines who is the best team.

With that in mind, the following individuals are the ones that have left a mark on my psyche through the first two games.

Dwight Howard
Everyone, myself included, questioned why Howard wasn’t given more of the spotlight. His performance so far in the Finals has been less than impressive. True he is getting his rebounds, and true he had a much better second game. However, last night when he received the ball in the post with his back to the basket in the 3rd and 4th quarters he either had the ball stripped, threw a bad pass, or forced a shot. I am very unimpressed and disappointed with Howard so far.

Jameer Nelson
People get excited when a very good player returns from injury. Why wouldn’t they? A player that was instrumental to the Magic’s success this year was gonna be back in uniform, a cause for celebration, no? No! The flow that the Magic developed over the course of these playoffs was a fine balance of movement, anticipation, and comfort in their surroundings. To introduce a new element into the middle of that is to play scientist and hope that the chemicals don’t blow up. I am not pinning the first two losses on Nelson, not at all. I think that getting Nelson acclimated to full speed is a great idea, and if Orlando would have won last night (which they should have) they would be sitting pretty headed home.

Rafer Alston
Alston is a by-product of Nelson. Alston seems to be the one most affected by Nelson’s return to the lineup.

Derek Fisher
It seems that when Fisher touches the ball late in a game good things are going to happen for his team.

Pau Gasol
The White Willie McGee. Dude is f’n ugly.

JJ Redick
Hit a big shot, missed a big shot, and had a turnover on a good pass that just took him too long to make. Redick got plenty of playing time and did ok, but had missed a chance to raise his own stock.

Hedo Turkoglu
A close runner-up to the ugliest dude on the court. Turkoglu’s value to this Magic team can not be understated. I would have liked to have seen that pass to Courtney Lee be slightly better, but it certainly wasn’t a bad pass.

Stan Van Gundy
I am a big fan of both Van Gundy’s and Stan is showing that he is a better coach than Phil Jackson. I don’t know if there is a stat on points scored off of inbound plays, but I am willing to bet that Van Gundy’s teams are at the top.

The list does not have Kobe Bryant because Kobe has not left a mark on my psyche. He is doing what he does. I will say that Kobe I don’t expect Kobe to have his shots blocked when shooting for the win . . . The Magic covered the 6.5 points last night and came within a layup of winning when they were +260 . . . The Magic are -4 in Game 3 and -200, while the Lakers are +165 . . . The Dean likes the Magic to cover in Game 3.

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May 31, 2009

King James and His Peasants

by @ 10:53 am. Filed under NBA

LeBron James Not Good Enough
In 3 of Orlando’s 4 wins, someone off the bench played more minutes than at least one starter. In the lone game where that did not occur, Mickael Pietrus played 1 min and 50 seconds less than Dwight Howard (Game 3). Only once did Cleveland have a non-starter play more minutes that a starter, also Game 3. Aleksandar Pavlovic played more minutes than Anderson Varejao.

It was always Pietrus who was the non-starter that netted more minutes, so perhaps he should be considered the key to the Magic winning the series. This stat also points out what a lot of LeBron Lovers point to as the reason the Cavs lost. They lament “Poor LeBron can’t do it all himself!!! His teammates let him down, his teammates are only good because the get to play with LeBron!”. Bullshit. I guess his teammates had no part in the Cavs having the best record in the NBA in the regular season. I suppose that his teammates had no part in the Cavs winning their first 8 playoff games this year.

The bottom line is this, once you look past all the hype, and the commercials, and the chalk dust in the air that is clouding everyone’s vision, a few things become very clear:

  1. LeBron should have carried his team past the Magic. If LeBron wants the monikers of King and The Chosen One, then this is what he should have done. Is it fair? Probably not, but wtf?! he is The King, isn’t he?
  2. The matchup problems caused by the Magic should have been more talked about from the beginning. The Magic bench is better than the Cavs and no one on the Cavs can cover Hedo Turkoglu. He alone was cause for the Magic to win this series.
  3. Mike Brown isn’t good enough to be a CYO coach. Coach Brown contributed absolutely nothing to his team in the series with Orlando. No adjustments were made on either the offensive or defensive side of the court that had any positive impact. I will not accept the ‘inferior talent’ argument either. His team had the best record in the NBA this year. The Magic were playing without Jameer Nelson. Mike Brown is not an NBA caliber coach and it showed in this series. His interview at halftime yesterday epitomized his lack of ability as a coach. When asked what can he do to stop Dwight Howard, he responds that Howard is taking hops every time he gets the ball in the post. Thanks for that Coach, but what is the audience going to do about that? Just wanted to get it out there so you have an excuse for when your team ultimately loses?

The Cavs didn’t deserve to win any games in this series. The get a miracle shot to win Game 2, and because of that they get a Game 5 at home, otherwise they would have been done in 4. And do the Cavs really get a pat on the back for winning Game 5 at home, down 3-1?! Really?! The team with the best record in the NBA gets accolades for not quitting in a Game 5 at home, down 3-1?! Really?!

When push came to shove, neither the Cavs nor LeBron showed up. Last night was THE Game of Forever for Cleveland and LeBron goes 8 of 20 from the field, missed 4 foul shots, grabbed 1 offensive rebound, had 3 turnovers, and scored a grand total of 0, yes ZERO, points in the 2nd Quarter. Way to go King, really impressive how you carried the peasants all the way to a Game 6 loss.

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February 21, 2009

Progressive Wagering as a Better Bettor

by @ 7:51 pm. Filed under NHL, Wagering

I am going to get started again with some progressive betting. I am taking my current Money Pool and splitting it into two funds of equal value. The one fund will be the New York Rangers for their last 23 games of the season, the first of which is tonight in Buffalo. I have set the Per Game Percentage (PGP) to 1.75% which will allow for a 4 game losing streak by the Rangers.

Should the Rangers go 11-12 over their last 23 games, something that in the eyes of most pundits and specifically Bobby Biscuit should be achieved at a minimum, there isn’t much room in there to lose 4 games in a row. Granted, they could drop 12 in a row to start, win the last 11 and reach the predicted 11-12, but that is highly unlikely.

In looking at the Rangers last 23 games there is a stretch of 5 games that I believe will make or break this fund. The first of the five is on March the 5th against the New York Islanders. This is a big game because of the Rangers 4 games after their dual with the Islanders. The Rangers must win on Long Island because they come home for a game against the East leading Boston Bruins, followed by three road games at Carolina, Nashville, and Philadelphia.

The 4 game stretch of Boston, at Carolina, at Nashville, and at Philadelphia is what causes me the most concern. I could have lowered the PGP to allow for a longer losing streak, but I believe that 4 consecutive losses is low enough in probability to warrant investing in the Rangers.

I had to make the following assumptions for each game. First was to identify the Rangers as the Favorite or the Underdog, and secondly to set a Money Line. Imade the Rangers an Underdog in all road games except when they play: Islanders, Predators, and Thrashers. I made the Rangers the favorite in all home games except when they play the Bruins.

Lastly, I set all Money Lines at 120. So when the Rangers are favored it would be -120, and when a dog it would be +120. I chose 120 as the Money Line as it seemed to be in the general range of past lines when the teams have met, and also because I do not view the value of being more specific worth the time.

23 games at a 1.75% PGP will yield a 40.25% return if the 23rd game is a win, and there i no losing streak in excess of 4 games.
Better Bettor Lady with Cash

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February 1, 2009

Super Bowl XLIII Preview

by @ 9:45 am. Filed under NFL, Wagering

Which Arizona is it going to be?
Arizona went 9-7 during the regular season and there wasn’t a single good win in those 9. Yes, they have won 3 playoff games, and I don’t mean to take anything away from the Cardinals, but beating Atlanta is something the Cards should have done. The win over Carolina was impressive but let’s not forget that Delhomme is a poor man’s Favre and he showed it that night throwing 6 INTs. The Cardinals winning may have been somewhat surprising, but the way the Panthers played was downright shocking. Lastly, tt could not have broken any better for Arizona when the Eagles beat the Giants and the NFC championship was held in Arizona. If the Cardinals had to come to the Meadowlands to play the NFC Championship game, they would not be in the Super Bowl. Again, I do not wish to take anything away from Arizona but they beat a team in the Eagles that was 9-6-1.

The Cards got smoked by New England, Minnesota, the Jets, the Giants, and the Eagles. 6 of their 9 regular season wins came against the 49ers, the Rams, and the Seahawks. The Cardinals are a hot team, not a great team.

Steeler RB Willie Parker ran for 146 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers in the divisional round. He also ran for 47 yards against the Ravens in the AFC Championship. Is the Cardinals defense more like the Ravens or the Chargers?

One proven advantage for an underdog is to not be taken seriously. I don’t think that exists with this game. Even last year, the Giants came in knowing that they could play with the Patriots based on the last game of the regular season. But that game was at the Meadowlands, and the Patriots took what everyone believed was the Giants best shot and the Pats still won. The Steelers will not and are not taking the Cardinals lightly. Mainly because its not what the Steelers do. Other reasons are that there is the personal aspect of former Steeler coaches being on the Cardinals sideline, and it was just last year that the Cardinals defeated the Steelers in the regular season. The element of surprise is not there for the Cardinals, and that is bad news for the Red Birds.

Here are a few more thoughts on today’s game:

The two weeks off is not good for a hot team, but it is for an offensive line.
Arizona has been hot in their previous 3 games. There is nothing about the Cardinals that 2 weeks of preparation will help. The Red Birds will not suddenly become more physical. The group that benefits most from extra time to prepare is the offensive line. The Steelers offensive line will reap the benefit of the extra week.

AZ’s coach is former Steeler assistant
I was quick to hop on a possible advantage the Cardinals may have since their head coach (Ken Wisenhunt) and offensive line coach (Russ Grimm) were Steeler assistants prior to going to Arizona. If there is any advantage here it is also with the Steelers since any tendency that Wisenhunt or Grimm know about the Steelers, Dick LeBeau (Pittsburgh’s defensive coordinator) knows a bout Wisenhunt and Grimm. Also, there are no secrets to the Steelers. They do what they do, and they don’t really disguise it. Unless Wisenhunt knows some secret words to upset Ben, I don’t see the Cardinals having an advantage with their coaches.

Man to man coverage won’t hurt the Steelers
Everyone keeps saying that the Steelers are going to have to go man-to-man in the secondary in order to bring pressure, and this will leave them helpless to cover the Cardinals wide receivers. This thought process is flawed for a couple of reasons. For one, the Steelers have ways of bringing pressure that do not require a depletion of personnel in the secondary. Also, the Steelers should not be fearful of going man-to-man. Larry Fitzgerald is great, without a doubt; however, his ability to catch the ball down the field over defenders is what has been spectacular, and more times than not its over multiple defenders who have good coverage on him. Lastly, the Cardinals big plays have been the result of trick plays. I don’t see the Steeler defense falling for flea flickers and the like. My last point here is, if the Steelers do pick up man in the secondary, it lessens the success of trick plays since the DBs will be focused on their man, not the trickeration in the backfield.

Great offenses may get shut down in Super Bowls, but great defenses don’t
There are times were great offenses have been kept under wraps in the Super Bowl. It happened last year with the Giants keeping the Patriots well beneath their offensive norms. It happened when the Giants beat the Bills super-charged offense in 1991. Conversely, there is no precedent for a great defense being blown out.

This is as close to a home game for Pittsburgh as can be.
If this game were in Pittsburgh would the line still be 7? The only difference will be the weather. The Cardinals were 1-4 on the road against teams with a winning record. And the one win (Panthers in the playoffs) is more attributable to Delhomme looking like the poor man’s Brett Favre that he is, more than to anything the Cardinals actually did.

My Prediction: Steelers 34 - Cardinals 13

My Wagers: 66% of my funds are going on PIT -6.5; and 33% of my funds are going on PIT -20.5 (+450)

Better Bettor Hot Steeler Lady

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January 18, 2009

NFL Conference Championship Games

by @ 12:27 pm. Filed under NFL, Wagering

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
The Eagles sure are playing well, but the Cardinals may actually be playing better. These two teams met on Thanksgiving night and it was a one-sided Eagle win, but things sure have changed. The Cardinal defense has changed its persona since that game and has a defense that is being vastly underrated by many. In addition, the Cardinals were unable to run the football on Thanksgiving, but they played that game without Edgerrin James. Both QBs have been in this spot before, but only the Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald. Look for Larry to have a big game and for the Cardinals to pull out a win.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
This is the third consecutive road game for the Baltimore Ravens and they are also short-handed. These two teams have played hyper-competitive games, of which the Steelers have won both. The line has moved in the direction of making the Ravens more attractive, starting at the Steelers -5 and has moved to Steelers -6, but the money is going to the Ravens. When there is Reverse Line Movement, it is a great indicator for who to place your money with. I will be taking the Steelers and give the points.

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January 10, 2009

NFL Divisional Playoffs

by @ 8:03 am. Filed under NFL, Wagering

By GODZILLA

It’s 27 degrees and snowing here in NJ, so why not sit for a few minutes and cap some NFL playoff games. While looking at these teams, I try to identify strengths and weaknesses along with the actual matchups. I must say that I prefer teams with character and physicality, so I will comment on that as well as the straight statistics.
 
Baltimore @ Tennessee - 3, 4:30PM
 
This should be quite a physical match-up here, of two very similar teams. Similar in a sense that they rely on their great defenses and efficient offenses. Their offensive and defensive numbers are nearly identical, with Baltimore’s total yardage numbers looking a tad bit better on both sides of the ball. First thing that strikes me is the line is consistent with the betting public- staying at -3 points for the Titans, due to the 50/50 split in bettors’ choices.
 
When I first looked at this game, my first instinct was to pick the Titans. But now, after a bit more thought, I like the Ravens. I think the strongest unit for both teams is the Ravens defense. Despite their awful game against the NY Giants, they were solid all year long. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed (the U baby!!!) are playmakers and leaders who will make it their personal challenges to shut down the Titans offense. Then you have the Ravens offense, led by Joe Flacco. True he’s a rookie with a rookie head coach. But unless the Titans shut down the run, Flacco can feed off the McGahey and McClain runs with a little playaction and make some easy throws to Heap and Mason- two tremendous possession receivers. Of course, it doesn’t help that Kyle Van den Bosch and Albert Haynseworth are not 100% for this game, meaning that the Ravens should run it between the tackles over and over again. Also, the Titans’ offense has Kevin Mawae out, and he’s their center.
 
Other thoughts- both played tough schedules this year, but I’m a little more impressed with the Ravens, as they lost to tougher teams. The Titans got beat badly by the Jets and Texans. The Jets game proved that the Titans can lose at home and the Ravens have the type of team that can win on the road.
 
I predict the Baltimore ground game will take over, with Joe Flacco making some key throws and the Ravens defense forcing a couple of turnovers and creating good field position the entire game. Baltimore will out-muscle Tennessee (especially w/ injuries) and win a hard-fought contest in an old-fashioned football game.
 
3 points is too many here… The Titans may be overrated due to all the hype when they were undefeated. Also, if 3 points is for home field advantage, it doesn’t necessarily apply to the Ravens, as they beat Dallas and Miami in must-win games, away.
 
Ravens 17, Titans 10
 
 
Arizona @ Carolina -10, 8:15PM
 
I know that 10 points is a lot to give, especially in an NFL playoff game of this magnitude, but I really dislike the Cardinals. To me, they were overrated when I heard some asshole on ESPN claim that they were an elite team (before the slide). The Cardinals are a gutless, overrated bunch. Lok who they beat: Seattle twice, St. Louis twice, San Francisco twice. So, they’re 6-0 against crap teams! Their other two wins come against Miami and Buffalo- both at home. I am not impressed.
 
A key matchup here is the Panthers Run offense vs. the Cards’ run defense. I see the Cards are solid, allowing only 107 yards rushing p/g., but struggled against good running teams like the Giants, Vikings, New England, and the Redskins, but were able to shut down Michael Turner last weekend. I’ll take the odds that they won’t be able to shut down the Panthers’ dual threat.
 
Now… Kurt Warner… Great QB. Possibly Hall of Fame material… I like this guy and am glad he had a big year. However… (and I actually did this research, didn’t read this anywhere) his QB Rating at home is 105.5, but only 88.8 on the road. He also got sacked 6 more times on the road than at home.
And the Cards’ pathetic rushing offense cannot make up for any slack if Warner doesn’t have a monster game.
 
The Cards are a sucky team on the road, but even worse when they travel to the East Coast, being 0-5 this year. They also score less points but allow more points on the road. Carolina, on the other hand is a GREAT home team, being undefeated at home. As a matter of fact, they score 29 points and give up 13 at home, while the Cards score 23 and give up 31.
 
But DAMN, 10 points??? Yeah, why not. The Cards have no heart…
 
Cardinals 14, Panthers 27

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January 8, 2009

BCS Bowl Game: Oklahoma Sooners and Florida Gators

by @ 6:56 pm. Filed under College FB, NHL, Streaming, Wagering

Florida Gators
I am not referring to this as the National Championship game as my effort toward non-violent protest. Now that the politics are out of the way, here is how I see tonight’s game gong down.

Oklahoma comes in scoring 60+ points per game their last 5 games. Pretty impressive, and even more impressive if you buy into the Big XII being an elite conference. Well, here is some news for you, the Big XII is not the SEC, and it isn’t even close.

I too was fooled this year into thinking that the Big XII and the SEC were on somewhat even ground. This Bowl Season has shown me that I was wrong. All the hoopla about Texas Tech, Texas, and Missouri was shown to be all hot air as the Red Raiders were embarrassed by Ole Miss (SEC) and Texas and Missouri were very unimpressive against very unimpressive Big X opponents. The clincher to me was watching #21 Blake Gideon for Texas try to play Safety. That kid wouldn’t sniff the field at an SEC school, NONE OF THEM, yet he is the starting safety for the Texas Longhorns. That is the difference in tonight’s game. There is no weakness for the Sooners to exploit, and all the weaknesses the Gators need to have a big night.

Too much speed at every position will prove to be too much for the Sooners and the Gators will win this game by at least 2 touchdowns.

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January 2, 2009

Godzilla’s Sugar Bowl Preview

by @ 6:55 pm. Filed under College FB, Wagering

By GODZILLA

Sugar Bowl, Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans, LA - 8PM
Utah vs. Alabama -9

How appropriate, Sweet Home Alabama playing in the Sugar bowl! As soon as I saw this game on the board, I thought the opening line would be close to -10, and right I was, because it opened at -11. Now, it’s at -9. I have a big problem with this, because most of the action is on Alabama, yet the line actually went down, as if most bettors are on Utah, which is not the case. To me, at least, this draws a red flag when handicapping this game. That said, I will continue with my analysis of the matchup.

Utah, although undefeated, was never considered an “elite” team. This is due to the fact that they don’t play in a BCS conference, though they have a history of playing like a BCS team. Their biggest wins are respectable (TCU, BYU, Oregon State), but I wouldn’t consider them to be Juggernauts just yet. Their toughest opponent, TCU, gave them hell, even if Andy Dalton had a bad game for TCU- uncharacteristically throwing 2 INT’s and completing less than 50% of his passes. TCU had more first downs, 150+ more total yards, and 4.9 yards per carry!!! Isn’t that some shit??? This was also AT Utah. The rest of their schedule was “cupcake city” as Dick Vitale would put it.

The level of competition that Alabama faced this year is a couple of light years ahead. They played the best teams in the SEC, their only loss being to a red hot UF team. The Tide showed their character throughout the season by blowing out teams like Arkansas, Clemson, Georgia, Auburn- and those are very tough teams, teams that I doubt Utah could compete with. THese teams are incredibly talented, though they are young and inconsistent. Alabama still put them away, and did so early in the ball game, relying on their defense to strike the will of the teams and force them into submission. Going undefeated shows resiliency and mental toughness, but to me, Alabama is a bit more tested, as they beat Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee AWAY, and AT NIGHT in incredibly hostile environments. Meanwhile, Utah played all their tough games (BYU, TCU, OSU) at the comfort of their home stadium.

The numbers Utah put up are just awesome. On offense, they are definitely well-balanced, scoring 37ppg, averaging 236 passing ypg and 136 rushing ypg. But feasting on weak prey, such as Utah State and Weber State should yield even greater results. Their offense is definitely not athletic and explosive like some of the other Top 25 teams, but they have guts, they make few bad plays, and they simply get it done in the clutch. The Utes’ defense is pretty solid, allowing 17ppg, 191pass ypg, 107 rush ypg. Pretty decent, but not jaw-dropping numbers. Their defense isn’t as quick, physical, or downright nasty as say USC, Penn State, Ohio State, or TCU’s. But they get the job done.

Alabama, after all these years, is still very much a running team. Their running game sets up Parker Wilson to start picking apart defenses and fall into a balanced attack. Their not very potent, nor are they as productive as Oklahoma, UF, or TT, but they know how to manage the clock and gain the tough yards when it counts. Alabama’s defense is what’s most impressive. They’re 2nd to USC’s defense, and I think USC’s defense is one of the best EVER. They have a ton of aggression and pride on that defense, applying pressure, tackling the right way, covering well, and just making plays.

Why Alabama will win: Physicality, competitiveness, athleticism, coaching experience

Why Utah will win: They have upset history, and the reverse line movement phenomenon

Conclusion: I see Alabama’s offensive and defensive lines controlling this game- pushing back their opponents at the line of scrimmage, and using their athleticism at the skill and sub-skill positions to make bigger plays. Utah is a smaller, slower team that’s not as tested… Alabama’s missing their best O lineman, but they had a chance to prepare the substituting talent to fill the void, and these SEC teams are always 2-3 deep in every position anyway. I see Alabama scoring 2-3 touchdowns on offense, perhaps a pick 6 or fumble return for a TD… and Utah struggling to consistently gain yards against this rabid defense. Remember: The reverse line movement scares the crap out of me. It happened to Oklahoma State, just happened to texas Tech, and this could be the Vegas Trifecta.

Alabama is like TCU on steroids, and Utah shouldn’t have beaten TCU in the first place. The Superdome will have 80% of the fans on the TIDE and their superior speed will shine of the turf.

But, all things being equal… Alabama linemen will blow the Utes off the ball, run by defenders with speed and athleticism, and show poise down the stretch. Look for the Defense to choke the Utes Offense, while the Bama Offense slowly chips away and wears down the smaller Utah defense…

Score: Utah 13, Alabama 27

Roll TIDE, roll!!!

Who is Godzilla?

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December 28, 2008

Today’s NFL Action

by @ 2:56 pm. Filed under NFL, Wagering

I played a lot of stuff today aside from the customary 15-team Money Line and Point Spread parlays. There are 11 teams that are playing to get into the playoffs today. Teams like the Falcons and Panthers are playing for postseason positioning, but they are in the playoffs no matter the outcome of their respective games. Other teams like the Eagles, need to win in order to stay alive but need other things to happen. Then you have teams like the Cowboys who only have to concern themselves with themselves.

So, there are 11 teams and 6 of them play each other. (DAL @ PHI, MIA @ NYJ, DEN @ SD) that means you know that there will be 3 teams that will lose today. If 68% of teams that play with something to lose, end up losing, then you can anticipate 68% of the 11 teams that meet the criteria to lose. That means there will be 7.5 teams out of the 11 that will lose today. We have already identified three of the possible teams, and eliminated 6 teams from the equation. So out of the 5 remaining teams, there is a high probability 3-4 of those teams will lose. It is highly probable because it plays to the mean. Now this does not mean anything is guaranteed. Averages are made up of many points along the spectrum of possibilities, some very far from the average in either direction. Today could be closer to 0% than it is 68%, or it could be closer to 100%. The point is to play to the average, and over time you will be near that average. When the average being played to is above 55%, all the better.

Here are the 11 teams that meet the criteria of needing to win today:
Cowboys, Eagles, Dolphins, Jets, Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bears, Ravens.
The first 6 teams are removed from the equation because we know that one of them will lose. (I know, unlike Donovan McNabb, that a tie is possible. Bust since we already had that highly improbable event occur this year, it is that much more unlikely to occur today). Those 6 teams will produce 3 losers. We are estimating a total of 6-7 losers out of the pool of 11 teams. Now the game is turned into either identifying which of those teams will lose, OR bet the Money Lines against each of those teams and when the average is produced you will have selected 3-4 Money Line winners. Being that many of the teams you will wager on are underdogs, you can perform beneath the average and still earn money today. If only one team wins, and let’s say its the Raiders at +450, then you are almost at even when only one of those games hit.

Here are all of today’s wagers:

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 4.5%
Oakland Raiders +450

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 2.4%
New York Giants +240

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win .66%
Houston Texans -150

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 4%
Jacksonville Jaguars +400

Money Line Wager Risking 1% to Win 2.3%
Buffalo Bills +225

4 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 5.9%
Detroit Lions +11, Houston Texans -3, Jacksonville Jaguars +10, Indianapolis Colts +3

4 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 5.9%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -600, Houston Texans -150, Atlanta Falcons -1000, Indianapolis Colts +125, Pittsburgh Steelers -600, Arizona Cardinals -290, San Francisco 49ers -145

15 Team Money Line Parlay Risking .5% to Win 729%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -600, Green Bay Packers -600, Philadelphia Eagles -125, New York Giants +240, Houston Texans -150, New Orleans Saints +105, Atlanta Falcons -1000, Kansas City Chiefs +120, Baltimore Ravens -500, Indianapolis Colts +125, Pittsburgh Steelers -600, Miami Dolphins +115, New England Patriots -265, Arizona Cardinals -290, San Francisco 49ers -145

15 Team Point Spread Parlay Risking .5% to Win 771%
Oakland Raiders +11, Detroit Lions +11, Philadelphia Eagles -1½, New York Giants +6½, Houston Texans -3, New Orleans Saints +1½, Atlanta Falcons -14, Kansas City Chiefs +2½, Jacksonville Jaguars +10½, Indianapolis Colts +3, Pittsburgh Steelers -11½, Miami Dolphins +2½, New England Patriots -5½, Arizona Cardinals -6½, San Francisco 49ers -3

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